Week 14 Recap & Week 15 Insights

Week 14 Newsletter Picks 2-1 ✅

Jameson Williams over 28.5 longest reception ✅

• Williams' longest reception was 30 yards. He had a 25 yard reception earlier in the game, but a high scoring game opened the gate to Goff continuing to launch the deep ball against the Cowboys defense.

Seahawks -6.5 ✅

• The Seahawks destroyed the Falcons 37-9. They won by 28 points, covering the -6.5 spread.

Chase Brown over 49.5 rushing yards ❌

• Chase Brown had 2 touchdowns in this game, but only had 23 rushing yards. This was very odd as the Bengals had the lead until midway through the 4th quarter. The Bengals were underdogs and expected to play from behind, but we knew their motivation to make the playoffs could have them in the lead and allow them to run the ball. The game lined up for Chase to run, but he didn’t. Additionally, the Bills have struggled to stop the run game. The game script couldn’t have been more set up for this bet to hit, but the Bengals just decided not to implement the run game.

Trends

Using a team's last performance as a sole indicator on how you anticipate them to play the following week will have you losing your bankroll. The NFL has been absolutely unpredictable this season for how inconsistent teams have been. One week the Bills are dominant, the next they get blown out and are out of the Superbowl conversation. Teams in the hunt like the Chiefs should be winning games to get into the playoffs but they are struggling. The Eagles won the Superbowl last year and are now on a 3-game losing streak. Jalen Hurts isn’t playing good football and Saquon Barkley isn’t producing like last season. The Ravens truly haven’t looked good all season and are on the verge of not making the playoffs. The Colts were the most improved team, but not with Jones out, their season might be over. All of this has opened the door for new teams to get into the playoffs.

• 7/14 (50%) games went under 24.5 in the 1st half, a major decline from last week.

• 9/14 (64%) teams that won the game lead the time of possession battle.

Headlines

DAL 30 @ DET 44

Cowboys (6-6-1): The public was heavy on the Cowboys while the sharps were heavy on the Lions. We’ve seen that after a team has played well, they public bets on them the next week. The Cowboys beat the Eagles then the Chiefs. With the Lions struggling to be consistent, the Cowboys were an easy pick to take on the +3.5 spread. Typically when a line is too good to be true, the winning pick is the opposite line. The Cowboys lost by 14 making that pre game spread a big trap. The Cowboys were in this game and led in a lot of key statistical categories such as 1st downs, total plays, total yards, and possession time. Unfortunately, they threw 2 interceptions and had a lost fumble. QB Prescott threw for 376 yards, WR Lamb had 6 receptions for 121 and a touchdown before leaving, but WR Ryan Flournoy led with 9 receptions, 115 yards, and a touchdown. Kicker Brandon Aubrey went 5/5, scoring 16 points and his longest kick being 63 yards. He is easily the best kicker in the league and a true secret weapon the Cowboys can depend on to stay in and win games. This is why going for it on 4th downs don’t make sense for the Cowboys, they can get to mid field and put up 3 points almost automatically. The Cowboys are -5.5 favourites against the Vikings on Sunday Night. This is a great spot for the Cowboys who are coming off a loss and the Vikings are coming off a 31-0 win.

Lions (8-5): The Lions won this game because of RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Similar to how the Cowboys have Aubrey as a secret weapon, Gibbs is a weapon for the Lions when he turns on the jets. Against a subpar Cowboys defense, Gibbs was able to score 3 touchdowns on 12 carries for 43 yards and 7 receptions for 77 yards. Gibbs has scored 3 touchdowns in 3 games this season which have been in the last 6 games. He hasn’t been consistent game to game, but him scoring 3 touchdowns has been game off, game on. If this trend continues, he isn’t supposed to score a touchdown this week against the LA Rams. This would be fitting because in every game that the Lions have lost this season, Gibbs hasn’t scored. The Lions are +6.5 on the spread. Based on them winning last week, the public will likely take the Lions +6.5, but from these trends, the Rams are the side I would recommend.

