Week 12 Recap & Week 13 Insights
Week 12 Newsletter Picks 2-1 ✅
Seattle Seahawks 1st Half -6.5 (-129, Bookmaker) ✅
The Seahawks got the offense rolling early as expected and won the first half 16-3.
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) over 38.5 rushing yards (-114, Fanduel) ❌
Charbonnet got his touchdown, but fell short of getting over his yards as he ended with 35. The Titans made the game closer in the second half which prevented starters from sitting, but either way the Seahawks did not give Charbonnet many reps.
Jake Ferguson over 4.5 receptions (+100, theScore) ✅
Prescott showed that Ferguson is who he trusts in key moments. After having 3 receptions after the 1st half, Ferguson did not see the ball much until the final drive. He caught 2 passes on the game winning drive. This is why Ferguson can be trusted for his over receiving props when playing on a team who has a lot of weapons.
Blog Pick 0-1 ❌
13-pt Super Teaser (-140, Pinnacle) ❌
Colts +16.5, Buccaneers +22.5, Vikings +19.5, Seahawks -0.5
The Colts lost by 3, the Vikings lost by 17, Seahawks won by 6, but it was the Buccaneers who cost us this bet by losing by 27.
Overall 2-2
Trends
In Week 12, there were a lot of big leads early that created some of the season’s best comebacks. The New England Patriots trailed 10-0 early in the 2nd quarter, but rallied back to win 26-20. The New York Giants led 27-17, but the Lions came back to win 34-27 in overtime. The Indianapolis Colts led 20-9 entering the 4th quarter, but lost 23-20 in overtime. The biggest comeback of the day was with the Eagles leading 21-0 and the Dallas Cowboys coming back to win 24-21.
These examples all mean there were opportunities to live bet these teams with lines that beat the CLV. For example, you could have got any of the trailing teams to win at plus odds or taken the spread live and they would have covered.
8/14 (57%) games 1st half total go under 24.5
Only 4 teams (29%) that led time of possession came out as winners. This is a huge decrease from last week.
Headlines
BUF 19 @ HOU 23
Bills (7-4): Our read on the Bills was correct. They struggle to be a consistent football team. In the last weekly recap we discussed how the Bills prepare for the playoff teams and wing it against non playoff teams. Well, the Texans were a playoff team last season but with their starting quarterback out, the Bills did not take them seriously. An early 45 yard breakout run by RB James Cook got the Bills an early lead but a failed extra point haunted them all night. The Bills did not score another offensive touchdown all game and instead of playing for a field goal to tie the game and force overtime, they had to score a touchdown for the win which they failed. The Bills were 0-2 in the red zone and Allen struggled all night. RB Cook did finish with 116 yards and WR Shakir had 8 receptions for 110 yards. The positive is that these two players were efficient, but the negative is that even with them producing, they did not win. The Bills face the Steelers in Week 13 and are -4 favourites on the road.
Texans (6-5): Last time the Texans played the Bills they won 23-20. We would have got the exact same result if Buffalo did not miss the extra point on their opening touchdown. This confirms that the Texans defense is a legit number one unit in the NFL. Stopping Josh Allen is not an easy task, but they have now done it in back-to-back matches against them. QB Davis Mills only threw for 153 yards and the Texans had less time of possession by 5 minutes. This tells us that they were more efficient when they had the ball, but they didn’t always have to travel too far to score points as the Bills were 3 for 5 on 4th down conversions. This set up the Texans in good field range and allowed them to get points. The Texans are now back in the playoff hunt at 6-5 sitting 9th on the AFC. They are +4.5 underdogs on the road against the Colts who just came off a bad loss to the Chiefs. The Texans will need another standout performance from the defense to have a chance, but we expect the Colts to win this one.
