Week 16 Recap & Week 17 Insights
Week 16 Newsletter Picks 2-1 ✅
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (+125, Fanduel) ❌
Analysis: The Rams have had a lot of different players score touchdowns recently but they have been focused on running in the red zone over the past 2 weeks. With Adam’s likely out, this creates more opportunity for running backs to get in the end zone and as the leading back, there is value at +125 for Williams. Most of the bets are on Nacua and Smith-Njigba but the most bet anytime td props in pristine games have not been winning this season.
Review: Depending on the sportsbook you use for anytime touchdowns you could have gotten a better price from the time we posted the pick to when the game started. Most sportsbooks had Williams priced around +125 but moved to +140 before kickoff. Unfortunately he did not get into the endzone as backup RB Blake Corum was put in on redzone snaps. We knew of the risk of this occurring but after him scoring 2 touchdowns the week prior, we believed Williams would return to getting more consistent reps.
Chargers +2.5 (-110, PointsBet) ✅
Analysis: The Chargers are +110 underdogs against the Cowboys. The Chargers have been more consistent this season and have a 10-4 record. Although on the road they don’t deserve to be underdogs.
Review: The Chargers took care of business beating the Cowboys 37-17. We understood that they were not the favorite due to being on the road, but looking at recent performance, the Chargers have been the more trustworthy team.
Patriots +3 (-110, Powerplay) ✅
Analysis: The Patriots are coming off a bad loss to the Bills but are looking to bounce back against the Ravens who are fighting for a playoff spot. The mentality is to beat them now so you don’t have to worry about them in the playoffs.
Review: It was a back and forth game, but the Patriots rose above and won the game. For once, we were on the opposite side of an injury that helped us. We always discuss that we do not like to see any players get injured, but it is the nature of the game and not something we can control. Last week injuries impacted our bets, but this week it finally helped us.
Most importantly, we responded with a winning week.
Trends
Week 16 was the week of the underdog. A lot of mispriced lines with the home teams getting the bets from the public.
Backup quarterbacks have taken over the league due to injuries.
We also witnessing a new era where the teams who have dominated over the past few seasons are falling apart, making room for new teams to reach the playoffs.
Out of 16 games:
10/16 (62%) finished under 24.5 points in the first half.
12/16 (75%) time of possession leaders won the game
Average total: 49.1 points
Most common total: 75 points
Average first half total: 23.6 points
Average margin: 10.1 points
Most common margin: 3 points
Playoff Teams Clinched
AFC:
Denver Broncos
New England Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Chargers
NFC:
Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams
Last Week’s Headlines Highlights
The Falcons are 3-5, but after that win against the Bucs, they gained the public's attention.
The Bucs are -3 road favorites, but aren’t playing like they deserve that number.
Lean is on the Raiders to cover +14.5.
The line opened at +4, meaning there is action coming in on the Saints to cover.
It is tough to bet against the Broncos right now, but I think there is value on the Jaguars +3.5.
The line is priced accurately based on how each team has played recently and the lean here would be on the Vikings ML (-144, Bet105).
One of our newsletter picks of the week is the Patriots +3.
The Ravens have a tough opponent facing the Patriots in week 16. Despite winning 24-0 in week 15, they do not deserve to be favored by more than the Bills were against the Patriots.
With Micah Parsons out and the season series split factor, I will side with the Bears ML at -122.
The Rams are likely without Davante Adams and won the first game of the season series so the Seahawks side is priced accurately.
In week 16 we are siding with the Chargers. Although it's the public side, we have been on the Cowboys often this season and they have let us down. Herbert doesn't deserve the +2.5 underdog line.
Week 16 Recaps
LAR 37 @ SEA 38
Rams (11-4-0): Rams blew a 16-point lead in the 4th quarter and lost to the Seahawks in overtime after failing to stop a 2-pt conversion. QB Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards with 3 touchdowns. RB Kyren Williams led the team with 23 carries for 70 yards. RB Blake Corum added 14 carries for 48 yards and scored 1 touchdown. Blake Corum got the red zone touches, which is worth noting for touchdown props. WR Puka Nacua was the top target with 12 receptions for 225 yards on 16 targets and 2 touchdowns. Konata Mumpfield had 3 receptions for 40 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Atlanta to play the Falcons and the Rams are -8 favorites. Early lean is the Rams spread as we believe they will bounce back after the loss.