PIT 27 @ BAL 22

Steelers (7-6): Upset the Ravens as +7 underdogs. The Steelers on the road beat the Ravens by 5 despite being outplayed in the majority of statistical categories. Key places the Steelers led were having no turnovers, completing more passes/passing yards, and obviously more points. The surprising thing is how little the Steelers ran the ball. There was almost no run game except for in the red zone where QB Rodgers and RB Gainwell ran in touchdowns. WR DK Metcalf led the team with 7 receptions for 148 yards, but RB Warren was the only one to get a receiving touchdown. This performance showcases how Rodgers loves to utilize his running backs. The Steelers are leaders in the AFC North. They go on to host the Miami Dolphins in Week 15. This is a tough one. The Dolphins are winning games and motivated to make the playoffs. Tua doesn't play well in the cold, but they have been winning games with the run game. At home, the Steelers have the overall edge.

Ravens (6-7): It is clear that the Ravens are not the same team this season. QB Lamar Jackson is not 100% after coming back from injury and the team as a whole doesn't seem in sync. Rumors are that the team doesn't like their head coach and this can be part of their struggles to come together as a unit. In this game, the Ravens did involve all of their key players and couldn't get the job done. This makes this loss even more concerning. RB Derrick Henry had 25 carries for 94 yards, WR Zay Flowers had 8 receptions for 124 yards. It's good to have these players be involved, but when it's not enough to win games they need to activate TE Mark Andrews, WR Rashod Bateman, and WR D’Andre Hopkins. The Ravens are up against the Bengals in Week 15 who they just faced. The Ravens at this point are highly overrated. The power ratings are making them a favorite on the road when they got blown out just two weeks ago to the Bengals and lost back to back games as -7 favorites. Bengals spread is the valuable side.

IND 19 @ JAX 36

Colts (8-5): QB Daniel Jones left this game after only completing 5 passes. He has been ruled out for the rest of the season. This left the game in the hands of backup Riley Leonard who completed 18 of 29 passes. Leonard had an interception but also scrambled in for a rushing touchdown. The Colts had 2 interceptions and a fumble which was part of the reason they were not able to get close in this game. RB Taylor had 21 carries for 74 yards and scored a touchdown. Pierce and Pittman led receivers with receptions and yards. TE Tyler Warren was barely involved and has seen a major decline in utilization over the past few weeks. It will be interesting to see how target shares change with QB Phillip Rivers coming out of retirement to start for the Colts in Week 15. It will not be an easy game for the Colts as they play the Seattle Seahawks who are one of the most consistent teams in the league.

Jaguars (9-4): The Jaguars were slight underdogs at home against the Colts. Everyone was expecting a bounce back performance from the Colts but once Jones got injured it flipped the script. You cannot expect a backup QB to enter a game and make a difference. They are not mentally prepared and are more so trying to help the team survive rather than make an impact. Situations like this emphasize how things can change everything during a live game and as a bettor you need to adapt. If you had the Jags pre game then this was a major advantage towards your bet. The Jags used this to their advantage and the defense made stops to give the offense some breathing room. QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns. RB Travis Etienne led the backfield with 20 carries for 74 yards and 2 touchdowns. WR Tim Patrick had the most receptions with 5 and scored a touchdown. Although Patrick would have the highest odds to get a touchdown out of the receivers, Jakobi Meyers has stepped into the WR1 role and is most likely out of them to get a touchdown. The Jaguars look great and they host the New York Jets in Week 15. The Jaguars will dominate this matchup.

NO 24 @ TB 20

Buccaneers (7-6): It was a low scoring first half, but the Bucs were able to go into it with a 10-7 lead. RB Bucky Irving scored a 24-yard receiving touchdown. The Bucs were not in sync offensively and QB Mayfield struggled to move the ball. His completion rate was below 50% and he only threw for 122 yards. The backfield was split between Irving and RB Rachaad White who put up similar yardage but Irving had 4 more carries. Sean Tucker also had a couple snaps, one of them he scored a rushing touchdown. In the receivers room, WR Chris Godwin led with 5 receptions for 55 yards, but Emeka Egbuka only had 2 receptions for 15 yards. Egbuka has been a WR1 for this team in the absence of Godwin and Evans, but has struggled as of late. We expect the Bucs to step up against the Falcons in Week 15. They are still -5 on some sportsbooks, but have moved to -6.5 on others. This tells us that there has been strong line movement due to the action coming in on them. This makes the Falcons line better for those who want to fade the Bucs, but this is a spot where I would be taking the Bucs.