NYJ 10 @ BAL 23
Jets (2-9): We suggested that the Jets would be more consistent with QB Tyrod Taylor taking the quarterback reigns and we were right. The Jets had 15 first downs, 10 of those were passing. Taylor had 222 passing yards, something we never saw from Justin Fields. As +13.5 underdogs it was a good spot to take the Jets for many reasons. First is, we do not bet on double digit favourites to cover. Secondly, the Ravens have not been dominating games, but doing enough to get by. Thirdly, Jets haven’t been covering spreads or winning games this season due to Fields and with Taylor playing the QB role properly this leads to the team being able to put points on the board. Despite being a good spot, it wasn’t a game we decided to put our capital on but glad to see it covered. RB Breece Hall benefited from Taylor by getting more usage. He tallied 16 carries for 44 yards and 4 receptions for 75 yards. It’s clear that Taylor uses him as a catching back so the over receptions is a great spot since they are underdogs in the majority of games. The Jets are +2.5 underdogs against the Falcons in Week 13. I think there is value in Breece Hall over rushing yards due to how bad the Falcons run defense is. I also think the Jets can pull off the upset here, but would prefer a +3 if you can get it.
Ravens (6-5): The Ravens did not dominate this game like expected. They started the game off slow and only had 3 points after the 1st half. They made adjustments for the 2nd half and showed a glimpse of their true game. Derrick Henry scored 2 touchdowns in the 3rd quarter alone. Henry got his reps in carrying the ball 21 times for 64 yards. His average carry has been lower this season, but his rushing attempts is a spot that presents betting value. WR Zay Flowers continues to be the top target. Flowers led with 5 receptions for 58 yards. The offense has been good enough to win games, but still hasn’t reached their full potential. We expect a better showing against the Bengals in Week 13 as the rivalry should ignite a flame.
IND 20 @ KC 23
Colts (8-3): The Colts had a 20-9 lead entering the 4th quarter. They had the game in the bag, but QB Daniel Jones’ inability to convert late in the game allowed the Chiefs to crawl their way back into the game. RB Johnathan Taylor did not make his typical contributions with only 16 carries for 58 yards, no touchdowns, and only 2 receptions for 8 yards. The Chiefs did a good job shutting him down and this is a big reason the Colts weren’t able to convert. The Colts will need to get Taylor going against the Texans in Week 13 as he is the center piece of the offense. This is no easy task against a top defensive line. If the Texans contain Taylor they should cover the +4.5.
Chiefs (6-5): The Chiefs had a slow start but were able to make a 4th quarter comeback to force overtime. They won the game on a field goal from Butker who was clutch for them kicking 5 field goals. RB Kareem Hunt was a workhorse carrying the ball 30 times for 104 yards and a touchdown. QB Patrick Mahomes also had a big game throwing 352 yards and helping the team get 33 1st downs. WR Rashee Rice led the team with 8 receptions for 141 yards. It is clear that Rice is the go-to target in trailing scenarios. The Chiefs go up against a hot Cowboys offense who just also pulled off a comeback against the Eagles. Expect RB Hunt to have another big game.
SEA 30 @ TEN 24
Seahawks (8-3): The Seahawks came out strong as expected and covered our 1st half -6.5 spread newsletter pick. The Seahawks took their foot off the pedal and let the Titans get back into the game. We’ve talked about this trend over and over again, but the Seahawks are a first half team. While QB Darnold has been playing well, the ascension of 3rd year WR Smith-Njigba has been meteoric. He is on pace to eclipse the all-time receiving yard record, and the team will do everything they can to make that happen. The Seahawks go up against the Vikings next week, which will be a revenge game for QB Sam Darnold. The Vikings let him go to start rookie J.J McCarthy. This has not worked out for the Vikings and Darnold will make a point. Monitor McCarthy’s status heading into the weekend as he is dealing with a concussion and may not start, which would thrust undrafted rookie QB Max Brosmer into the starting lineup, further darkening the outlook of the struggling Vikings.
Titans (1-10): Despite the loss, the one-win Titans performed admirably against a tough defense. QB Ward was mistake free and, while inefficient, was able to contribute nearly 300 yards of total offense and 2 TDs. With top WR Ridley out, rookie WR and special teamer Chimere Dike shined with both a receiving TD and a punt return TD. The Titans take on the Jaguars next week, who are firmly in the playoff race and will seek to exploit the porous Titans defense. While the Titans are 6.5 point underdogs, they could make it close against an inconsistent Jaguars defense. The X-factor will be Dike, who is leading the league in total return yards and will face a Jaguars team allowing the second-most yards per punt return. This will improve scoring chances for the Titans to make it a close game. The Titans play the Jaguars in Week 13.
