NFL Week 11 Recap & Week 12 Insights

Week 11 Newsletter Picks 2-1 ✅

Bears +3 (-114, Tooniebet) ✅

• Bears win outright in another 4th quarter comeback.

Seahawks +3.5 (-114, Caesars) ✅

• The Seahawks had the game in their hands but missed a field goal for the win. Still covered +3.5.

Lions +2.5 (-116, Tooniebet) ❌

• The Lions didn’t realize that if they kicked field goals instead of trying to convert 4th downs they would have won the game.

Blog Pick 1-0 ✅

3-team 7.5 point teaser (+105)

Buccaneers +13.5

Seahawks +10.5

Lions +10

Buccaneers lost by 12, Seahawks lost by 2, and Lions lost by 7, but this is what teasers are all about, buying points.

Overall 3-1 ✅

Trends

Out of 15 games:

• 9 of 15 (60%) finished Under 24.5 points in the first half.

• 9 of 15 (60%) winning teams led time of possession.

Those numbers reinforce two key betting angles we’ve tracked all season: slower first halves and the strong correlation between clock control and game outcomes. When early drives stall, look for live first-half unders and, conversely, favor sides that consistently sustain possession.

Injury & Discipline Update

Week 11 was shaped by unexpected lineup and discipline issues:

• BUF WR Keon Coleman was a healthy scratch for being late to team meetings. The Bills set an example

• DAL WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens began the game benched after breaking curfew.

• Key injuries hit GB RB Josh Jacobs, and ATL QB Michael Penix Jr. plus WR Drake London.

These developments emphasize why staying current on team and player news is critical. Lines often adjust to known absences, but last-minute scratches or in-game injuries can swing both team performance and live-bet opportunities.

Examples:

• When Josh Jacobs exited early, it opened a profitable live angle on Emmanuel Wilson’s over rushing yards and Anytime TD.

• With the Falcons missing both Penix Jr. and London, the Panthers’ underdog spread gained hidden value — they went on to win outright.

Week 11 Headlines

NYJ 14 @ NE 27

Jets (2-8): The Jets started the game off strong and took an early lead with QB Justin Fields running in a touchdown. The early score gave Jets fans some hope, but the Jets went on to play their normal way after that. Fields threw for only 116 yards. His best prop is his under throw yards. Fields remains unable to throw the ball to receivers week in and week out. He gets the Jets yards with his legs. Betting on his over rushing yards is usually a safe play. He led the team with 67 rushing yards in this game. RB Breece Hall also was involved in the run game with 14 carries for 58 yards. No one in the receiving game impressed, which makes the under on all player props an edge. The Jets are looking forward to the draft to start rebuilding this team. They have a pile of first round draft picks over the next few seasons that can really help them improve. The Jets travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in Week 12. The Jets have announced they are changing the starting quarterback to Tyrod Taylor. I believe this change will make them more consistent.

Patriots (9-2): The Patriots rolled over the Jets, covering the -12.5 point spread. RB TreyVon Henderson had a standout performance with 3 touchdowns. QB Maye threw for 281 yards, spreading the ball out amongst receivers. WR Stefon Diggs was the top target with 9 receptions and 105 yards. The Maye-Diggs connection is one of the most reliable in the league this season and we expect Diggs to get the ball in any games that the Patriots trail. The Patriots lead the AFC East and are tied with the Broncos with the highest winning percentage in the league.

WSH 13 @ MIA 16

Commanders (3-8): The Commanders looked unified and had a 7-point lead at the beginning of the 4th quarter thanks to WR Deebo Samuel. They had the game in their hands, but 2 missed field goals and a fumbled kick return cost them. Kicker Matt Gay was released from the team after the game due to his performance. QB Marcus Mariota was effective in the run game averaging 12.3 yards per carry and RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the team with 15 carries for 79 yards. Rodriguez looks like he has taken over the RB1 role and RB Jacoby Croskey-Meritt has moved to RB2. Mariota does not like to use his running backs as receivers, so taking their under on receptions can be a good bet in future weeks. WR Samuel remains the top target with 7 receptions. WR Terry McLaurin is still out, but could be back for Week 13 when the return from the bye to play the Broncos.