Saints (3-10): QB Tyler Shough has been getting better each week since he was announced the starter for the Saints. He completed 13 of 20 passes and only threw for 144 yards, but he had 7 carries for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has developed confidence in his run game and this can be a great live betting opportunity when trailing in games. With Alvin Kamara out, the Saints were led by Devin Neal who had 19 carries for 70 yards. The Saints host the Carolina Panthers (-2.5 favorites) in Week 15 who are motivated to get into the playoffs.

MIA 34 @ NYJ 10

Dolphins (6-7): The Dolphins had an explosive start scoring 3 touchdowns in the 1st quarter. All 3 running backs had touchdowns showing the effectiveness that their run game has. Tua did not throw an interception but he only completed 13 of 21 passes. This was a heavy run game for the Dolphins. They took advantage of a fumble and an interception, and with a backup quarterback playing. The Dolphins have been winning games and have a path to make the playoffs despite having a brutal start to the season. The Steelers will be a tougher matchup for them in Week 15.

Jets (3-10): We had a pre game lean on the Jets to cover the spread and win the game, but after completing 1 pass, QB Tyrod Taylor left the game and did not return. This flipped the game script and backup QB Brady Cook stepped in. He completed 14/30 passes and threw for 163 yards. RB Breece Hall led the backfield as expected with 14 carries for 43 yards. TE Mason Taylor had the most receptions with 5. It will be interesting to see who the top target is Week 15 with Cook starting. A lot of people were wondering why Justin Fields didn’t come into the game. It was due to him being on the injury report. The Jets never scored an offensive touchdown all game. They only had a 78 yard punt return. They are starting Brady Cook against the Jaguars in Week 15. They will get blown out.

WSH 0 @ MIN 31

Commanders (3-10): Pretty horrific performance by the Commanders. QB Daniels started and didn’t look great and then got injured. I don’t understand why he was put into this game to begin with. Their season is done and he’s not gaining anything from playing when he's not 100%. Mariota stepped in but between the 2 of them, they only completed the ball 11 times. TE Zach Ertz also got injured and is likely calling it a career. Additionally the Commanders didn’t score a point so overall just a bad day for them. The Commanders face the Giants who are coming off a bye and are in better shape than the Commanders overall.

Vikings (5-8): Dominated 31-0. The defense for the Vikings has been really good lately giving the offense more time to get it going. But the offense also played great in this game and led in every category. McCarthy went 16/23, 163 yards, and threw 3 touchdowns. His targets were the tight ends in the red zone. TE Josh Oliver had 2 touchdowns and T.J. Hockenson had 1. RB Jordan Mason also found his way into the endzone, but Aaron Jones led the snaps with 14 carries. McCarthy spread the ball out but it was Jordan Addison with the most receptions (4). Justin Jefferson has to be frustrated only getting 2 receptions. It’s a team sport, but when one of the leagues best players isn’t getting the ball it can lead to him requesting a trade. The Vikings go up against the Cowboys in Week 15. Expect the Cowboys to win the game, but the spread is +6.5 and there is sharp action coming in on the Vikings. McCarthy hasn’t been consistent and the Cowboys defense has been getting better each week. I lean to the Cowboys side despite the public coming in on them. They are the better team and now that they are letting Aubrey kick on 4th downs instead of going for it, they are putting up more points.

TEN 31 @ CLE 29

Titans (2-11): Despite having a bad record this season, the Titans have been getting better. Covering some spreads late in the game is typically their specialty. They started this game hot with 2 touchdowns in the 1st quarter. Cam Ward did not impress as he only completed 50% of his passes and threw for 117 yards. It was RB Tony Pollard who had the performance of the year for this team. He had 25 carries for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns. His longest run was a 65 yard touchdown. It is a difficult thing to do in any game, but against the Browns who typically have one of the top units is truly impressive. The Titans were able to hold off the Browns to get their 2nd win of the season. We don’t expect the Titans to hand the ball off to Pollard in Week 15 when they go up against the 49ers. The 49ers should dominate them and cover by 2 touchdowns, forcing the Titans to throw more often then rush. However, at the beginning of the game they will run the ball so looking at Pollard 10+ yards in the 1st quarter could be a great bet.

