Divisional Recap & Conference Insights
Divisional Round Newsletter Picks 2-1 ✅ (12-3 in last 15)
Jake Tonges o34.5 Rec Yards (-115, BallyBet) ✅
Analysis: With superstar TE George Kittle out for the remainder of the season, backup TE Jake Tonges steps into the starting role. Tonges will face a Seahawks defense that, while a formidable unit overall, surrenders the 6th-most yards to opposing tight ends. Given the thin receiving weapons around him and an offensive scheme that prioritizes the tight end, this appears to be a great spot for Tonges to produce.
Review: Jake Tonges led the 49ers in receptions and was involved right from the start. He cleared 34.5 easily in the first half, and it was a good thing he did because he later left the game with an injury and didn’t return.
Seahawks/49ers total points u45.5 (-110, theScore Bet) ❌
Analysis: In their last meeting just a few weeks ago, the total amounted to just 16 points. In their previous matchup earlier this year, the total was 30 points. It may be a sample size of two, but neither team has shown an ability to score against one another the way they typically do against other opponents. Given the comfortable margin that this has hit by twice this year, expect similar results.
Review: The Seahawks defense was strong once again, and the offense wouldn’t take its foot off the gas. The game was set up to cash the under, but Kenneth Walker took that from us—clearly motivated to score a hat trick. The total landed on 47, making this a good bet and a bad beat.
Bears +4 (-106, Pinnacle) ✅
Analysis: The Rams are historically bad against the Bears, having won only 14 of their 37 regular-season matchups. In recent years, they have lost all four of their previous games against Chicago. They were double-digit favorites in last week’s game against the Panthers, but they barely won. On top of that, they have dropped three of their last four away games. The stars seemed to be aligning for the Bears to upset the apparent favorites, but they should at least be able to keep it close.
Review: Caleb Williams threw a Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the game to send it to overtime. The Bears were trailing by 7 and needed a touchdown, and he got it. In overtime, they came up short but held the Rams to a field goal and covered the +4.
Blog Picks 3-7 ❌
Blog Picks are not official calls. They are additional bets we reviewed that did not make the cut but could still have an angle. Blog picks include higher-risk plays such as parlays, teasers, and straights, but they are considered leans—not bets. We have a selective process when making our Newsletter Picks, and this has resulted in a 14-3 run. Let’s review the blog picks and go over why we liked or disliked the bets.
Broncos ML: Not a bet we wanted to take because of fandom, but we knew it was a sharp play. The narrative about the Bills going to the Super Bowl because Mahomes, Lamar, and Burrow weren’t in the playoffs had the public following the media. Lots of people ignored the problems the Bills have on both sides of the ball and the fact that the Broncos defense is a top unit.
Woody Marks o56.5 rush yards: The Patriots defense has been stopping the run, and we expected Houston to be throwing the ball while playing from behind, limiting Marks’ usage on the ground—and we were correct.
Seattle -6.5 / 49ers +7.5: Taken as a middle for Seattle to win by 7, a key number. The -6.5 won and the +7.5 side lost, making this a very small loss.
RJ Harvey o55.5 rush yards: Despite the Bills having a weak run defense, they have been giving up less because game scripts have forced the other team to throw. Harvey did not see much action in the run game.
McCaffrey o50.5 rec yards: With key players out, we knew he would see an increase in targets, but this didn’t make the cut because it was heavily marketed to the public. We were more confident in Jake Tonges, and we got that read correct.
Zach Charbonnet Anytime TD / Over 45.5 rushing yards: Although he’s been the red-zone guy all year, Walker had himself a game. This is the issue with split backfields—you never know when one guy is going to go off. In addition, Charbonnet tore his ACL, so he left the game and increased Walker’s workload. Injuries are always a factor you can’t predict, but split backs are usually a sign to be cautious.
Houston +3.5: This had nothing to do with our opinion of the game—it was a simple indicator of sharp money. We knew Stroud had been awful, but we expected more from the defense.
Bears +10 / 49ers +13: We got the Bears, but did not expect the 49ers to implode.