MIN 6 @ GB 23
Vikings (4-7): The Vikings looked terrible with J.J McCarthy. One stat showed he would have had a better passer rating if he spiked the ball every time he got the ball rather than what he did. McCarthy only completed 12 passes and threw for 87 yards. These are Justin Fields numbers, except McCarthy doesn't make up for the yards gained on the ground. In the backfield, RB Jordan Mason and RB Aaron Jones shared the reps and had similar performances. Difficult to bet on any props for either of them, but one way to look at it could be the under for Jones rushing yards and the over for Mason’s rushing yards if they are getting the same amount of snaps. Mason is the backup which means the sportsbooks have his numbers a lot lower than Jones. WR Justin Jefferson and TE TJ Hockenson led with 4 receptions, but again the value is betting the unders on props with receivers right now. The Vikings go on to play the Seahawks in Week 13. Backup QB Matt Brosmer will get the start with J.J McCarthy in concussion protocol. This could present better opportunities for the Vikings player props but my lean would be the running backs over rushing yards rather than picking any receiver.
Packers (7-3-1): The Packers did well without Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs. RB Emanuel Wilson took the lead role in the backfield with 28 carries for 107 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. The Packers are run heavy in the redzone so whoever is the lead back will have the best chance to score a touchdown. WR Christian Watson had 5 receptions for 49 yards. In Week 13, the Packers face the Lions and are +2.5 underdogs. RB Josh Jacobs is back so his anytime touchdown has value at -135. Another bet to consider is Christian Watson over 3.5 receptions. Due to the season series strategy, the Packers are expected to lose this one.
NYG 27 @ DET 34
Giants (2-10): The Giants couldn't have got a better start getting a 10-0 lead in the 1st quarter. They maintained a 3-point lead going into the half, but the Lions clawed their way back and forced overtime. The Giants were not able to contain RB Gibbs who had a 49 yard rushing touchdown in regulation and a 69 yard touchdown in overtime. Other than these two plays, the Giants outplayed the Lions in every category. If the Giants defense can stop the run they have a strong enough offense to win games. QB Winston has been a good quarterback replacement and was effective throwing for 366 yards. The Giants showed the Lions they aren't the only team who can score touchdowns with trick plays as Winston caught a 33 yard pass to score a touchdown. Expect RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. And RB Devon Singletary to split the backfield as Tracy had 20 carries and Singletary had 14. WR Wandale Robinson led the receiving room with 9 receptions for 156 and a touchdown. The next closest was 3 receptions. This makes it clear Winstin found his go to target. In Week 13, the Giants face Patriots who are coming off a close win to the Bengals. If we applied zig zag theory, the Patriots would cover this week.
Lions (7-4): The Lions had an extremely slow start but made a comeback. The key players for them were RB Gibbs who scored 2 touchdowns and had 15 carries for 219 yards on the ground. He also had 11 receptions for 45. Gibbs 2 touchdowns came from a 49 and 69 yard breakout runs. He is so critical to this offense that David Montgomery is barely seeing the field. Although they used to be a great duo, Montgomery is not seeing the field. This isn't sustainable for Gibbs, so we do expect to see Montgomery get more snaps, but in trailing game scripts its unlikely for him to get his fair share. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown scored a touchdown and had 9 receptions for 149 yards. He is clearly the top target for Goff. We anticipated this increase in workload with TE Sam Laporta on IR. The Lions go up against the Packers in Week 12. We have Lions -2.5 with a full explanation why. Another bet with value to consider is Gibbs over 3.5 receptions.
NE 26 @ CIN 20
Patriots (10-2): The Patriots got off to a slow start, something that they are not used to this season. A pick-six in the 2nd quarter caused the Patriots to trail 10-0. QB Drake Maye shook it off and found his rhythm. He threw a 28 yard touchdown to TE Hunter Henry, then the Pats defense got a pick-six. The Pats went into the half leading 17-13. They held on in the 2nd half to win this one 26-20. TE Hunter Henry had a standout performance with the touchdown he scored and leading receivers with 115 yards. Maye threw for an impressive 294 yards. The Patriots are -7.5 favorites against the Giants in Week 13.