Browns (3-10): This was a game most people marked their calendar for when Sanders was expected to be drafted to the Browns 2nd overall, but he fell to the 5th round and still ended up on the Browns. Cam Ward went 1st overall to the Titans and that made this a game everyone wanted to follow despite how poorly each team has done this season. Sanders had a great performance throwing 364 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also led the team in rushing with 3 carries for 29 yards. RB Quinshon Judkins couldn’t get anything going as he only had 26 yards on 14 carries. TE Fannin Jr. led the team with 8 receptions for 114 yards and scored a touchdown. Despite a good effort, the Browns made one of the worst 2-pt conversion attempts ever and lost the game because of it. Even more suspicious is that Sanders wasn’t in for the snap. We expect HC Stefanski to be fired once the season is done. There have been too many questionable calls from him this season. The Browns will go up against the Bears who are led by 1st overall pick from last year's draft, Caleb Williams. The Bears will have their way against the Browns.

CIN 34 @ BUF 39

Bengals (4-9): The Bengals led this game until midway through the 4th quarter. They deserved to win this game, but Josh Allen showed why he is the best QB in the game. Chase Brown and Tee Higgins both had 2 touchdowns. Higgins will be out against the Ravens in Week 15 as he suffered an injury against the Bills in the 4th quarter. This is a big loss for the Bengals, but that means Ja'Marr Chase will get more targets.

Bills (9-4): Bills got lucky and made a 4th quarter comeback. They scored 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Josh Allen had a 40 yard rushing TD, then Bentford had a 63 yards interception that he returned. The Bengals threw another interception and that led to another scoring drive for the Bills. The Bills did not deserve to win this game, but they pulled it off. TE Dawson Knox saw the most receptions with 6 for 93 yards. Next up was TE Kincaid who had 4 receptions. As you know by now the Bills do not have a consistent person they go to, it’s very much a team effort. This week we have Coleman over 1.5 receptions at -155 as the Bills face the Patriots.

SEA 37 @ ATL 9

Seahawks (10-3): The Seahawks spread closed at -6.5 which was a major value spot for them and made it on as one of our newsletter picks of the week. The Seahawks have been producing all year long and have been one of the only consistent teams in the league. Going up against a Falcons team who fell off this season early and have suffered key player injuries we knew they wouldn’t stack up. The time of possession was close but the Seahawks had the ball for 3 more minutes and in that time were able to score 37 points to the Falcons 9 and throw for 100+ more yards. QB Darnold threw for 249 yards, WR Smith-Njigba led with 7 receptions for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns. The run game wasn’t a focus for the Seahawks, but RB Walker led with 10 carries and Charbonnet had 7. Rashid Shaheed had a 100 yard kickoff return touchdown. This is not something we see often so it deserves a shoutout when it does. Shaheed has given the Seahawks more depth which makes the Seahawks true contenders to win the Superbowl this season. The Seahawks are -13.5 favorites against the Colts in Week 15 as the Colts have brought Phillip Rivers out of retirement and are expected to start him. As a rule of thumb we do not bet double digit favorites, but this would be a spot we would take the Seahawks side.

Falcons (4-9): Without Drake London, the Falcons don’t have any offensive momentum. QB Kirk Cousins has not been able to find his rhythm and the Falcons couldn’t even score a touchdown with two solid running backs. Cousins only completed 50% of his passes and only threw for 162 yards. RB Brian Robinson led the attack with 20 carries for 86 yards. RB Allgeier saw a decrease in reps this week with 11. Both running back had 2 receptions, but TE Kyle Pitts was the top guy for Cousins who had 6 receptions for 90 yards. The Falcons opened as +4 underdogs to the Buccaneers, but the line has now moved to +6.5. Some would argue that +6.5 has value, but with the Falcons not being able to produce offensively with this group it is not a good pick.

