Week 10 Recap & Week 11 Insights
Week 10 Recap & Week 11 Insights
Newsletter Picks 2-1
Bills -9.5 ❌
After coming off a big win against the Chiefs, the Bills reverted to their worst form. The Bills looked incomplete against the Dolphins, a match they’ve historically dominated. No one expected an outright loss to the Dolphins who couldn’t get a touchdown just a week ago. The inconsistencies in general throughout the NFL continue to shock everyone. To say the least, the Bills do not look like Super Bowl contenders.
Patriots +3 ✅
Drake Mays leads the Patriots to an outright win against the Buccaneers on the road.
Seahawks -6.5 ✅
The Seahawks continue to dominate. They have historically come out on top against the Cardinals, but this one was a blowout. Sam Darold continues to show the Seahawks are the real deal.
Blog Picks 1-1
Jaguars u37.5 ❌
The Jaguars and Texans blew past the total with 65 total points.
Rams vs. 49ers over 49.5 ✅
Easily covered over 49.5 scoring 68 total points.
Rec TD Parlay did not hit, but 3 of the 5 legs did. Let’s break down each bet and then dive into the math on one way to bet them.
Jonathan Taylor bounced back to score 3 touchdowns after not scoring the week before.
Derrick Henry not scoring seemed like Vegas made a call. RB Backup Justice Hill had one rush in the game for a one-yard touchdown, taking it away from Derrick Henry.
Rico Dowdle gets the Panthers only touchdown in the first quarter of the game.
McCaffrey faced a similar situation to Henry, who had his touchdown taken away from backup RB Brian Robinson Jr.
Josh Jacobs scored the Packers only touchdown.
Overall, parlays should be small due to the low likelihood of them winning. Even betting all of these individually would have been a net loss because of how low the odds were. This reinforces that it’s important to look for plus money value on the players who are not heavily bet into by the public and play them as straight bets. Over time, you can have a lower hit rate and make more money. Another way to do it is betting live on players who are heavy favourites to score pre game that become plus money when they don’t score in the first half.
Trends
8 of 14 games go under 24.5 in the first half, a similar trend to week 9.
10 of 14 teams who led the time of possession battle won the game.
Headlines
LV 7 @ DEN 10
Raiders (2-7): The Raiders came out strong to start the game and scored a touchdown in the first quarter. Unfortunately, that was the only time they got on the scoreboard. The positives were that the defense was able to prevent the Broncos from getting many points, but the offense was simply horrendous. QB Geno Smith threw for 143 yards and took 6 sacks. This was one of Smith’s worst performances of the season. We expected more after last week's 29-point game and anticipated the offense would go through TE Brock Bowers with WR Meyers traded. Bowers' production was non-existent as he only had 1 reception. Last week he had 3 touchdowns. The top performer was RB Ashton Jeanty who tallied 60 yards on 19 carries and had a touchdown. The top receiver was Tyler Lockett who had 5 receptions for 44 yards. The Raiders go up against the Cowboys in Week 11. The Cowboys have the worst defense in the league, but that won’t matter to the Raiders if the offense doesn’t show up.
Broncos (8-2): The Broncos didn’t look much better than the Raiders, but were good enough to pull off another win. QB Bo Nix struggled to get the offense into rhythm. He had a worse completion percentage than Geno Smith and threw 2 interceptions. RB J.K. Dobbins kept the chains moving and was able to run the clock out with some big runs late in the 4th quarter. No receivers stood out in this one, but Troy Franklin led the target share with 5 targets. The Broncos have been playing like this for a few weeks now, but cannot expect to beat the league's top teams with low producing offense. The Broncos go on to face the Chiefs in a divisional matchup. I think the Broncos losing streak will come to an end here.