Trends
The favorites swept the Divisional Round, showing no mercy for sharp bettors. We call that a chalk week. Chalk is a betting term that refers to the favorites. It originated in horse racing, when bookmakers used chalk to write lines on blackboards. The favorites would commonly be erased because the lower odds would get more action.
Out of 4 games:
Moneyline
Favorites won: 4 of 4 (100%)
2 of 4 (50%) winning teams led time of possession.
Spread
Favorites covered: 3 of 4 (75%) — Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots
Underdogs covered: 1 of 4 (25%) — Bears
Average margin: 13.2 points
Most common margin: 3 points
Total
Games went Over: 3 of 4 (75%)
Games went Under: 1 of 4 (25%)
Average total: 47.8 points
Average first-half total: 27.8 points
1 of 4 (25%) finished under 24.5 points in the first half.
Divisional Recaps
BUF 30 @ DEN 33
Bills (13-6-0): A 10-point swing in the final 33 seconds of the half gave the Broncos the edge. Buffalo had a strong second half and forced overtime but couldn’t pull through. They outgained the Broncos by 100 yards and dominated time of possession, but turnovers and bad calls were enough to send them home. The Bills’ five turnovers were the decisive factor. James Cook III’s 117 rushing yards were a bright spot. The Bills’ season is over, and a shift in leadership appears to be coming with the firing of head coach Sean McDermott.
Broncos (15-3-0): Bo Nix’s heroics led Denver to a stunning victory, as they covered the spread and took down the Bills. The Broncos’ winning formula was protecting the ball (just one turnover) and making the most of limited possessions, with Nix throwing for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Marvin Mims Jr.’s eight catches for 93 yards were crucial. As they head into a matchup against the Patriots as +4.5 underdogs, the Broncos will look to replicate this performance with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
SF 6 @ SEA 41 (Divisional)
49ers (13-6-0): A dismal second half sealed the 49ers’ fate, as they failed to score a single point after halftime. This lackluster performance resulted in them not covering the spread, a disappointing outcome for those who backed them. The Seahawks’ dominant first half built a lead that proved insurmountable. Brock Purdy’s legs were a lone bright spot with 37 rushing yards, but his passing left much to be desired, including an interception. Jake Tonges was strong for us, clearing his o34.5 receiving yards in the first half. The 49ers’ season comes to a close, and they’ll look to get healthy for next year.
Seahawks (15-3-0): In a statement win, the Seahawks ran roughshod over the 49ers, with Kenneth Walker III’s three touchdowns leading the charge. This dominant win covered the spread and sent a message to the rest of the division. Walker’s performance has major prop implications moving forward, as he appears to be the focal point of the offense. The team controlled the game and committed zero turnovers, and Sam Darnold’s efficient outing didn’t hurt either. As small favorites at -2.5 next week against the Rams, Seattle will look to build on this momentum and prove this wasn’t a one-off.
HOU 16 @ NE 28
Texans (13-6-0): A promising end to the season hit a speed bump as the Texans’ offense was stifled by the Patriots’ stingy defense. Despite dominating third downs (41% conversion rate vs. New England’s 21%), Houston couldn’t capitalize, scoring just 16 points. Their recent trend of averaging 30 points per game was halted, and their usually stout defense allowed 28—a far cry from the 6 points per game they’d been surrendering. C.J. Stroud’s four interceptions were a major factor, and the inability to establish the run (Woody Marks managed 17 yards on 14 carries) made the task even more daunting. The Texans’ season is over, and they’ll have plenty of film to review after Stroud’s shipwreck of a performance.
Patriots (15-3-0): In a reversal of recent form, the Patriots’ offense found its footing, with Drake Maye throwing three touchdowns and just one interception. This breakout came despite being outgained and struggling on third downs (21%). The key was capitalizing on Texans mistakes, turning five turnovers into crucial points. Rhamondre Stevenson’s steady presence, along with Kayshon Boutte’s explosive plays, gave New England the balance it needed. Looking ahead to their matchup against Denver as -4.5 favorites, the Patriots will try to prove this offensive resurgence is more than a one-week spike.