Bengals (3-8): The Bengals had early momentum but it was short lived. The defense struggled and the absence of WR Chase hurt. The player of the game for them was RB Chase Brown who totalled 107 yards on the ground. Brown had a slow start to the season so it's good to see him finding his game. The Bengals have not announced it yet, but we anticipate QB Joe Burrow to play against the Ravens in Week 13. The Bengals will also benefit from having WR Chase back in the lineup. As +7 underdogs, Joe Burrow's passing yards. Chase’s over receptions, recent yards and anytime touchdown are all value bets.
PIT 28 @ CHI 31
Steelers (6-5): The Steelers started Mason Rudolph with Aaron Rodgers out. Rudolph had a good game completing 24 of 31 passes. The Steelers defense made this game closer than it seemed, scoring a touchdown by recovering a fumble. Both WR DK Metcalf and RB Jaylen Warren scored rushing touchdowns. The only passing touchdown Rudolph threw was to TE Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers picked up most of their yards on the ground. RB Warren led the backfield with 18 carries, but only averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Gainwell was more efficient, averaging 9.2 yards per carry. This is a talented RB duo and hopefully the Steelers continue to keep them both involved. The Steelers are +3.5 home underdogs as they host the Bills in Week 13. The value is getting the +3.5 on the Steelers as their strong defense will cause problems for the Bills. The Bills struggled against the Texans last week.
Bears (8-3): The Bears were -3 favourites at home. They trailed by 4 going into the half, but we're consistent, scoring a touchdown in each quarter to get another win. The trend of the Bears winning close games continues which is no shock at this point. QB Williams has shown a lot of growth this season under Ben Johnson. WR DJ Moore was a key player in this match getting two receiving touchdowns. RB Monongai also punched in a touchdown, making him the most consistent to bet anytime touchdown. The Bears face the Eagles in Week 13. The Bears defense will need to step up to give the Bears any chance of winning. As +7 underdogs, Caleb Williams over passing yards is a good prop to look at.
JAX 27 @ ARI 24
Jaguars (7-4): The Jaguars trailed 14-10 going into the 1st half but were able to force overtime and won by 3. RB Travis Etienne Jr. had 15 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown. WR Jakobi Meyers had 4 receptions and a touchdown. WR Parker Washington continues to present the most value for anytime touchdown scorer as he has become one of Lawrences’ favorite targets. In this game, Washington had 5 receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown. TE Brenton Strange led the Jaguars with 93 yards. Lawrence over passing yards is a strong live bet in trailing situations. The Jaguars get an easier matchup against the Titans in Week 13 as they look to improve to 8-4.
Cardinals (3-8): The Cardinals definitely are more consistent with QB Jacoby Brissett leading the team. Brissett threw for an impressive 317 yards. With Harrison Jr. out, Michael Wilson has filled the WR1 position. Wilson led the team with 10 receptions and 118 yards. We previously mentioned that Wilson’s play wasn’t sustainable but as of right now he is proving us wrong. Continue to expect him to produce. Another player who has maintained his role is TE Trey McBride who had 9 receptions for 79 yards. The Cardinals face the Buccaneers in Week 13. I would look at McBride and Wilsons over receptions as they will be forced to the ball in this trailing game script. This could be a good spot for the Cardinals to cover +3.5 if QB Teddy Bridgewater gets the start over Baker Mayfield who is battling a shoulder injury.
CLE 24 @ LV 10
Browns (3-8): In QB Shedeur Sanders first career start he pulled off a victory. Despite all of the negative things that the media has portrayed on him since going from a projected 1st round pick to a 5th round pick, he proved that he belongs in the league. The Browns have favored Dillion Gabriel all season but after struggling in recent weeks, Sanders finally got the start. Sanders should remain the starter for now, but we expect him to have the role permanently. Sanders showed his ability to launch the ball with a 66 yard passing touchdown to WR Dylan Sampson. RB Quinshon Judkins made a positive impact scoring 2 touchdowns. The Browns have a strong defense and with Sanders at QB, Judkins as the RB1 they are on the verge of becoming a winning team again. In Week 12 they will host the 49ers, but this is a spot where the value is all on the Browns. I’d lean Browns +4.5.