Dolphins (4-7): The Dolphins have won back to back games, but this one was pure luck and they did not earn it. The Dolphins went for it on 4th and goal when they could have kicked a field goal to take the lead. This decision was pure stupidity and shows that teams this season are taking unnecessary risks rather than putting points on the board. If they would have lost this game, I guarantee HC Mike McDaniels would have been fired. RB De’Von Achane has another explosive performance 21 carries for 120 yards and 5 receptions for 45 yards. He continues to be the only consistent Dolphin to bet on. RB Ollie Gordon takes Achane’s touchdown, making Achane’s over rush and rec yards the most valuable prop to bet on. The Dolphins have a bye for Week 12, but have an easy path to increase their win streak to 3 games playing the Saints in Week 13.

CAR 30 @ ATL 27

Panthers (6-5): The Panthers scored 30 points on the Falcons again to sweep the season series in overtime. It was an impressive comeback considering they were trailing 21-10 at the half, but this shows that halftime adjustments are real. This might be QB Bryce Young’s best game of his career, throwing for 448 yards. The Panthers run game was not existent, but in the pass game everyone contributed. The most impactful player for the Panthers was WR Tetariroa McMillan who had 2 touchdowns and 130 yards from 8 receptions. With RB Chubba Hubbard healthy, this can take away snaps from Rico Dowdle although he is still getting RB1 reps right now. The Panthers will have a tougher challenge in Week 12 against the 49ers.

Falcons (3-7): The Falcons lost more than the game, they lost QB Penix Jr. and WR Drake London to injury. This bumps up Kirk Cousins to starting quarterback and Darnell Mooney to WR1 duties. Pennix Jr. was accurate, completing 13 of 16 passes before getting injured and the Falcons got off to a strong start doing what they do best, running the ball with RB Bijan Robinson and throwing to WR Drake London. Robinson had 23 carries for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns. RB Allgeier also had a touchdown which we called out as a value pick in last week's recap. Robinson got the true RB1 role in this game, but Allgeier still got redzone snaps. London had 7 catches for 119 yards, which will make Mooney have big shoes to fill in Week 12. Kirk Cousins will lean on Bijan Robinson to make up the majority of the offense next week and likes using his backs as receivers, bringing value to both Robinson and Allgeier’s over receptions. Cousins will face the Saints in Week 12, which will be an easier game for him to get back into rhythm.

TB 32 @ BUF 44

Buccaneers (6-4): The Buccaneers made this a ping pong match, but fell short in the 2nd half. RB Sean Tucker stepped up and had a dominant RB1 performance with 19 carries, 106 yards and 3 touchdowns. RB Rachaad White had an RB2 role with 10 carries for 51 yards. QB Baker Mayfield utilized all of the receivers, WR Shepard and Egbuka combined for 94 yards. RB Irving and WR Godwin are back to practice and they can both help this team win these playoff type games. Without them, I think they will still put up points but fall short in these games. In Week 12, the Bucs will play the 8-2 Rams on Sunday Night. Both of these teams are offensively focused, love the over 49.5. This should be a similar game to the Bills vs. Bucs.

Bills (7-3): After getting embarrassed by the Dolphins in Week 11, QB Josh Allen responded. He tallied 317 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 3 rushing touchdowns, and 40 rushing yards. He proved why he won MVP last season and why he could win it again. Allen used everyone as a receiver including his running backs who were 2nd and 3rd in receiving on the team. Allen has quite the list of receivers to choose, making no one a great option to bet on props with. In addition to the Bills consistency issues, they also seem to match the opponents tempo rather than coming out and taking the game from the beginning. For example, this season they have played 3 teams that made the playoffs last season. In each of those games, they’ve won. They beat the Ravens 41-40, the Chiefs 28-21, and the Bucs 44-32. They are preparing for these playoff-type games, but are not playing with the same tempo in other games. We know they are capable of winning a Superbowl, but I’m not sold on them yet with their consistency issues.

