Cardinals @ Cowboys

Cardinals @ Cowboys - Nov 3

Post Game Recap
November 08, 2025•4 min read

Post-Game Recap

cardinals-cowboys

Pre-Game Analysis

Both teams have struggled to stack wins this season. For Arizona, the offense has looked steadier with QB Jacoby Brissett than with Kyler Murray — a positive trend for the organization. For Dallas, a once-elite defense has been the root of several losses, piling pressure on the offense to be near-perfect; when it isn’t, the game slips.

Digging into the matchup data: over the last 10 head-to-head games, the Cardinals are 7–2 straight up and ATS. Given that history — plus how these meetings tend to play — there was also a lean to the Under 54.5 (a hefty total that past H2H trends have pushed under). That created angles on:

  • Cardinals +3.5

  • Under 54.5

  • 6-point teaser: Cardinals +10.5 / Under 61.5

Pre-Game Bet

  • Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 receptions (−150)
    Had hit 6 of 8 this season. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most receptions to TEs, frequently leaving the slot soft — a schematic edge for Dallas’ tight end.

Game Flow

The game opened slow. Dallas’ aggressive 4th-down decisions cost points. Philosophically, aggression can be +EV — but with the league’s worst defense, Dallas should take bankable points, especially with the best kicker in the league. Those early choices tend to boomerang: when you’re chasing late, you wish you’d pocketed the three. Arizona led 3–0 after Q1.

Before halftime, both teams finally found the end zone: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. scored, and QB Jacoby Brissett added one on the ground for Arizona; DE Marshawn Kneeland scored for Dallas off a blocked-punt recovery — a reminder the Cowboys’ defense/special teams still can swing sequences even if stops are scarce. Cardinals led 17–7 at the half.

After the break, TE Trey McBride punched in a third-quarter TD. Dallas moved the ball but stalled at the money moments: 0–3 on 4th downs and two fumbles recovered by Arizona. The Cowboys simply couldn’t cash drives. Final: Cardinals 27, Cowboys 17.

Team Notes

Cardinals

  • QB Jacoby Brissett is firmly QB1 and added a rushing TD, throwing for 261 yards. The offense is more composed with him at the helm.

  • RB Emari Demercado led the backfield: 14 carries, 79 yards; RB Bam Knight: 9 carries for 27 yards.

  • WR Marvin Harrison Jr. delivered the alpha line you expect: 96 yards and a TD. His chemistry with Brissett is clearly building; expect heavy involvement vs. Seattle in Week 10.

  • TE Trey McBride (5 targets, TD) remains the most consistent non-Harrison option.

Cowboys

  • QB Dak Prescott: 24/39, 250 yards — spread the ball to all key weapons but couldn’t convert in high-leverage downs. Live-bet note: if Dallas trails at half, look at Dak's passing yard prop to get 100–125 more as he will throw the ball lots in the second half. If it's a blowout, this will not be a good bet because he may be taken out of the game.

  • RB Javonte Williams: 15 carries, 83 yards. Dallas ran more than expected while trailing — useful forward info: Williams’ rush overs can still have value even with the Cowboy's trailing.

  • WR CeeDee Lamb: 7 for 85; WR George Pickens: 6 for 79; TE Jake Ferguson: 5 for 50 — exactly the usage Dallas needs; the scoreboard simply didn’t reflect the yardage.

  • Tragic news: Marshawn Kneeland scored his first career TD in this game; three days later he passed away. Our deepest condolences to his family and teammates. It’s a stark reminder: never take anything — in sports or life — for granted.

Betting Lessons

  • Let Trends Inform, Not Dictate.
    The 7–2 H2H and repeated Under trend framed the board, but trends are a starting point — you still need current-form context (injuries, play-calling tendencies, 4th-down aggression, turnover risk).

  • One High-Conviction Bet > Many Small Sprinkles (for certain bettors).
    If your temperament and process lean toward pre-game edges, consider one premium position (e.g., Ferguson receptions, Cardinals +3.5, or an Under) rather than a dozen low-confidence adds. Fewer decisions, cleaner post-mortems, steadier variance.

  • Take the Points When Your Defense Can’t Get Stops.
    Dallas’ 4th-down choices compounded late-game math. In similar profiles (poor defense, elite kicker), field goals protect live middles and preserve teaser legs — and often keep your script live into Q4.

  • Exploit Schematic Matchups Repeatedly.
    Arizona’s TE coverage profile (4th-most TE receptions allowed) made Ferguson O4.5 a process bet. These matchup constants (slot leaks, RB check-down rates, red-zone target trees) travel week-to-week better than vibes.

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