Raiders (2-9): The Raiders couldn’t buy a win. Despite losing there are some positives with how the ball was spread out to key players. QB Geno Smith threw for 285 yards against a good defense. RB Ashton Jeanty had 17 carries for 50 yards, 8 receptions for 58 yards, and a touchdown. This shows Jeanty’s capabilities of being a strong catching back. TE Brock Bowers got his target share with 6 receptions and 55 yards. WR Tyler Lockett has been a player who has presented betting value. Lockett had 4 receptions for 62 yards. Consider his over-receiving yards. In Week 13, the Raiders face the Chargers who are coming off a bye. Expect the Chargers to cover.
ATL 24 @ NO 10
Falcons (4-7): In QB Kirk Cousins first start of the season he was able to to pick up a win. Cousins completed 16 of 23 passes, but one of his passes was intercepted for a pick-six. Cousins' play style includes giving the running backs a lot of carries. RB Bijan Robinson had 14 carries for 70 yards and RB Tyler Allgeier had 12 carries for 44 yards. WR Darnell Mooney has seen the most increase with Drake London out. Mooney only had 3 receptions but one of them was a 49-yard touchdown. Consider his longest reception over. The Falcons look to take on the Jets in Week 13. I expect a closer game with the value being on the Jets +3.
Saints (2-9): QB Tyler Shough threw for 243 yards and led the team with 22 rushing yards. RB Alvin Kamara left with an injury, but the run game still wasn’t effective. WR Chris Olave was the top target with 9 receptions for 70 yards. TE Juwan Johnson continues to produce for the Saints as a top 2 target. He tallied 6 receptions for 46 yards. In Week 13, the Saints face the Dolphins. There are not many spots where we would back the Dolphins, but this is one of them.
PHI 21 @ DAL 24
Eagles (8-3): The Eagles got off to a hot start going up 21-0 in the 2nd quarter, but then took their foot off the gas. To the blind eye, it seemed as though the Eagles solved their internal problems as AJ Brown was getting the ball on every drive and scored the opening touchdown. Brown was the top receiver with 8 receptions for 110 yards, but the Eagles struggled in the run game. RB Barkely only had 22 rushing yards, but was effective in the receiving game with 52 yards. WR Devonte Smith had a positive impact with 6 receptions for 89 yards and his longest reception of 41 yards. Consider Smith’s longest reception over as he is the deep ball threat. The Eagles will need to get Barkley going against the Bears in Week 13. The Bears have a strong record, but have a lot of single score wins. Expect the Eagles to bounce back and end the Bears win streak.
Cowboys (5-5-1): It was a bad start, but the biggest comeback of the year. This tells us to never count out the Cowboys. Prescott threw for 354 yards, RB Williams rushed for 87 yards, and WR Pickens led with 9 receptions and 146 yards. With the Cowboys trailing as expected, this helped cash the over 4.5 receptions for Jake Ferguson. Ferguson typically gets the ball multiple times on one drive and it's typically at the end of the first half and the end of the game. Prescott uses him as his go to safe target to move the chains. Ferguson will continue to present value on the over 4.5 receptions instead of his yards as he is used for short gains. In Week 13, the Cowboys go up against the Chiefs who are coming off a comeback win themselves. There is value on the Cowboys +3.5, but with how much money has come in on the Cowboys, we bought down to -2.5 for the Chiefs. You can play -2.5 for the Chiefs and +3.5 for the Cowboys as a middle. Both hit if Chiefs win by exactly 3. Also can take Cowboys +3.5 pre-game and then live bet the Chiefs moneyline if the Cowboys get an early lead.
TB 7 @ LAR 34
Buccaneers (6-5): QB Baker Mayfield left this game early due to a left shoulder injury when he tried to launch the ball downfield. It is an odd injury due to the fact that he throws with his right arm, but Mayfield has been prone to shoulder injuries. Backup QB Teddy Bridgewater replaced him but was unable to keep the offense going. It was clear there was major rust in Bridgewater’s game. It is not easy to be thrown into games unexpectedly. We saw this with Browns QB Sanders last week. Expect the Bucs to start Bridgewater in Week 13 and for him to be more prepared. The Buccaneers will face the Cardinals in Week 13. The line is currently at -2.5 with Bridgewater expected to start. It could be a good spot to take the -2.5 as the line will likely move to -6.5 if the Bucs decide to play Mayfield. RB Bucky Irving will play.
