Ravens @ Dolphins - October 30
Post-Game Recap
Pre-Game Outlook
A matchup of two struggling teams, the Baltimore Ravens (2-5) and Miami Dolphins (2-6), both coming off impressive wins. The Ravens beat the Bears 30-16 without Lamar Jackson, showing defensive improvement. The Dolphins upset the Falcons 34-10, creating a false sense of resurgence on both sides of the ball.
With Lamar returning from a four-week hamstring injury, the expectation was a conservative game plan: Lamar throwing more, Derrick Henry handling the ground work, and the team protecting its star QB from reinjury. That led to two key pre-game leans:
Lamar Jackson Under rushing yards (40.5)
Derrick Henry Over rushing yards (86.5)
The Dolphins’ prior success stopping Falcon's Bijan Robinson looked encouraging, but with Henry’s heavier workload and big-play potential, he could clear his line in one breakaway run.
For Miami, the key was ball security. Tagovailoa had finally avoided turnovers in Week 8, and if he could maintain that rhythm with Achane, Waddle, Gordon, and Washington, they’d stay competitive. But the historical trends favored Baltimore — 7-3 in the last 10 matchups, 8-2 ATS, and Over in 6 of 10.
The pre-game position was a 6-point teaser: Ravens -2.5 / Over 43, targeting both trends while buying down key numbers.
The Game
Miami started with good field position but stalled, settling for an early field goal. Their offense quickly sputtered, while Baltimore’s first two drives ended in Mark Andrews touchdowns, giving the Ravens control early.
At 17 points total late in the 2nd quarter, the first-half total had moved from 24 → 30.5. As Miami lined up for another field goal, the line dropped to 27.5, and that’s when I stepped in — a sharp live 1H Under 27.5 play based on tempo and drive quality. The half ended 14-6, easily cashing the Under with a touchdown to spare.
At halftime, both Henry (+115) and Achane (+120) were still without TDs — improved odds from their pre-game lines (-220 / -141). But with a low-scoring game and little offensive rhythm, I stayed disciplined and didn’t add exposure.
The second half was all Ravens. The Dolphins offense collapsed with turnovers and poor execution, while the Ravens coasted to an easy 28-6 win, covering the spread but staying well Under the total (34 points).
The teaser missed due to Miami’s complete offensive breakdown, but the process was correct — the game script unfolded as expected, only without the Dolphins’ side doing their part.
Ravens Notes
QB Lamar Jackson: Efficient and patient in his return — 18/23 passing, 218 yards, 4 TDs, and just 14 rushing yards. The Under on his rushing line (40.5) hit comfortably.
RB Derrick Henry: 19 carries, 119 yards, with most gains coming late as Baltimore drained the clock. His Over (86.5) cashed easily.
TE Mark Andrews: The red-zone hero, 2 TDs on 2 receptions, validating his +185 pre-game Anytime TD odds as value.
WR Zay Flowers: Team-high 5 receptions for 64 yards, showing the balanced distribution that Baltimore lacked earlier this season.
Baltimore looks revitalized. With Lamar healthy and Henry setting the tone, they should continue to roll heading into Week 10 @ Minnesota.
Dolphins Notes
QB Tua Tagovailoa: 25/40, 261 yards, 1 INT. The crowd booed as the offense repeatedly misfired. He struggled with timing, forcing throws and missing reads.
RB De’Von Achane: Quietly productive — 67 rushing yards, 39 receiving yards — covering both props (o56.5 rushing yards/ o32.5 receiving yards). Despite these bets covering, the decision not to put these in the newsletter was the right call given the game script and data.
WR Jaylen Waddle: 6 receptions, 82 yards. Solid numbers but lacks consistency as WR1.
Team outlook: Miami fired GM Chris Grier postgame. At 2-7, this team is in disarray. With morale low and major organizational change ahead, they are an avoid team for betting going forward.
The Dolphins host the Bills in Week 10 — a historically bad matchup for them — while the Ravens continue trending upward toward playoff contention.
Key Betting Lessons
Injury context matters: The Ravens adjusted perfectly around Lamar’s limitations.
Game flow discipline: Recognizing a slow tempo and grabbing a live Under 27.5 was a smart, data-backed play.
Live betting patience: Sometimes not adding more risk is the best move.
Avoid perception bias: One big win doesn’t fix systemic issues — the Dolphins’ Week 8 performance was an illusion.
Final: Ravens 28, Dolphins 6
Teaser Result: ❌ (Ravens -2.5 ✅ / Over 43 ❌)
Live Bet: ✅ 1H Under 27.5