DEN 24 @ LV 17

Broncos (11-2): Improved record to 11-2 but it wasn’t dominant. In fact almost none of their wins this season have been dominant, making this week's game against the Packers one where they should lose to the better team. Against the Raiders, the Broncos led in all categories, but they possessed the ball for 19 more minutes and only had 7 more points to show for. RJ Harvey led the backfield with 17 carries for 75 yards and scored a touchdown. WR Courtland Sutton led with 6 receptions for 62 yards. To say the least the Broncos offense isn’t as good as it looks. They do enough to get by but against any solid defensive team they will place in the playoffs, I truly think they lose. The Broncos were fortunate to get a 48 yard punt return to help out in the scoring game.

Raiders (2-11): This Raiders team is pretty awful with Geno Smith this year, but they found ways to score against the Broncos who have one of the top units in the league. Geno Smith left the game with a shoulder injury and Kenny Pickett filled in. A lot of people were discussing why the Raiders kicked a field goal at the end of the game to cover the spread. Well they didn’t care about the spread, they wanted a chance to win the game. If they get a field goal, then recover an onside kick, they can tie up the game. Teams down 9,10,11 at the end of the game will kick because there is always a chance to get the ball back. Pickett will start in Week 15 against the Eagles. Pickett won a Superbowl as a backup with the Eagles last season and they are +12.5 underdogs. As a double digit line, I would lean to the Raiders side because the Eagles don’t know how to play offense right now. Pickett is a solid backup with starting experience when he played for the Steelers. I think it’s a better team with Pickett than Smith.

LAR 45 @ ARI 17

Rams (10-3): Made a statement they were not pleased with their loss last week. They ran up the score and did not take their foot off the gas. They scored 3 rushing touchdowns, 1 from Kyren Williams, and 2 from backup RB Blake Corum. Corum had 128 yards on the ground and Williams had 84. Puka Nacua had a big day with 7 receptions for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns. Adams did not get into the endzone as the Rams decided to run on short and goal. The Rams get a bigger challenge this week facing the Lions who are coming off a 14 pt win over the Cowboys. I love the Rams in this spot to cover -5.5. They have been super consistent and the Lions are on a trend to have an off game.

Cardinals (3-10): When Harrison Jr. is not playing, Michael Wilson is an absolute cheat code. 11 receptions for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns. If the connection between him and Brissett is so strong, I don’t know why they don’t make him the focus even when Harrison Jr. plays. The Cardinals are +10 on the spread against the Texans. Love them to cover in this spot as they do not give up and usually score to cover at the end of games. Also Wilson over receptions and yards is a must take since Harrison Jr. is ruled out for Week 15.

CHI 21 @ GB 28

Bears (9-4): The Bears held up in this game against the Packers, but a 4th down interception ended the game. Williams was trying to pass the ball to Kmet for a touchdown. The pass was too short and it was an easy pick for the Packers. This was a poor decision by Williams who had all of the time in the world and rolled out to his left, throwing from a very awkward position. I think that he had a better chance running for the first down and then getting a new set of downs. Swift and Monongai split reps in the backfield but neither got in the endzone. The Bears play the Browns in Week 15. The Bears could have a big run game if the Browns play like last week.

Packers (9-3-1): Packers played a complete game and got the win. Love was accurate, completing 17/25 passes for 234 yards. Jacobs was efficient with 20 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown. WR Christian Watson has been the WR1 for a few weeks now. He had 4 receptions for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns. Love him anytime touchdown bet and his longest reception over against the Broncos in Week 15.

HOU 20 @ KC 10

Texans (8-5): Texans have turned their season around and won 5-0. Tonight they proved themselves by stopping Mahomes. It wasn’t an offensive masterclass by any means, but they were able to show up on defense and stop the Chiefs from scoring. The Cardinals will put more throwing pressure on the Texans and I think they will succeed. This means the Texans will have to score more often rather than playing defense to win this game. -10 spread is way too high for this team who hasn’t scored touchdowns in multiple games this year.