ATL 25 @ IND 31
Falcons (3-6): The Falcons put up 25 points thanks to backup RB Tyler Allgier who punched in 2 touchdowns from the 1-yard line. QB Pennix Jr. was not accurate completing 12 of 28 passes. The clear target remains to be WR Drake London who led the team with 6 receptions, 104 yards, and a touchdown. RB Bijan Robinson led the rushing game with 17 carries over Allgeier’s 11, and had 84 yards to Allgeiers' 57. However, Allgeier getting the redzone snaps is very important to point out. The tandem is efficient. Robinson does most of the heavy lifting, but Allgeier is giving the team a boost to pick up important yards and scoring touchdowns. Consider him over Robinson for anytime touchdown bets. The Falcons rematch the Panthers in Week 11, a match they lost 30-0 in Week 3. We do not expect them to go scoreless again, but the Falcons 4-game losing streak is very concerning.
Colts (8-2): The international matchup in Germany was an overtime thriller. The Colts got off to a strong start scoring 13 points in the first quarter and got RB Johnathan Taylor involved in the run game early. This was the start to a phenomenal game by Taylor who ran 244 yards on 32 carries, scored 3 touchdowns including the overtime winner, and had 42 receiving yards on 3 receptions. This game stands out among the rest for why he deserves the MVP. The NFL typically awards this to a quarterback every season, but Taylor so far deserves it. This is his 4th game with 3 touchdowns this season. QB Daniel Jones was accurate, completing 19 of 26 passes. His main target in the air was TE Tyler Warren who had 8 receptions and 99 yards. Warren and Taylor have been the key players for this offense all season. Despite having some off weeks, when these players are involved at full capacity, the Colts win games. The Colts look to recharge with a bye in Week 11. They face the Chiefs in Week 12, which will test if they are a true Superbowl contender or not.
BAL 27 @ MIN 19
Ravens (4-5): The Ravens ran their way to another win. QB Lamar Jackson only threw for 176 yards, which indicates a successful run game. RB Derrick Henry led the backfield with 20 carries, but only averaged 3.8 yards pre carry. Jackson ran 9 times for 36 yards, which tells us his hamstring is not a reason for concern and that he is fully back. The Ravens utilize other players in the run game such as backup RB Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill. Mitchell had 4 carries for 31 yards and Hill had 1 rush for a 1-yard touchdown. This makes it very tough to bet on an anytime touchdown scorer with 4 players given the opportunity to run the ball in. Perhaps the better bet is to bet on the Ravens to get a rushing touchdown. In the receiving game, WR Zay Flowers led the team with 4 receptions and 75 yards. He also was involved in the run game with 1 rush for 6 yards. The Ravens are motivated to make the playoffs with a healthy lineup. Henry’s efficiency is concerning, but with more reps we assume he will find his game. The Ravens rematch the Browns in Week 11, a game they dominated 41-17 in Week 2. Expect a similar game as the Browns are really struggling offensively with Dillion Gabriel leading.
Vikings (4-5): The Vikings are good, but they are not great with Rookie QB J.J McCarthy. Consistency remains the issue and not utilizing key players makes the team less efficient. McCarthy only completed 20 of 42 passes, which is below 50%. WR Justin Jefferson only had 4 receptions in this game. He should be getting 7 or 8 without question as he is one of the league's best receivers. The relationship between McCarthy and Jefferson will continue to evolve, but we need to see an increase in targets to start having more faith in this team. Other players like Jalen Nailor have been forced to step up. Nailor led with 5 receptions, 124 yards, and a touchdown. He can be a player to watch for the longest reception or anytime touchdown as the value will always be there. McCarthy has proven to scramble and pick up yards, that is something he excels at. He carried the ball 5 times for 48 yards, averaging 9.6 yards per carry. This can present a great live betting opportunity when the team is trailing. RB Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason split the backfield, but with Jones Sr. back and healthy he is the RB1. The Vikings host the Bears which is a rematch from Week 1, where the Vikings beat them 27-24. As we have discussed a common trend of teams splitting series, this is one I think the Bears will come out on top.
NE 28 @ TB 23
Patriots (8-2): The Patriots win on the road against a reputable Buccaneers squad who, despite having had key players out, still find a way to make games competitive. RB TreyVon Henderson had a standout performance with 14 carries for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns. He broke out for a 69 yard rushing touchdown, which shows his explosiveness. He is a top consideration for any time touchdown scorer. QB Drake Maye showed his arm strength and ability to accurately throw the deep ball, with a 72 yards touchdown pass. The Patriots are not a team to sleep on and expect them to roll over the New York Jets in Week 11.