LAR 20 @ CHI 17
Rams (14-5-0): In a defensive battle where both teams struggled to find rhythm, the Rams’ ability to capitalize on Bears mistakes proved decisive. Despite being outgained by 77 yards, Los Angeles secured a hard-fought 20-17 overtime win with a strong defensive effort. The turning point came when Caleb Williams threw his third interception, setting up the Rams’ overtime field goal. Kyren Williams was the standout, punching in two rushing touchdowns. As the Rams head to Seattle next week as +2.5 underdogs, the line feels appropriate given their recent trend of close games.
Bears (12-7-0): A strong performance ultimately went unrewarded, as three Caleb Williams interceptions undermined an otherwise impressive showing. Chicago couldn’t get ahead early and needed another fourth-quarter comeback. Williams’ Hail Mary touchdown to force overtime was one of the clutchest plays of the season. It was all smiles as they advanced into field goal territory in OT, but an interception ended their season. The Bears dominated time of possession and third-down conversions, but couldn’t overcome self-inflicted damage. They did, however, cover as 4-point underdogs. Chicago has a lot to look forward to next year—Ben Johnson is in the Coach of the Year conversation, and Williams looked like a top-5 quarterback in only his second season.
Conference Championships Preview
Here’s a look at the Conference Championship matchups.
Sunday, January 25 at 3:00 PM ET
NE @ DEN (Line: NE -4.5, Total: 42.5)
The Broncos opened as +5.5 underdogs, but the line has moved to +3.5, indicating sharp support. Stidham hasn’t played since 2023, but you know people are watching practice closely for confirmation that his arm is live—and he must look good. Overall, +3.5 is similar to +5.5 in terms of key numbers because you’re still only crossing one field goal.
The entire week has been about how many points bettors think Nix is worth compared to Stidham, and the general consensus was 3. For the line to move two points when Nix got hurt and then adjust back toward that number shows where money is landing: the Broncos defense. Remember, Denver didn’t consistently produce great offense even with Nix, so we can’t overreact. Trust the defense.
Sunday, January 25 at 6:30 PM ET
LAR @ SEA (Divisional) (Line: SEA -2.5, Total: 46.5)
Let’s use SHS Recaps to take a deeper dive into the two matchups earlier this season.
Week 11 — November 16
SEA 19 @ LAR 21
Seahawks (7-3): The Seahawks missed a long end-of-game field goal and lost. They led time of possession by 15 minutes and had 14 more first downs, but went 1-for-4 in the red zone while the Rams went 3-for-4. The stats show Seattle controlled this game, but the inability to convert in the red zone was why they lost. It was a heavy pass script for Sam Darnold, who threw for 279 yards. His top targets were Jaxon Smith-Njigba (9 rec, 105 yards) and A.J. Barner (10 rec, 70 yards). The backfield was split between Walker and Charbonnet, and when they split reps it can be bad for player props. The most reliable bet remains Smith-Njigba. Seattle also kept their perfect road ATS record and cashed our second newsletter pick of the week.
Rams (8-2): The Rams are one of my top-ranked teams to win the Super Bowl. They have the complete package, and Stafford can win close games. This game showed that even without having the ball often, they’re efficient enough to win. Yes, they benefited from a missed field goal, but getting statistically dominated and still winning is impressive. This is what playoff football looks like. The Rams scored two touchdowns in the first quarter—one by Kyren Williams and one by Davante Adams. That early success kept them afloat. Stafford threw for only 130 yards, and 75 of them went to Puka Nacua. Nacua had seven catches, while the next closest was Colby Parkinson with two receptions, including a TD. The run game was split between Williams and Corum, but Williams went 91 yards on 12 carries, while Corum had 10 yards on 8 carries.
Week 16 — December 18
LAR 37 @ SEA 38
Rams (11-4-0): The Rams blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost in overtime after failing to stop a 2-point conversion. Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns. Kyren Williams had 23 carries for 70 yards. Blake Corum added 14 carries for 48 yards and scored a touchdown. Corum got the red-zone touches, which is worth noting for TD props. Puka Nacua was the top target with 12 receptions for 225 yards on 16 targets and two touchdowns. Konata Mumpfield added three receptions for 40 yards.