HOU 16 @ TEN 13

Texans (5-5): The Texans pulled through with a 3-point win over the Titans. Expected a low scoring game with the Titans offense not producing and the Texans defense remaining one of the league’s best. Also with QB Davis Mills, the offense is not much better than it was when Stroud was playing, but at least he is able to target his top players. There wasn’t much of a run presence for the Texans, but in the passing game WR Nico Collins led with 9 receptions, 92 yards, and a touchdown. This is what we expect from Collins, but as we've mentioned this season he has not been getting the ball consistently. TE Dalton Schultz was 2nd in receptions with 6. When the Texans were at their best last season, Collins, Schultz and Tank Dell were their top targets. With Dell’s injury leaving him sidelined this season, Rookie Xavier Hutchinson has sneaked into that role. The Texans face the Bills in Week 12, who they beat 23-20 the last time they met. With the Texans strong defense and the Bills coming off a high scoring game, I expect them to regress and struggle to score. The pre game total set at 44.5 I would lean to the under.

Titans (1-9): The Titans continue to be terrible. They do not have a run game because they have been trailing in so many games. This forces them to be a throwing offense. QB Cam Ward did use his legs and led the team with 33 rushing yards. Ward is a mobile quarterback so you can expect him to scramble for yards. There are no go players to throw the ball, making this team tough to bet player props on. The best bet would be Ward's passing yards if the stat line is lower than 200. The Titans go on to face the 7-3 Seahawks in Week 12. Expect the Seahawks to cover the -12.5 spread. They have been dominating the bottom teams, but the Titans are the worst.

CHI 19 @ MIN 17

Bears (7-3): The Bears win their 3rd straight and split the season series against the Vikings. They had a 10-3 lead at halftime, but let the Vikings back in the game in the 4th quarter. They were trailing 17-16, but once again, a last minute successful drive led to a field goal kick for the win. It is wild how many of their games are coming down to the last drive, but even more impressive that they are consistently winning in these scenarios. The Bears have identified themselves as a strong running team. RB D’Andre Swift had 21 carries for 90 yards. He did not get any receptions which is not normal, but this could be due to the Bears being in the lead the majority of the game and leaning on the run game. We mentioned the value of RB Kyle Monangai anytime touchdown at +220 and he scored the Bears only touchdown. QB Caleb Williams also covered his over rushing yards like we suggested. His line was 23.5 and he ran for 26. Last but not least the Bears covered the +3 we gave out as a newsletter pick. This pick would have cashed even if they missed the field goal on the last drive since they were trailing by 2 but we anticipated them winning this game and they got it done. The Bears are favorites at home against the Steelers in Week 12.

Vikings (4-6): The Vikings had another off game led by J.J McCarthy. Things did not start really clicking until the 4th quarter when they scored 2 touchdowns to take a lead. McCarthy has his moments and shows a lot of potential, but we get a lot of plays from him that remind us that he is a rookie. The good news is that RB Aaron Jones Sr. was effective in the backfield putting up 70 yards on 16 carries. The Vikings have a nice RB duo with Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason. Mason picked up a touchdown in this game. Receiving wise, Justin Jefferson led with 5 receptions for 61 yards. It is good to see him leading the team in targets and that his connection with McCarthy is growing. The value continues to be on Jefferson’s under props as this has been more of a rebuilding year for the Vikings. The Vikings have a tough opponent in Week 12 when they travel to Green Bay to play the Packers. This is another divisional game. The Vikings did shock everyone by beating the Lions as +8.5 underdogs, which makes the +6.5 the value side with the Packers injuries.

GB 27 @ NYG 20

Packers (6-3-1): The Packers won the game, but it was ugly and there are concerns about multiple players getting injured. First and foremost, playing on the turf at MetLife Stadium is known to cause the most amount of injuries. QB Jordan Love left the game for a brief moment and then RB Josh Jacobs left for the rest of the game. During their absences, backup QB Malik Willis came into the game and gave the Packers a boost. Love wasn’t having a great game, taking too long to get through progressions and getting sacked. Meanwhile Willis is a mobile QB with speed. He took off for multiple runs to gain first downs and threw a touchdown in the short amount of time he was in the game. Love returned to finish the game. When Jacobs went out of the game, backup Emanuel Wilson came in and also gave the team a boost. He scored a touchdown and gained first downs. Jacobs is questionable for week 12.

