Conference Recap & Superbowl Insights
Conference Championship Newsletter Picks 3-0 ✅(15-3 in last 18)
Rhamondre Stevenson o70.5 Rush+Receiving (-115, PointsBet) ✅
Analysis: Stevenson has cemented himself as the Patriots' lead back this postseason, dominating in touches and efficiency. The Broncos are top-2 in both fewest rushing yards and fewest receiving yards against running backs this year, but they have also had a relatively soft schedule this year in that they've inflated stats against average-at-best RBs such as Tony Pollard, Woody Marks, Kareem Hunt and Chris Rodriguez. Playing against a backup QB in Jarrett Stidham, expect the Patriots to control the clock, minimize opportunities for the opposing defense and lean on the run as they have been in the last month of the season.
Review: Stevenson was used as the main back all game. He had 2 targets in the air, but he didn’t catch either one. The weather changed from playable weather to unplayable weather with the snow. This forced the Patriots to run the ball and Stevenson rushed for 71 yards. The reason we were able to cash in on this bet was due to the Patriots leading the game, running the ball to run down the clock, and the weather.
Kenneth Walker o2.5 receptions (-152, Pinnacle) ✅
Analysis: Kenneth Walker had a career day last week against the 49ers, and now that his backfield mate Zach Charbonnet has been placed on IR with a torn ACL, he should own the vast majority of running back snaps. The Rams have allowed the 7th-most receptions to running backs and the 4th-most targets to running backs this year, and in what will likely be the higher scoring matchup of the weekend, the game script will be favourable for Walker to see several check-downs.
Review: Walker split reps with 3rd string Holani, but was active right from kickoff. He tallied 2 receptions in the 1st half and then 2 in the 2nd half. With a pile of elite receivers, the Rams defense were focused on covering them, which opened the opportunity to target the running backs. The lead changes also helped with the throwing script for the Seahawks.
Seahawks ML (-134, FanDuel) ✅
Analysis: While both teams possess offensive firepower, the Seahawks defense is superior to that of the Rams. The Seahawks allow 285.9 yards per game and have not conceded a touchdown during the playoffs, while the Rams allow 327.5 yards per game and have conceded 6 touchdowns so far this post-season. Seattle has the fourth-highest pressure rate (38.9 percent of dropbacks) in the NFL, while Matthew Stafford has the lowest passer rating under pressure (24.8) of any signal-caller participating in the 2025 playoffs. The Rams are on their 3rd straight away game and enter a hostile away environment they previously lost in week 16 this year.
Review: The Seahawks were better on both sides of the ball. Poor clock management by the Rams at the end of the first half allowed for the Seahawks to get a touchdown in 74 seconds. This caused the Rams to play from behind in the 2nd half, but the Seahawks kept answering.
Blog Picks 2-0 ✅
Patriots / Seahawks Moneyline Parlay (+149, Fanduel)
Patriots +3.5 / Seahawks +3.5 Parlay (-118, Fanduel)
The Patriots and Seahawks both won and therefore cashed both plays. Overall 5-0.
Conference Finals Recaps
LAR 27 @ SEA 31
Rams (14-6): The Rams put up a strong fight, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Seattle. MVP Stafford threw for 374 yards, and the big three — Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, and Puka Nacua — all found the end zone. The Rams are at their best when all of these players are involved, and even with that firing on all cylinders, it still wasn’t enough, showing that the better team won. Looking back at the Rams’ final regular-season games and playoff run, they never truly dominated. They played at par with other teams and were fortunate to escape with wins against the Panthers and Bears in the playoffs. Good news is Stafford won MVP and will return next season.
Seahawks (16-3): The Seahawks entered the playoffs with a massive advantage thanks to the first-round bye, and they immediately showed it in the Divisional Round with a level of dominance no other team matched. That same push carried over into this matchup and proved too much for the Rams to handle. This game felt like the true Super Bowl-caliber matchup, and Seattle came out on top. Darnold threw for 346 yards, while Kenneth Walker, Smith-Njigba, Jake Bobo, and Cooper Kupp all scored touchdowns. Kupp’s touchdown against his former team sealed the win. The Seahawks have been a powerhouse all season and fully earned this victory. They are more than prepared to win the Super Bowl.
NE 10 @ DEN 7
Patriots (15-3): The Patriots were on the right side of a brutal snowstorm and embraced a “bring it on” mentality against the Broncos’ offense late in the game. Conditions were so poor that neither team could move the ball consistently. New England chose to punt rather than risk going for it on fourth down, trusting their defense to make stops in the weather — and it paid off. Vrabel managed the clock perfectly with a run-heavy approach and repeated punts that continually shortened the game and limited Denver’s opportunities. The win wasn’t pretty, but it was more than enough to punch a ticket to the Super Bowl.
Broncos (15-3): Jarrett Stidham started the game strong and helped the Broncos strike early, making it look like Denver could put up a real fight. However, they failed to score again the rest of the way. The weather played a major role in the offensive regression for both teams, as moving the ball became nearly impossible. Denver was also put in a difficult spot with Bo Nix out, forcing a backup quarterback to start for the first time since 2023. While Stidham held his own, the Broncos were ultimately outcoached by Vrabel, whose clock management dictated the game.
Super Bowl
After a long season, we’ve finally reached the Super Bowl. If you’ve been following us, you’re in profit and can sit back and enjoy the game. As a fan, there’s nothing better than watching the biggest game of the year — but that’s the key point: it’s only one game. As a sports bettor, the money should already have been made throughout the season, allowing you to enjoy this matchup without feeling the need to force action.
The Super Bowl consistently becomes one of the most heavily bet games of the year because it’s entertainment, not because the markets offer more edge than any other game. If you’re betting for entertainment, bet on things that make the game more fun to watch and give you a side to cheer for. If you’re betting to make money, stay true to your analysis and trends — not the narratives being pushed by the media.
In 2023, I sat in Vegas at Caesar's Superbowl Watch Party and cashed in big with a live bet on the Chiefs at halftime. In 2024, I had a Chiefs +2 / Under 48.5 teaser that cashed. In 2025, SHS gave out one play: Eagles +9 / Over 41 (teaser) and it cashed. This year, the play is: Seahawks +3.5 / Under 52.5. The key to winning money on the Superbowl is treating it like a regular game and staying away from all of the noise.
SHS Newsletter Picks finished the season 43-29 (59.72%) for a +12.91% ROI (+9.3 units). There’s no reason to risk those profits on this game. If you're looking for a straight that we like it's the under 45.5. Both teams prefer to drain the clock with long, methodical possessions and the defense on both sides is elite. On January 7th, we predicted the Superbowl matchup and now we are here. Who do we have winning it all? The Seattle Seahawks are the better team overall. There isn't any value on their pre game moneyline at -238. In a 50/50 matchup, the value is on the Patriots at +195.
Enjoy the game and stay tuned for next week's final recap post of the season.