Seahawks (12-3-0): The Seahawks edged out the Rams 38-37. Darnold threw for 270 yards and two TDs but also tossed two interceptions. Kenneth Walker III had 11 carries for 100 yards and a TD. Zach Charbonnet added 9 carries for 32 yards and a TD. The backfield was split, but Walker’s breakout runs were a big part of the comeback. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the receivers with 8 catches for 96 yards on 13 targets and a TD. A.J. Barner had 4 catches for 49 yards.
Key Points for the NFC Conference Championship
They meet for the third time this season. The Seahawks have covered in both games against the spread, with the moneyline split 1-1. Seattle missed a field goal to win the first game, and won the second on a 2-point conversion. Both games were neck-and-neck, but Darnold’s turnovers remain the controversial stat hanging over them.
As of late, the Rams aren’t producing at the rate they were earlier this season. A concerning end to their regular-season campaign has continued into the playoffs, and each game has come down to the wire. Against the Panthers, the Rams had to score a touchdown on their last drive and did with 40 seconds left. Then last week against the Bears, they survived, but needed a late pick to stay alive. In reality, they probably should’ve lost that game.
The edge goes to the Seahawks. They’ve been dominant on both sides of the ball, and the defense looked incredible against the 49ers. If the offense plays a steady game, they should be able to win.
If we use the Carolina Panthers games as a comparative angle, Seattle also gets the edge. The Seahawks beat Carolina 27-10, while the Rams lost 31-28 and won 34-31. This lets us step away from direct head-to-head and compare performance against a common opponent.
For running back props, Kyren Williams was the guy last week, but our recaps show Corum has been involved against Seattle this season. We haven’t been able to predict the Rams’ usage all year, and it has forced bad bets. That’s why we avoid Rams RB props and instead look at Seattle, where Walker has been heavily involved. With Charbonnet out, we have an edge knowing Walker should handle the majority of the workload.
Conference Championship Newsletter Picks
Sunday, Jan 25th — 3:00 PM: Patriots @ Broncos
Rhamondre Stevenson o70.5 Rush+Receiving (-115, PointsBet). Stevenson has cemented himself as the Patriots’ lead back this postseason, dominating touches and efficiency. The Broncos are top-2 in both fewest rushing yards and fewest receiving yards allowed to running backs this year, but they’ve also benefited from a relatively soft schedule—padding numbers against average-at-best backs like Tony Pollard, Woody Marks, Kareem Hunt, and Chris Rodriguez. With Jarrett Stidham at QB for Denver, expect New England to control the clock, minimize opportunities for the opposing defense, and lean on the run like they have over the last month.
Sunday, Jan 25th — 6:30 PM: Rams @ Seahawks
Kenneth Walker o2.5 receptions (-152, Pinnacle). Walker had a career day last week against the 49ers, and with Charbonnet placed on IR, he should own the vast majority of RB snaps. The Rams have allowed the 7th-most receptions and the 4th-most targets to running backs this year, and in what should be the higher-scoring matchup, the game script sets up well for Walker to see multiple check-downs.
Seahawks ML (-134, FanDuel). Both teams have offensive firepower, but the Seahawks defense is clearly superior. Seattle allows 285.9 yards per game and hasn’t conceded a touchdown in the playoffs, while the Rams allow 327.5 yards per game and have conceded six touchdowns this postseason. Seattle has the 4th-highest pressure rate (38.9% of dropbacks), while Matthew Stafford has the lowest passer rating under pressure (24.8) of any QB in the 2025 playoffs. The Rams are on their third straight road game and head into a hostile environment where they already lost in Week 16.
Blog Picks
We have the Patriots and the Seahawks going to the Super Bowl. We predicted this on January 7th, so we’re cheering for that. Two blog picks that complement that angle are below. Shop around for the best odds.
Patriots/Seahawks Moneyline Parlay (+149, FanDuel)
Patriots +3.5 / Seahawks +3.5 Parlay (-118, FanDuel)