Giants (2-9): In QB Jameis Winston’s first game starting with the Giants he threw 201 yards and connected well with his receivers. The Giants led the time of possession battle by 12 minutes but were not able to get enough stops in the 2nd half to prevent the Packers from winning. RB Tracey led the run game with 19 carries for 86 yards, Singletary scored 2 rushing touchdowns, while Winston scored 1. The ball was spread out to all receivers so it is too early to tell if Winston has any go-to weapons. We will find out more as the Giants take on the Lions in Week 12 and as +10.5 underdogs will be throwing the ball lots.

CIN 12 @ PIT 34

Bengals (3-7): The Bengals did not look like the same team we saw earlier this season when Flacco made his debut in a Bengals jersey against the Steelers. It was a closer first half, but the Steelers defense opened up the scoring in the 2nd half. There were two game changing turnovers that the Steelers scored touchdowns on. One was an interception and the other was a fumble. Flacco threw for 199 yards, RB Chase Brown had 18 carries for 99 yards, led the team with 6 receptions, while WR Tee Higgins led with 63 yards and scored a touchdown. Flacco is known for using his backs as receivers so the over receptions for Brown is an interesting one to explore in future weeks. QB Joe Burrow is back to practice but there is no word if he will start in Week 12. The Bengals have a tough schedule moving forward and start by playing the Patriots on Sunday.

Steelers (6-4): The Steelers won every quarter in this game and the defense was a big part of it. QB Rodgers completed 9 of 15 passes for 115 yards before suffering an injured wrist and left the game. Backup QB Mason Rudolph finished the game and he did really well completing 12 of 16 passes for 127 and throwing a touchdown pass. RB’s Warren and Gainwell split the backfield this week with 10 and 9 carries. Gainwell scored 2 touchdowns. Rodgers is expected to be back for Week 12 against the Bears, but check in closer to Sunday.

SEA 19 @ LAR 21

Seahawks (7-3): The Seahawks missed an end of game field goal from long range and lost the game. The Seahawks led the time of possession by 15 minutes and had 14 more first downs, but went 1 for 4 on redzone attempts while the Rams went 3 for 4. All of the stats show that the Seahawks were in control of this game, but the inability to convert in the redzone was why they lost this game. It was a heavy pass game for QB Sam Darnold who threw for 279 yards. His top targets were WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (9 rec, 105 yards) and TE AJ Barner (10 rec, 70 yards). RB Walker and Charbonnet had a split role. Walker had 16 carries for 67 yards, 1 TD, 3 rec, 44 rec yards. Charbonnet had 11 carries for 37 yards and 2 receptions for 10 yards. Darnold likes to use his backs as receivers, but when they split reps in a game it can be bad for player props. The best player to bet on is still WR Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks kept their perfect record on the road ATS and cashed our second newsletter pick of the week. Seahawks have an easy game against the Titans in Week 12, expecting them to dominate and cover -12.5. Double digit spreads is not my thing in the NFL, in games like this I would look at the first half -6.5 especially since the Seahawks do more of the scoring early and coast in the 2nd half.

Rams (8-2): The Rams are one of my top ranked teams to win the Superbowl. They truly have the complete package and Stafford can win close games. This game showed that even without having the ball often, they are efficient enough to win games. Sure, they were on the right side of a missed field goal, but to get statistically dominated and still win this game is truly impressive. This is what playoff games look like and Stafford added another win to the close-game column. The Rams scored 2 touchdowns in the 1st quarter, one by RB Kyren Williams and the other by WR Davante Adams. This early success is what kept them above water the entire game as if they didn’t have the ball the much. Stafford only threw for 130 yards and 75 of them were caught by WR Puka Nacua. Nacua had 7 receptions while the next closest was TE Colby Parkinson with 2 receptions, 1 of those being a touchdown. The run game was split between Williams and Corum, but Williams went 91 yards on 12 carries, while Corum ran 10 yards on 8 carries. Clearly, Williams was very efficient and Corum struggled. The Rams will look to get the team into rhythm against the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football.

