Rams @ Jaguars — Post-Game Recap

Pre-Game Bets

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (−120)
Williams had scored in two straight games, and with WR Puka Nacua out, he was projected to be a focal point of the Rams’ offense. Lines moved from −120 to −140 pre-kickoff, but you can always take these bets live at better off if he hasn’t scored already.

Live Bets

1st Half Under 23.5

It was 14-0 Rams when the bet was placed. The Rams were backed up deep in their own end zone and needed a long drive to add points.

A sustained drive would chew clock; if they failed, it likely ended in a punt or a short field-goal attempt. With 9 points of cushion, the total could withstand three field goals or one TD, making this a sharp under spot.

The Rams methodically drove the field and scored a TD. On the following series, the Jaguars pushed to scoring range but on 4th & 7 went for it and failed. They opted to go because they needed a touchdown to stay competitive—helping the under, because a made FG would have landed the half total at 24.

Earlier in the game the Jags missed a 4th-and-3 field goal, likely influenced by cold, rainy London weather. Missed kicks often cause coaches to go for it on later 4th downs, which again aided the under.

1st Half Props & Halftime Setup

Halftime score: 21-0 Rams.

This opened plenty of opportunity—but we had to respect blowout risk. The script forced Trevor Lawrence to throw.
His live line was over 249.5 passing yards, and he sat at 105.

Using the SHS Scoreboard App, we confirmed via the Depth Chart that WR Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Travis Hunter were the top two wideouts. Checking the Live Stats tab verified they were active and getting looks—a key step, since injuries or defensive mismatches can shift target share mid-game.

Once verified, we examined receptions and yardage markets. Any live line below pre-game projections offered high-value spots, because the game script perfectly favored passing volume.

On the Rams’ side, the 3rd quarter would start with the full lineup but likely heavy rushing to burn clock.
If Jacksonville rallied, the Rams would keep starters in; if not, expect backups.

That meant the best halftime look was Rams RB Blake Corum over rushing yards.
Both Kyren Williams and Corum had split the backfield early, but blowout game scripts lean toward backups finishing drives.

Rams Notes

• QB Matt Stafford played textbook football, throwing five TD passes and demonstrating complete command. Even without Nacua, he spread the ball efficiently—especially to Davante Adams, who elevated into the WR1 role.
  ➤ Stafford over 1.5 passing TDs will be the top pre-game look in future weeks.

• RB Kyren Williams / Blake Corum split carries evenly. Having bet Williams Anytime TD, it was brutal to watch him repeatedly miss red-zone snaps. One near-score was ruled short, and as the blowout grew, his odds dropped while his usage disappeared. Late in the 4th (5 minutes remaining), the Rams got back in the red zone but left Williams on the bench—false hope.
  ➤ Because of the unpredictable backfield split, it’s smarter to wait and live-bet Anytime TDs based on who’s actually on the field.

• WR Davante Adams took full advantage of Nacua’s absence, catching 3 TDs—all short-range (1-2 yards). Those would typically be RB scores, but in this game they all went through the air, highlighting why short-yardage passing can cannibalize RB TD props.

Jaguars Notes

• QB Trevor Lawrence was overwhelmed, sacked six times, and failed to capitalize on 4th-down chances (2-of-6 conversions). We grabbed his live over 248.5 yards at halftime (down 21-0), matching the passing-script thesis; he finished with 296 yards, easily cashing.

• WR Travis Hunter caught his first career TD, hauling in 8 receptions for 101 yards. He’s now a legitimate target-to-watch in trailing scripts.

• WR Brian Thomas Jr. looked like a potential live play but didn’t emerge as the top option in this particular matchup.

Key Betting Lessons

1. Track Anytime TD Odds In-Game

Kyren Williams’ line movement shows how much live timing matters:

Pre-game −140
2nd drive (1Q 5:15) −105
End 1Q +130
3rd drive (2Q 11:08) +160
4th drive (2Q 4:37) +230
5th drive (2Q 1:28) +260
Halftime +370
3rd quarter +800

Pre-game juice is often poor value. If a player historically scores later, it’s smarter to skip the pre-game −140 and buy in live at +300 to +400 under the right game conditions.

2. Use Game Script Logic, Not Hope

With a 21-0 lead, blowout scripts flip usage. Recognize when starters sit and when backups take over; that’s how you spot props like Corum over rushing yards instead of chasing Williams TDs.

3. Correlate Live Markets to Depth Charts

Always verify who’s actually on the field via live data. Injuries, rotations, or weather shifts can make a receiver or RB instantly more valuable than pre-game projections suggest.

4. Halftime Reset = Information Edge

By halftime you have complete first-half data. When the script is obvious (like a team trailing 21-0), you can isolate one or two props—Lawrence over passing yards, or top-WR receptions—and beat inefficient live lines.

Both teams are on bye next week.