Seahawks (12-3-0): Seahawks edged out Rams 38-37. QB Sam Darnold threw for 270 yards with 2 touchdowns but threw 2 interceptions. RB Kenneth Walker III led the team with 11 carries for 100 yards and 1 touchdown. RB Zach Charbonnet added 9 carries for 32 yards and scored 1 touchdown. The backfield was split between Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, but the stats show Walker had some breakout runs that were a big part of the comeback. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the top target with 8 receptions for 96 yards on 13 targets and scored 1 touchdown. AJ Barner had 4 receptions for 49 yards. In Week 17, they traveled to Carolina to play the Panthers. The Seahawks are -7 favorites and the total is set at 42.5, I would tease the Seahawks spread down and the over down.
PHI 29 @ WSH 18
Eagles (10-5-0): Eagles defeated Commanders 29-18 and secured their 2nd NFC East title in a row. QB Jalen Hurts threw for 185 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Saquon Barkley led the team with 21 carries for 132 yards and 1 touchdown. WR A.J. Brown was the top target with 9 receptions for 95 yards on 12 targets. DeVonta Smith had 6 receptions for 42 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Buffalo to play the Bills and are +2 road underdogs.
Commanders (4-11-0): Commanders came up short in a 11-point defeat against Eagles. QB Marcus Mariota threw for 95 yards, but was injured and left the game.. RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the team with 15 carries for 63 yards and 1 touchdown. RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt added 8 carries for 25 yards and scored 1 touchdown. WR Terry McLaurin was the top target with 3 receptions for 53 yards on 4 targets. Deebo Samuel had 3 receptions for 35 yards. In Week 17, they host the Cowboys and are +7 underdogs. Lines opened at -6.5 but the early action on the Cowboys moved it half a point. WR Deebo Samuel is incentivized by his contract to get 2 more receptions for $450k and 61 rec yards for another $250k. His line is set at o43.5 -114 Fanduel so taking the over against the Cowboys is a strong bet.
GB 16 @ CHI 22
Packers (9-5-1): Packers blew the game against the Bears. They were unable to get important stops at the end of the game. QB Jordan Love started the game but had an early exit. Backup QB Malik Willis played the majority of the game and threw for 121 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Emanuel Wilson led the team with 14 carries for 82 yards as RB Josh Jacobs got injured. Jacobs did have 12 carries for 36 yards before exiting. WR Romeo Doubs was the top target with 5 receptions for 84 yards on 6 targets and 1 touchdown. Luke Musgrave had 3 receptions for 38 yards. In Week 17, they host the Ravens and are -2.5 favorites. If healthy, I would take the Packers -2.5 at home.
Updated: The Ravens are more motivated due to trying to make the playoffs but still are a mess entering Week 17. Ravens starting QB Lamar Jackson is out. Packers QB Jordan Love is out, backup QB Malik Willis will get the start. Packers RB Josh Jacobs will play. The Packers have secured a playoff birth with the Lions Week 17 loss to the Vikings. This takes off the pressure from the Packers needing a win, but we still favor them at home in this matchup.
Bears (11-4-0): Bears edged out Packers 22-16 in an epic comeback. The Bears kicked a field goal then recovered the onside kick, scoring a touchdown to force overtime. In overtime they were able to launch a ball into the endzone to win the game. QB Caleb Williams threw for 250 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB D'Andre Swift led the team with 13 carries for 58 yards. RB Kyle Monangai added 9 carries for 50 yards. WR DJ Moore was the top target with 5 receptions for 97 yards on 7 targets and 1 touchdown. Kyle Monangai had 3 receptions for 43 yards. In Week 17, they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers and are +3 underdogs.
BUF 23 @ CLE 20
Bills (11-4-0): Bills edged out Browns 23-20. They built a 20-point first half lead and held on. QB Josh Allen threw for 130 yards. RB James Cook III led the team with 16 carries for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns. WR Khalil Shakir was the top target with 4 receptions for 34 yards on 5 targets. It was a bad performance by Allen who has trended on and off all season. Not what you want to see for a team that has their easiest path to a Super Bowl in the Allen-Mahomes era. Week 17, they host the Eagles and are -2 favorites. The Bills will treat this as a playoff game since they prepare to play the good teams. Bills -2 and Shakir to get a touchdown are leans. Shakir is contract incentivized.
Browns (3-12-0): Browns fell just short against Bills. QB Shedeur Sanders threw for 157 yards with 1 touchdown but threw 2 interceptions. RB Raheim Sanders led the team with 11 carries for 42 yards. RB Quinshon Judkins had 8 carries for 22 yards but was injured and is on IR, out for the season. WR Quinshon Judkins was the top target with 5 receptions for 29 yards on 6 targets but will now open up for someone else to lead with him out. Trayveon Williams had 4 receptions for 38 yards. In Week 17, they host the Steelers. The Steelers are -3 favorites. This line seems low, lean to the Steelers ML.