SF 41 @ ARI 22

49ers (7-4): In Brock Purdy’s first game back, he wasted no time against a divisional rival. The spread was -2.5 for the 49ers, but Purdy led them to a 19-pt victory. Purdy fed his two top targets, RB McCaffrey who scored 3 touchdowns and TE Kittle who scored 2 touchdowns. It is very hard for this team to lose when both of these players are involved. Backup QB Mac Jones has done a good job keeping the 49ers season alive in Purdy’s absence, but with Purdy back and healthy, Jones won’t see the field much. Expect the 49ers to continue to dominate games. In Week 12, McCaffrey faces his former team. This will be a game focused around him. His anytime touchdown prop is -380, not something you can bet straight. Consider to parlay it with a milestone prop. For example, McCaffrey's any time touchdown, 50+ rushing yards, and 25+ receiving yards is -111. For a game that will be focused on him, this is a way to get better odds.

Cardinals (3-7): QB Jacoby Brissett threw for an impressive 452 yards. His main target was WR Michael Wilson who he targeted 15 times for 185 yards. This stems from WR Harrison Jr. being out with an injury and clearly gave Wilson that WR1 role. TE Trey McBride was the next leading target with 10 receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown. Expect Brissett to continue to lean on McBride as this is not sustainable for Wilson. WR Harrison Jr. is expected to still be out and RB Zonovan Knight is anticipated to get RB1 reps. The Cardinals are home underdogs to the Jaguars in Week 12.

BAL 23 @ CLE 16

Ravens (5-5): The Ravens really struggled in this game against the Browns, which is known to happen in divisional games. RB Derrick Henry scored a late touchdown in the 2nd quarter, but the Ravens still trailed 16-10 after the 1st half. TE Mark Andrews broke out for a 35 yard touchdown in the 4th quarter to give the Ravens the lead. The Ravens are now 5-5 and go on to face the Jets. This should be a game that the Ravens dominate, but they are still not playing their best football.

Browns (2-8): The Browns are not a good football team. Their only touchdown came from an interception. With QB Dillion Gabriel struggling, the Browns finally made the call to pull him and put Shedeur Sanders in the game. Not much was expected from Sanders, who mentally wasn’t ready to enter the game based on how the season has gone so far. However, he has been announced the starter for Week 12 where they face the Raiders. He will be under pressure facing Max Crosby, but at least he has a full week to prepare with the team for his first regular season start. The game total is 36.5 and I think this is the lean for this game as both teams have been relatively bad offensively.

KC 19 @ DEN 22

Chiefs (5-5): The Chiefs look like the team we’ve seen over the past few seasons, but other teams are catching up and beating them. From a betting standpoint it is tough seeing them struggle because they typically offer security to bettors who bet them live, but that is no longer the case this season. When Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce are scoring touchdowns, the Chiefs are who you’d expect to win, but in this one, the Broncos were able to kick field goals and make stops. The Chiefs are in the hunt to make the playoffs but do not have an easy path. They go up against the 8-2 Colts in Week 12 who are coming off of a bye. Despite being 5-5, the Chiefs are -3.5 favorites at home. Taking the Colts +3.5 seems like a public trap. The Chiefs have the rare ability to flip on a switch and enter playoff mode. We’ve seen them have slow starts and turn it around. I think they cover -3.5.

Broncos (9-2): The Broncos continue to find a way to win and increase their win streak to 8 straight. The Broncos defense has been top tier, while Bo Nix is getting the team into range to put points on the board. They are not consistently scoring touchdowns, but field goals are all they need when the defense is playing well. There have been a lot of 4th quarter comebacks which is a good tool to add to the playoff. The Broncos are on bye for Week 12.

DET 9 @ PHI 16

Lions (6-4): The Lions are being too aggressive and it’s costing them. Going for it on 4th down every single time is not strategic football. The more you do it and the more you fail, the worse it looks. The Lions went 0-5 on 4th down conversion and pretended like it wasn’t an issue. IF they kicked the field goals they would have piled up enough points to win the game and stopped the Eagles from getting good field position which led to scores. The play calling is also a clear issue within the coaching team. In week 9 they lost and changed things up by getting Dan Campbell to call the plays in Week 10. It worked so they thought that fixed everything, but then it clearly was not working in Week 11 and he just forced it on 4th downs. Based on the trend of the Lions coming out strong after a loss, we expect them to win and cover -12.5. That is not a bet we are taking due to the inconsistency of this offense and that it's a double digit spread.

