Post-Game Recap

Pre-Game Analysis

Going into Week 7, the Steelers are 4-1, while the Bengals are 2-4. 73% of the money placed on the Steelers moneyline at -250, meaning a lot of the public bettors took the Steelers to win. Several trends go against the Steelers, and HC Mike Tomlin has struggled in Thursday night games, giving the Bengals an edge. We’ve not only seen underdogs cover the spread on Thursday nights, but win outright. In addition, the Bengals playing at home with a veteran quarterback who got another week of reps with his offense and having a spread of +5.5 (covering a field goal) is an advantage. My pre-game pick is Bengals +5.5 (-106, Pinnacle). Before taking this pick, I did some line shopping to get the best odds.

Steelers being favored creates a game script of the Bengals playing behind and throwing to WR Ja’Marr Chase and WR Tee Higgins, whereas the run game likely not in the Bengals playbook. They have struggled all season with the run game, RB Chase Brown has yet to get anything going, and they’re going up against the Steelers—one of the league’s best defenses. For this reason, I like Brown’s under rushing yards and Chase and Higgins over receiving yards. For anytime touchdowns, I posted a list of who I like for each team in the Week 6 Recap, but for the Bengals it’s WR Chase, and for the Steelers it’s WR Metcalf. This would be a great game to bet either/or individually as both are at plus-money odds, or take either/or as a touchdown special.

Live Bets

Once the game started and I got a glimpse of the game flow, I took RB Brown’s under rushing yards with the Steelers leading 10-0. The live game script matched the pre-game lines, and I thought the Bengals wouldn’t run the ball much anymore. To my surprise, Brown had a few break-through runs and that bet lost quickly. The Bengals got themselves back into the game and with the run game working, it elected them to run the ball more. But instead of taking Chase to run 40+ more, I decided to take backup Perine to get 10 more as he was taking some of the snaps and gaining first downs. Although this seemed like a good bet with how much time was left, it ultimately lost.

When the Steelers went up 10-0, that created a good opportunity to take the Bengals spread, because the pre-game line was +5.5. For those who were not in on the Bengals spread but wanted to, you could have taken them live at +12.5 or +13, which obviously doesn’t seem like a smart bet, but it’s an advantage because you’re beating the closing line. Most games will go in one direction, but quickly turn back.

With Chase and Metcalf not scoring yet, their lines were too good to ignore. Chase was +160 for anytime touchdown and Metcalf was +220. This was an advantage compared to the pre-game lines and—without being able to take a live bet on the either-to-score market—taking both at plus odds was a profitable bet as long as one of them scored. It was Chase who scored at +160, so betting $100 on each I came out with a net profit of $60.

Although the game opened up with the Steelers up 10-0, the Bengals stayed in it. Using the SHS Scoreboard, I was able to identify that over 60.5 was a key number and it would cover with just 10 more points. The score was 27-24 for the Bengals, and the sportsbooks were having a tough time setting live totals. The first bet I took was over 60.5, seeing the momentum of both offenses and playing the likely scenarios—I expected another 10 points minimum.

As the Bengals drove down the field on their second-last drive and were not able to move the ball, the sportsbooks were having trouble setting the live lines around 4:30 to go in the 4th. Using Pinnacle as a benchmark, they had over 56.5 at -160, whereas a Kambi sportsbook had over 54.5 at +125. This made the over 54.5 a massive edge, and I took it without hesitation. The Steelers moved the ball to midfield, and I could have middled out with under 63.5 to protect my bet, but I left this one open. The Steelers scored a touchdown to cover both overs. The total being at 61. Then the Bengals kicked a field goal to win the game 33-31, the total landing on 64.

Live betting creates great opportunities. Over time, you understand the context of the game and the likely scenarios. Not every bet will work out, but as a bettor you have to get comfortable making decisions and knowing when to hedge out and when to ride a bet.

Steelers Notes

• QB Aaron Rodgers has been playing tremendous for the Steelers in what has been known to be the last season of his career. He threw 4 touchdowns and completed 23/34 passes. Despite 2 interceptions and being sacked 4 times, he did everything he could to put his team in a winning position. Unfortunately this game was out of his hands and in the Steelers defense’s, who were unable to get enough stops.

• RB Jaylen Warren has taken on a major role this season. After missing last week, he came back into the lineup and made a huge impact with 16 rushes for 127 yards and 4 receptions for 31 yards. He did not find the endzone this week, but he moved the chains and enabled the Steelers to get multiple first downs to get into scoring position.

• RB Kenneth Gainwell had no real role in this matchup, which made sense due to how Warren was playing, but it would have been nice to see him get more usage due to how much of a positive impact he made while Warren was out in recent games. If Warren is playing well, expect Gainwell to be sidelined more often, which can lead to taking his under prop lines. If Warren has an off game, you can bet on Gainwell’s over prop lines.

• WR D.K. Metcalf started off the game with a 39-yard catch, but after that play he only got 2 more passes and 11 more yards. His anytime touchdown streak comes to an end as a result of the low targets. This cost people a lot of parlays as he was the most consistent Steeler to find the endzone in recent weeks.

• TE Pat Freiermuth had a big night with 2 touchdowns and 111 yards on only 5 catches. His longest of the night was a 68-yard reception. TE Jonnu Smith also had a touchdown. This shows that there is value on the Steelers tight ends for touchdowns and receptions.

Bengals Notes

• QB Joe Flacco has found his strategy: throw the ball to WR Ja’Marr Chase. Flacco mentioned that he is impressed with Chase and WR Tee Higgins. He knew they were good, but being able to throw them the ball and to witness what they can do with the ball is entirely different. Flacco has put up impressive numbers since joining the Bengals only 2 weeks ago. He threw for 342 yards and had 3 passing touchdowns. His pre-game line for over 1.5 passing touchdowns was great value as he doesn’t typically hand the ball off to his running backs often. He is known as a passing quarterback and can sling it. As the Bengals will continue to be underdogs in most matchups, look at his over passing yards and over passing touchdowns.

• WR Ja’Marr Chase broke out with 16 receptions and 161 yards. He beat the Bengals record for most receptions in a single game. He also scored a touchdown and was the difference maker in this game. The Flacco-Chase chemistry is strong, and betting on Chase’s over props is wise.

• WR Tee Higgins tallied 96 yards on 6 receptions and had a touchdown. He also had one of the highest IQ plays of the season. On the last drive, he caught a pass in stride, which he could have fought to get into the endzone, but with 1:30 left this would give the Steelers the ball back with the ability to win the game. Instead of trying to score he slid down in bounds, which ran the clock. The Bengals then used timeouts to be able to kick with just 7 seconds left.

• RB Chase Brown has not had the best start to the season, but he found a way to make an impact in this game. On 11 rushing attempts he tallied 108 yards and had a long of 37 yards.

Looking Ahead

In Week 8, the Steelers host the Packers (-3) and the Bengals (-3.5) face the Jets. As an early take, Rodgers will be highly motivated to beat the Packers as this is his last season and this is where Rodgers played most of his career. I can see this game as a spot to take the Steelers +3.5. For the Bengals game, I would be all over the Bengals spread. They are only going to get better, and the Jets have not won a game yet.