LAC 34 @ DAL 17
Chargers (11-4-0): Chargers dominated Cowboys 34-17. They built a 21-point first half lead and held on. QB Justin Herbert threw for 300 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Omarion Hampton led the team with 16 carries for 85 yards and 1 touchdown. RB Kimani Vidal added 5 carries for 11 yards. Omarion Hampton clearly has the RB1 role, with Kimani Vidal serving as the backup. WR Keenan Allen was the top target with 5 receptions for 44 yards on 5 targets. Quentin Johnston had 4 receptions for 104 yards. In Week 17, they host the Texans. Chargers ML is -119 and that is a top blog pick for this week. The Chargers offense is really clicking and believe they will put up more points at home than the Texans will do on the road. For incentives, Keenan Allen is incentivized 7 more receptions for 750k and 2 touchdowns for 250k.
Cowboys (6-8-1): Cowboys fell short in a 17-point loss to Chargers. They were shut out in the second half after scoring 17 points earlier. QB Dak Prescott threw for 244 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Javonte Williams led the team with 9 carries for 34 yards. RB Malik Davis added 8 carries for 23 yards. WR George Pickens was the top target with 7 receptions for 130 yards on 9 targets and 1 touchdown. CeeDee Lamb had 6 receptions for 51 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Washington to play the Commanders. They are -6.5 to -7 favorites and would be the side I’d lean to take. The Cowboys are out of the playoffs but have had a strong season and can put up points. The Commanders QB situation is unknown with Mariota injured in the last game.
KC 9 @ TEN 26
Chiefs (6-9-0): Chiefs fell short in a 17-point loss to Titans. QB Gardner Minshew was injured early and 3rd string Chris Oladokun stepped in and threw for 111 yards. RB Isiah Pacheco led the team with 8 carries for 34 yards. WR Isiah Pacheco was the top target with 6 receptions for 41 yards on 7 targets. Hollywood Brown had 3 receptions for 22 yards. In Week 17, they host the Broncos. Chiefs are +13 underdogs and there is no reason to take the Chiefs side. Their season is over and having a 3rd string QB gives them no hope to pull off covering a spread against one of the top teams this season. Losing to the last place team by 17 is strong enough evidence that they aren’t expected to put together a game plan to compete against the Broncos.
Titans (3-12-0): Titans dominated Chiefs 26-9. QB Cam Ward threw for 228 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Tony Pollard led the team with 21 carries for 102 yards. RB Tyjae Spears added 13 carries for 52 yards and scored 1 touchdown. Tyjae Spears got the red zone touches, which is worth noting for touchdown props. WR Chig Okonkwo was the top target with 6 receptions for 44 yards on 8 targets and 1 touchdown. Tyjae Spears had 5 receptions for 53 yards. In Week 17, they host the Saints but are +2.5 underdogs. The Saints ML -143 or -2.5 -110 is the side to be on. QB Tyler Shough has been playing lights out and if he wants to be considered for Rookie of the Year then the only way he makes a case for himself is by winning out. Beating the 1st overall pick will look good on his resume.
CIN 45 @ MIA 21
Bengals (5-10-0): Bengals dominated Dolphins 45-21. QB Joe Burrow threw for 309 yards with 4 touchdowns. RB Chase Brown led the team with 12 carries for 66 yards and 3 touchdowns in a single quarter. RB Samaje Perine added 7 carries for 25 yards and scored 1 touchdown. WR Ja'Marr Chase was the top target with 9 receptions for 109 yards on 11 targets. Chase Brown had 4 receptions for 43 yards. In Week 17, they host the Cardinals and are -7 favorites. Easy to see the Bengals cover with how they played last week.
Dolphins (6-9-0): Dolphins fell short in a 24-point loss to Bengals. QB Quinn Ewers started his first game for the Dolphins since they benched Tua and he threw for 260 yards but threw 2 interceptions. RB De'Von Achane led the team with 15 carries for 81 yards and 1 touchdown. RB Jaylen Wright added 9 carries for 35 yards and scored 1 touchdown. WR Jaylen Waddle was the top target with 5 receptions for 72 yards on 9 targets. Greg Dulcich had 3 receptions for 46 yards. In Week 17, they host the Buccaneers who are -5 favorites. The Buccaneers are on a bit of a bad run, but expected to win this game at moneyline odds of -251.