Eagles (8-2): Although the Eagles came out on top, that game was given to them on a silver platter. Not only did the Lions hand the ball over to them by failing to convert on 4th downs, but the refs gave the Lions a flag for pass interference that clearly should have gone against the Eagles. With the game being a 7-pt difference, the Lions would have got the ball back with the ability to tie it up. Overall, the Eagles were good enough to win the game. QB Jalen Hurts threw for 135 yards, RB Saquon Barkley ran for 83, and AJ Brown led with 7 receptions for 49 yards. Brown got the targets he has been waiting for all season and hope to continue getting them in Week 12 against the Cowboys. The Eagles beat the Cowboys in Week 1 and look to sweep the series, but we expect another close battle.

DAL 33 @ LV 16

Cowboys (4-5-1): The Cowboys were -3.5 favorites against the Raiders, which seemed too low. The easy play was Cowboys -3.5 but we grabbed the moneyline live at -130 when it was a closer 1st quarter. The Cowboys tightened up the defense and only allowed 16 points, which is an improvement. Despite Lamb and Pickens starting the game on the bench, they performed when they entered the game and both of them scored touchdowns. Jake Ferguson continues to hold value for anytime touchdown scorer at plus odds. He leads the team in receiving touchdowns. Another player prop that is valuable is Javonte Williams over rushing yards. In leading and trailing scripts the Cowboys keep him involved. We knew he would get lots of yards in this game as they were favored to win and we agreed with the line. The Cowboys go up against the Eagles in Week 12. There is value on Cowboys +3.5 as they will be motivated to try and split the season series. However, the better play might be a teaser with the Cowboys +10.5 and the over 42.5.

Raiders (2-8): Not the gameplan we expected from the Raiders. We thought Jeanty would be more involved going up against one of the worst defenses against the run, but Jeanty only had 7 yards on 6 carries. With the run game not existent, the Raiders forced throws. TE Brock Bowers led with 7 receptions for 72 yards and WR Trey Tucker scored a touchdown. If the Raiders want to win, they need to have both Bowers and Jeanty involved. It almost seems that with Geno Smith still leading this team they only have their eyes set on the draft. The Raiders face the Browns as -4 favorites at home. If they can’t beat a rookie quarterback in his debut then the Raiders are definitely focused on the draft.

Week 10’s headlines helped you cash:

• Tyler Allegier touchdown

• Bucs/Bills over 46.5

• Packers moneyline

• Kyle Monongai touchdown

• Josh Allen touchdown

• McBride over receptions

• 49ers -2.5

• Caleb Williams over rushing yards

Week 12 Insights

Seattle Seahawks 1st Half -6.5 (-129, Bookmaker)

• The Seahawks are -12.5 favorites, but double digit spreads are not something we bet. The Seahawks start fast and get most of their scoring done in the first half. They have covered this line in the last 4 of 5 games and we expect them to come out early and dominate the Titans who are 1-9.

Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) over 38.5 rushing yards (-114, Fanduel)

• RB Kenneth Walker is questionable for Sunday but likely to play. Last week these two split snaps, but Charbonnet got a touchdown because he gets more redzone touches. We expect the Seahawks to get several redzone opportunities and that the Seahawks will dominate this game. This means Charbonnet could see an increase in snaps because they will want to rest Walker when there is a blowout.

Jake Ferguson over 4.5 receptions (+100, theScore)

• Ferguson has covered this line in 7 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5. The Cowboys are underdogs so they are expected to be trailing at some point. Ferguson faces competition with Lamb and Pickens for targets, but is still one of Prescott’s favorites. In Week 1 these teams played and Ferguson covered this line with 5 receptions. For any 2 minute drill, we expect Ferguson to get the ball for quick gains.

Blog Pick

13-pt Super Teaser (-140, Pinnacle)

• Colts +16.5, Buccaneers +22.5, Vikings +19.5, Seahawks -0.5