Rams (9-2): The Rams put the pedal to the medal. They started strong with a 14-0 lead after the 1st quarter. They continued to press, scoring another 17 points in the 2nd quarter to give themselves a 31-7 lead at half. They took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half only scoring a field goal. WR Davante Adams remains the top player to bet on for all-time touchdown scorer. He had 2 in this game. WR Puka Nacua led with 7 receptions and 97 yards. His line is extremely high (89.5), which presents value on the under. The Rams are -10.5 favorites against the Panthers in Week 13. Unpopular opinion, but like the Panthers +10.5 as we don’t bet on double digit favorites.
CAR 9 @ SF 20
Panthers (6-6): The Panthers were completely off their game. The run game was not effective, but there was value on RB Chuba Hubbard over 14.5 rushing yards. He had 16, but averaged 37 a game. Hubbard was the starting back to start the season but when he was out with injury, Dowdle took over. Now they are both getting carries, but the value will continue to be on Hubbard. The trailing script forced the Panthers to throw, but QB Bryce Young struggled immensely and threw 2 interceptions. This was not a good showing for the Panthers, but expect them to get back into form against the Rams. Don’t expect the Panthers to beat the Superbowl favorite, but 10.5 points is a lot.
49ers (8-4): QB Brock Purdy threw 3 interceptions but the 49ers still managed to win by 11 points. The 49ers defense played well, but it was mostly due to the Panthers inability to move the ball all game that helped the 49ers cover the spread. RB Christian McCaffrey had 24 carries for 89 yards, 7 receptions for 53 yards, and a touchdown. McCaffrey over receiving yards holds the most value as a top catching back in the lead. TE George Kittle also had a good performance with 6 receptions for 78 yards, but was kept out of the endzone due to the 49ers not converting. The 49ers will go up against the Browns. Expect the Browns to cover at home.
Week 13 Insights
Week 13 is American Thanksgiving so there is a different schedule for the games. 3 games Thursday, 1 game Friday, 11 games Sunday, 1 game Monday. All teams play this week, there are no byes.
Thanksgiving day is a chalk heavy day. Since 2004, favourites are 51-9 straight up and 40-20 against the spread.
Zig Zag theory. Teams that did not cover in last week's games, cover in the next week. This applies to Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens.
Thursday Games
Chiefs -2.5 (-139, Pinnacle)
The Chiefs pushed on the -3 spread last week against the Colts and the Cowboys covered the +3.5 against the Eagles. Zig Zag theory means that the Chiefs will cover this week and the Cowboys won’t.
The public is heavy on the Cowboys after their big upset over the Eagles. 81% of the money is on the +3.5. We are buying down to -2.5 to get the key number.
Lean: under 52.5
Lions -2.5 (-115, Pinnacle)
The Lions did not cover the -10.5 against the Giants last week and the Packers did cover the -6 spread against the Vikings. Zig Zag theory means that the Lions will cover this week and the Packers won’t.
The Lions lost the first game against the Packers in Week 1. The Lions winning aligns with splitting the season series. The Lions are 5-1 straight up as favorites on Thanksgiving. Although these stats favor the moneyline more than the spread, -2.5 covers a field goal which is the most common way of victory..
Head to head, the Lions are 6-4 in the last 10 and in the two games that the Lions were -2.5 favorites they covered the spread. Some sportsbooks have already moved from -2.5 to 3. Make sure you get the -2.5.
Lean: over 47.5
Ravens -6.5 (-112, Pinnacle)
The Ravens did not cover the -13.5 spread against the Jets last week and the Bengals did cover the +7.5 spread against the Patriots. Zig Zag theory means that the Ravens will cover this week and the Bengals won’t.
Favorites on Thanksgiving in the night games are 14-4 ATS.
Joe Burrow’s first game back from injury and WR Tee Higgins is out with a concussion meaning the offense is at a disadvantage.
Ravens are on a 5 game win streak, the Bengals are on a 4 game losing streak.
Lean: under 52.5