Chiefs (6-7): Mahomes led the Chiefs with 59 rushing yards. This has been an area of concern all year. The running backs just haven’t been as effective as in year’s past, but Hunt is still getting key 1st downs and scoring touchdowns. The receivers all need to wake up. They all dropped several passes in this game and it was very uncharacteristic. This loss isn’t on Mahomes, he's actually had himself one of his best seasons. Everyone around him is dropping the ball, literally., The window is closing for the Chiefs to make the playoffs. After this loss they must win every game remaining. The 1st challenge is the Chargers in Week 15. Chiefs are favorites because of Herbert’s hand injury and the Chargers playing in the cold. The Chargers did beat the Eagles last week, but that isn’t a tough task at this point. Chiefs money line is a bad price, wait to take it live. Pre-game the -4.5 spread is better, but can also buy it to +3.5 in a teaser.

PHI 19 @ LAC 22

Eagles (8-5): It was another sleeper for the Eagles who couldn’t find a way to get anything going in this game. Finally RB Barkley found a spark and had a normal game for his caliber. He had 20 carries for 122 yards, and a touchdown. This was a regular occurrence last season, but this year it has only happened a couple times. AJ Brown continues to put up WR! Numbers having 6 receptions for 100 yards. TE Dallas Goedert also had a solid performance with 8 receptions for 78 yards in a game most people thought he would be invisible. However it still wasn’t enough for the Eagles to win as they lost in overtime. Eagles vs. Raiders in Week 15. Expect the Eagles to win, but not by 2 touchdowns.

Chargers (9-4): The Chargers pulled off the upset against the Eagles in overtime. Herbert’s hand was a concern after getting surgery on it. We didn’t expect any big throws, but he did had a couple. Herbert used his legs and led the team with 66 rushing yards. Most of his passes were short but RB Vidal did break out for a 60 yard reception. In Week 15 the Chargers will head to play in the cold against the Chiefs. I expect them to lose this game with the Chiefs motivation to make the playoffs and split the season series. Remember in Week 1 that the Chargers beat them.

Week 15 Newsletter Picks

Mayfield over 17.5 rush yards

• In the last 4 games, Mayfield has covered over 17.5 rushing yards. 39 against Buffalo, 19 against the Rams, 27 against the Cardinals, and 42 against the Saints.

Bengals +3 ( -114, Bet105)

• Only two weeks ago the Ravens and Bengals played in Baltimore. The Bengals were +7.5 underdogs and won outright 32-14. Now the Bengals are home underdogs at +3. The Bengals still have a path to making the playoffs and the Ravens have not been able to find themselves all season. Given the field goal to give, the Bengals are the side to be on in this game.

Keon Coleman over 1.5 receptions (-155)

• Coleman has covered this line in every single game he has played in this season. He has missed some games as a healthy scratch due to his behavior off the field, but he will be a factor in this game. The Bills will be forced to throw the ball with the Patriots being offensively dominant all season. The Bills don’t have a consistent WR1, which means Coleman can have a large target share.

Blog Picks

Cardinals +10 (-111, Tonniebet)

• The Houston Texans have been winning games, but their offense is spotty. The Cardinals have not been able to win games, but they do not give up at the end of games. We do not bet on double digit favorites and the Texans are not a team that blows out opponents. Therefore all the value is on the Cardinals covering the key number of +10.

Bengals ML (+136, Bet105)

• For the same reason why we gave out the +3, we also think the Bengals will win this game outright. Burrow looked great and put up 30+ points against the Bills. The Bengals are showing they can score and defend, but last week they just had an unfortunate series of events against the Bills.

Packers ML (-130, Bet99)

• The Broncos have a better record, but have been barely getting by teams all season. They have had a lot of luck on their side winning games in the 4th quarter against bad teams. The Packers beat the Lions and the Bears in the last two games which has proved they can compete on both sides of the ball. The Broncos haven't dominated anyone except the Cowboys and Bengals this season and almost lost to the Commanders in overtime.

Rams -5.5 (-115, Fanduel)

• The Rams are the better team on both sides of the ball. Stafford is having a MVP season and dominates against man to man coverage. The Lions have been inconsistent all season and after a strong performance last week and Gibbs scoring 3 touchdowns, they are on trend to regress.