Buccaneers (6-3): The Buccaneers did a lot of great things in this game, but did not come out on top. Backup RB Sean Tucker was more efficient than Rachaad White on the ground, but the team is missing Bucky Irving. WR Emeka Ebbuka led the team with 115 yards, TE Otton led the team with receptions, and WR Johnson led the team with 2 touchdowns. There isn’t anything bad to say about the Buccaneers, but without Irving, Godwin, and Evans, they are going to lose playoff caliber games. The Buccaneers go up against the Bills in Week 11, another playoff caliber game. Both teams will be playing off a loss and have the ability to bounce back, presenting a strong lean on the over 46.5 points.
JAX 29 @ HOU 36
Jaguars (5-4): The Jaguars were in a good spot being up 20-10 at half, but completely blew the game in the 4th quarter. WR Parker Washington led the team with 2 touchdowns on 3 receptions, making him a top redzone target. The value is there for his anytime touchdown being priced around +240. The Jaguars are not playing great football, it seems that every game is kind of a free for all. They are not exactly an easy team to read when it comes to player props, but QB Trevor Lawrence over rushing yards seems to be one of the more consistent lines to look at. He had 5 carries for 35 yards in this one. WR Jakobi Meyers made his debut as a Jaguar and led the team with 41 yards. This connection will improve. The Jaguars host the Chargers in Week 11, in which the Chargers should win.
Texans (4-5): The Texans saved their season with a massive 4th quarter comeback. The Texans scored 26 points in the 4th quarter to cover the pregame -1.5 spread and won by 7. We expected the under 37.5 to cover with how strong the Texans defense is,, but this one turned into a shootout. RB Woody Marks was solid for them in the run game with 14 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown. QB Davis Mills was able to target WR Nico Collins 7 times for 136 yards. This performance by Collins is something we have been waiting on. He is one of the league's top rated receivers, but this season has not been a great one for the Texans. The Texans face the Titans in a game they should cover the spread because the Titans struggle to get points on the board and the Texans have one of the league’s top defenses. If the offense connects like they did in the 4th quarter then you can expect them to cover.
CLE 20 @ NYJ 27
Browns (2-7): The Browns were the better team on both sides of the ball and still lost. This is demoralizing for this team and offensively nothing will change because the team won’t even give Sanders a chance to play. The Browns had 23 first downs to the Jets 12, 70 total plays to the Jets 47, and 278 yards to the Jets 169. The Jets even threw an interception and lost the possession battle and the Browns still could not get a win. RB Judkins ran the ball 22 times for 75 yards, and WR Jerry Jeudy caught 6 passes for 78 yards and scored a touchdown. I do not see the Browns splitting the season series with the Ravens in Week 11.
Jets (2-7): The Jets won a game where QB Justin Fields had 54 passing yards. That stat alone describes how the Jets season is going, but for them to win a game with these stats is truly insane. The best player for the Jets was Breece Hall who had 21 carries for 83 yards and 1 reception for 42 yards. You read that right, the running back had 42 of the 54 yards on one reception. The Jets have no chance at beating the Patriots in Week 11.
NO 17 @ CAR 7
Saints (2-8): Rookie QB Tyler Shough gets his first career win. We anticipated a low scoring game, but also expected the Panthers to come out on top. So this a big win for the Saints who have not had many positives this season. Shough was accurate, completing 19 of 27 passes and throwing 282 yards. He caught key players for touchdowns including WR Chris Olave for 62 yards and TE Juwan Johnson for 30 yards. This tells us that Shough has an arm and likes to make deep passes. This can present a great betting opportunity on his passing yards as it can be covered with a few passes. Another positive was RB Alvin Kamara's utilization, getting 22 carries for 83 yards. This brings light into what the Saints could be when they utilize their key players. Saints have a bye for Week 11.
Panthers (5-5): The Panthers have been having a decent season, but a loss like this shows why they aren’t ready for the next level. QB Bryce Young throwing only 125 is underwhelming.The key player on this roster continues to be RB Rico Dowdle who led the team with 18 carries and 53 yards even with Chuba Hubbard back. The Panthers faced the Falcons in Week 11, who we mentioned dominated them 30-0. With the inconsistency of the Panthers, it’s tough to know what version of them we are going to get. To be on trend with the team's splitting series, we’ll take the Falcons in this one.
NYG 20 @ CHI 24
Giants (2-8): The running game was good with Tracy Jr. carrying the ball 14 times for 71 yards. The receiving game was also well spread out with TE Theo Johnson going 7 for 75 yards and WR Robinson 6 for 62 yards. QB Dart found his way in the endzone twice, which makes him a high value pick any time a touchdown. He will be sidelined due to injury in Week 11. The Giants couldn’t hold off the Bears in the 4th quarter, which resulted in another loss. The Giants fired HC Brian Daboll after a 2-8 start. Rookie QB Jaxon Dart was injured under his watch and the Giants blew their 4th double digit lead of the season. There has been a lot of change for the Giants this season. They started the year off with QB Russell Wilson, who failed. Then WR1 Malik Nabers got a season ending injury. The Giants had a new life with Rookie QB Jaxon Dart and Rookie RB Cam Skattebo, but now both of them are out. Dart is out with concussion protocol and could be back this season, but Skattebo is out for the season. The Giants now lean on QB Jameis Winston to lead them. Winston’s first assignment is to face the Packers who are on a 2-game losing streak. We expect the Packers to bounce back and for the Giants to struggle as new connections get made.
Bears (6-3): The Bears improve to 6-3 with another late comeback win. The Bears are getting better every week and finding new ways to score. The trick plays that HC Ben Johnson has implemented have given the Bears an edge. The Bears run game with QB Williams, RB Monangai, and RB Swift has been effective. Monangai presents value for any time touchdown, Swift presents value for over receptions, and Williams presents value on over rushing yards. The Bears look to split the series with the Vikings in Week 11. There is a great opportunity to take the +3 spread as it will push if they lose by a field goal. The last time they played each other was in Week 1, where the Bears lost by 3.
BUF 13 @ MIA 30
Bills (6-3): The Bills wanted to pick up Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle at the deadline, but were not willing to give up a first round pick. This was a mistake by the Bills who could have used him on their side of the field. Instead, Waddle tallied 84 yards and had a touchdown against them. The Bills are struggling with their receivers and this is putting a lot of pressure on QB Allen. Simply put, they do not deserve to be in the Superbowl conversations when they cannot be consistent. Nobody knows what kind of game we are going to get from them on a week to week basis. They were favored to win all 17 games before the season started and have already lost 3. WR Shakir led with 7 receptions and 58 yards, he is the most trusted player Allen can throw the ball to. RB Cook is on and off week to week. He will put up 100+ yards then only get 50 the next. Consistency issues are the biggest problem. From a live betting perspective, you can benefit when the Bills are trailing. Josh Allen will throw the ball when trailing and if that isn’t working then he will run it himself. The Bills have adopted the Eagles' tush push for short and goal scenarios, which present value on Allen’s anytime touchdown. The Bills host the Buccaneers in Week 11 and this will not be an easy game for them. I can see the Bucs covering +6, but also like the over 46.5.
Dolphins (3-7): The Dolphins surprised everyone by not only covering the +9.5 but winning outright. It isn’t that shocking when we take an outer look at divisional games creating big upsets and splitting season series. However, the Bills coming off a big win against the Chiefs and the Dolphins not scoring a touchdown the week prior made it an easy choice to pick the Bills. The star in this game was RB De’Von Achane. He had 22 carries for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also led the team in receptions with 6 and had 51 receiving yards. He is the player I would be looking at for rushing yards, receiving yards, and anytime touchdowns. His numbers are high in Week 11, so it might be better to bet on him live if the numbers drop a bit. The Dolphins are -2.5 favourites against the Commanders as they should be after beating the Bills. Be mindful, the NFL wants everyone to use a team's last performance as their main research point to predict the next game’s result. This season has been very unpredictable and analyzing teams this way has failed. I still do not trust Tua, who threw 2 interceptions in this game and could regress.
ARI 22 @ SEA 44
Cardinals (3-6): The Cardinals got dominated early, but had a better effort in the 2nd half. The top player was TE Trey McBride who had 9 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. WR Harrison Jr. also found the endzone late in the game, but got injured and is ruled out for Week 11. This will make the focus be McBride as they face the 49ers in another divisional matchup. McBride over receptions is a good bet for this matchup as the 49ers are favored to win, which will force the Cardinals to throw the ball.
Seahawks (7-2): Seahawks dominated early with a 38-7 lead after the 1st half. WR Smith-Njigba scored the first touchdown and then the Seahawks defense came up clutch. DeMarcus Lawrence scored 2 touchdowns in the first half. The Seahawks are one of the most complete teams playing well on both sides of the ball this season. The run game was effective with both running backs Charbonnet and Walker getting 14 carries each. Smith-Njigba led with 5 receptions as expected. The Seahawks get a big test in Week 11 as they face the Rams in a divisional matchup. This game will likely determine the division winner. Getting the Seahawks +3.5 is a steal considering that they are 4-0 on the road straight up and against the spread.
LAR 42 @ SF 26
Rams (7-2): As expected the Rams came out on top to split the season series and cashed the over. The Rams put up 42 points which proves how well Stafford is connecting with his key players. In games where RB Williams, WR Nacua, and WR Adams are scoring touchdowns, this team is unstoppable. The Rams face the Seahawks in a huge divisional game in Week 11. Expect everyone to be involved, but Stafford over passing yards is a great spot. Although they are favored to win, he loves to throw the ball and this is a game where the Rams can be trailing at some point. If they are, a live bet on Stafford's passing yards is a must take.
49ers (6-4): QB Mac Jones was accurate completing 33 of 39 passes. He also threw for an impressive 319 yards. The pass game was forced after trailing 21-7 at half. TE George Kittle and RB Christian McCaffrey were the top targets with 9 and 8 receptions. McCaffrey made more of an impact in the receiving game, while backup RB Brian Robison Jr. averaged more yards on the ground. Robinson Jr. stole a goal line snap from McCaffrey which led to a touchdown. We can go all the way back to last season with the 49ers running back shenanigans, but this was one that hurt a lot of bettors that had McCaffrey anytime touchdown. QB Brock Purdy is healthy and will start against the Cardinals in a divisional battle in Week 11. Expecting the 49ers to cover -2.5 with the Cardinals having top receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. out.
DET 44 @ WSH 22
Lions (6-3): Coming off a loss, we expected a big bounce back from the Lions and they delivered a dominant performance beating the Commanders 44-22. RB Jahmyr Gibbs did not hold back in this game. He tallied 142 yards on 15 carries, had 3 touchdowns and 30 receiving yards. RB David Montgomery also made a positive impact with 15 carries for 71 yards. QB Jared Goff was very accurate completing 25 of 33 passes and totaled 320 yards. WR Jameson Williams was a deep threat with 6 receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown, while WR St. Brown continues to be a short pass target. In a way, WR St. Brown gets a tight end looks as he receives most of his passes in the middle of the field and gains his yards after the catch. This will be depended on in Week 11 against the Eagles as TE Sam Laporta has been placed on the IR. Expect the Lions to continue this momentum and win this game outright against the Eagles whose offense is not clicking. Lions +3 is available on some sportsbooks, but +2.5 is on most. Waiting for a live bet covering +3.5 for them is a wise play.
Commanders (3-7): There isn’t a lot going on for the Commanders right now. The good news is that they put up 22 points on the Lions and that TE Ertz and WR Samuel were involved. It’s hard to expect much from this team with all of the injuries, but they can still compete. At 3-7, their season is likely over. They prepare to play the Dolphins in Spain to see who will improve to 4-7.
PIT 10 @ LAR 25
Steelers (5-4): The Steelers performance was underwhelming. QB Aaron Rodgers was not targeting anyone specific, but utilizing everyone. It was not effective as the WR2’s and WR3’s were counted on in key spots and were not able to make big time catches. This is why they have DK Metcalf, but if Metcalf is only getting 3 receptions a game and not scoring touchdowns then the Steelers aren’t going to compete. RB Jaylen Warren is making an impact on the ground, but not getting many redzone attempts. Tough to bet on player props for this team with no one being consistently targeted. The Steelers rematch the Bengals in Week 11 who are coming off of a bye. We watched these two play in Week 7, where the Bengals won 33-31. The spread is identically set with the Steelers as -5.5 favourites. At home this time, the Steelers have home advantage, but with the struggles on offense and the Bengals rested, I like the Bengals to cover again.
Chargers (7-3): The Chargers had a slow start, but got on the scoreboard with a safety. They picked up momentum in the 2nd quarter and led the time of possession battle by 15 minutes. The leading game script enabled RB Kimani Vidal to get lots of reps. He carried the ball 25 times for 95 yards and scored a touchdown. This impacted QB Justin Herbert's rushing prop which was set at 23.5. He ended the game with 19 yards and lost some yards while kneeling the ball. Sometimes it's better to bet on the rushing attempts for quarterbacks instead of the yards because kneeling out counts as a rush attempt, but it will take away yards. Teams that are leading will typically kneel the ball once or twice at the end of the game if they have possession. This makes the over for attempts a sneaky bet when looking for live bets on the leading team. The Chargers head to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars who put up a good amount of points against the Texans defense, but blew their lead. The Chargers should win.
PHI 10 @ GB 7
Eagles (7-2): Regardless of the win, the offense did not look good at all. QB Hurts threw for 183 yards, RB Barkley only averaged 2.7 yards per carry, and AJ Brown only had 2 receptions. The Eagles have some locker room issues and it is impacting their play. They improve to 7-2 but they do not look like the same Superbowl team that they were last year. They are relying on the tush push too much and it's only a matter of time until teams find a way to stop it. The Eagles are -2.5 favourites over the Lions in Week 11. It is tough betting against the Eagles at home, but comparing offenses, I like the Lions a lot more.
Packers (5-2-1): It might be time to hit the panic button if you are a Packers fan. Back to back losses is not something you typically see from this caliber of a team. QB Jordan Love had 2 fumbles and Jacobs also had a fumble. With TE Tucker Kraft out, the offense has felt the impact. It is tough to see them play such a strong defensive game and miserably fail on offense. RB Jacobs got into the endzone which is the top prop for this team right now. We expect them to bounce back against the Giants in Week 11 who have Winston starting at QB.
Last Week’s Headlines helped you cash:
Lions spread -7.5 (-112, theScoreBet)
Patriots moneyline (+135, theScoreBet)
Dowdle touchdown (-145, Caesars)
Saints team total under 17.5 (-157, Pinnacle)
Rams moneyline (-260, Bet99)
Week 11 Newsletter Picks
Bears +3 (-114, Tooniebet)
The Bears are 3-2 on the road this season while the Vikings are 1-3 at home. The Bears benefit from the rematch splitting trend, which they lost the first game in Week 1 and look to make the season series even. The Bears have shown more offensive consistency this season and the ability to rally back at the end of games, which makes them a team that is never out of the game.
Seahawks +3.5 (-114, Caesars)
The Seahawks are 4-0 on the road this year and 4-0 ATS. In a game where both teams have been excellent, getting a field goal to give is a great spot.
Lions +2.5 (-116, Tooniebet)
Lions are 6-3 ATS in the last 10 head to head. The Lions are coming off a high scoring game where they outscored the Commanders 44-22. The coaching changes made for play calling by HC Dan Campbell shows that this team is always striving to get better every single week and they will take this momentum into Philadelphia. The Eagles only put up 10 points last week. Despite picking up the win, the offense did not look great.
Blog Pick
3-team 7.5 point teaser (+105)
Buccaneers +13.5
Seahawks +10.5
Lions +10