NYJ 6 @ NO 29
Jets (3-12-0): The Jets got dominated in a 23-point loss to the Saints. They were shut out in the second half after scoring 6 points in the first half. QB Brady Cook threw for 188 yards but threw 1 interception. RB Breece Hall led the team with 16 carries for 54 yards. WR Stone Smartt was the top target with 5 receptions for 34 yards on 5 targets. Isaiah Davis had 4 receptions for 52 yards. In Week 17, they host the Patriots who are looking to win the division title. The Pats beat the Jets by 13 earlier this season, but the Pats are playing better football now than they were and the Jets are significantly worse with Cooks at QB. Can’t recommend betting a -13.5 fav but buying them down in a teaser is a smart play.
Saints (5-10-0): Saints dominated Jets 29-6. QB Tyler Shough threw for 308 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Taysom Hill led the team with 12 carries for 42 yards. Hill made history as the first player to have 1000 passing yards, rushing yards, and receiving yards. RB Audric Estime added 5 carries for 19 yards. WR Chris Olave was the top target with 10 receptions for 148 yards on 16 targets and 2 touchdowns. Juwan Johnson had 8 receptions for 89 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Tennessee to play the Titans which we expect Shough to have another strong game.
MIN 16 @ NYG 13
Vikings (7-8-0): Vikings edged out Giants 16-13. They built a 13-point first half lead and held on. QB J.J. McCarthy threw for 108 yards but threw 1 interception before getting injured and leaving the game. Backup QB Matt Brosmer finished the game for the Vikings. RB Aaron Jones Sr. led the team with 21 carries for 85 yards. WR Justin Jefferson was the top target with 6 receptions for 85 yards on 8 targets. In Week 17, they host the Lions who haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs but have about a 2% chance to make it. With the Lions season likely over they are playing for pride. The Vikings beat them in the first match this season so with the trend of splitting season series we expect the Lions to come out and win this game. They are expected to win as -7 favorites.
Giants (2-13-0): Giants fell just short against Vikings. QB Jaxson Dart only threw for 33 yards and had an interception. RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the team with 16 carries for 71 yards. RB Devin Singletary added 11 carries for 47 yards. WR Wan'Dale Robinson was the top target with 3 receptions for 19 yards on 6 targets. In Week 17, they travel to Las Vegas to play the Raiders who we believe have a major edge to win this game. The Raiders ML is a blog pick for this week at -108, but if you want to play it safer, take the +1.5.
Updated: The Raiders are no longer a play. They have put TE Brock Bowers on IR and Max Crosby has been told to sit. This is a clear indication they are tanking this game as the loser of this game will get the first overall pick. Early indicators made this a good bet, but due to the changes during the week the Raiders are now +2.5 and no longer a blog pick.
TB 20 @ CAR 23
Buccaneers (7-8-0): Buccaneers fell just short against Panthers. QB Baker Mayfield threw for 145 yards with 1 touchdown but threw 1 interception. RB Bucky Irving led the team with 19 carries for 71 yards. RB Rachaad White added 5 carries for 45 yards. Bucky Irving clearly has the RB1 role, with Rachaad White serving as the backup. WR Mike Evans was the top target with 5 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets and 1 touchdown. Chris Godwin Jr. had 5 receptions for 30 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. We believe the Bus will win this game as the Dolphins are playing a backup QB, the Bucs have everyone healthy, and are fighting the Panthers for a division title.
Panthers (8-7-0): Panthers edged out Buccaneers 23-20. They built a 13-point first half lead and held on. QB Bryce Young threw for 191 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Rico Dowdle led the team with 9 carries for 29 yards. RB Chuba Hubbard added 6 carries for 27 yards. The backfield was split between Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. WR Tetairoa McMillan was the top target with 6 receptions for 73 yards on 10 targets and 1 touchdown. Rico Dowdle had 4 receptions for 14 yards. In Week 17, they host the Seahawks. This game could be closer than expected. The Panthers have only won games as underdogs this season. They have continued to surprise everyone and beating the Rams and the Bucs were two big wins. If they beat the Rams we know they can compete with the Seahawks. It would be a surprise if they beat the Seahawks at +7 favorites but could cover with how many points they’ve been scoring. Rico Dowdle is incentivized to score a touchdown that will earn his $250k. He also needs 70+ yards in his last 2 weeks to get $1 million. We assume he will be running his tail off. over 46.5 rushing yards is -114 at Fanduel, over 12.5 rush attempts is -115 at Tooniebet or any kambi provider, and anytime touchdown is +185 Caesar's. All 3 are blog picks.
JAX 34 @ DEN 20
Jaguars (11-4-0): Jaguars dominated Broncos 34-20. QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 279 yards with 3 touchdowns. RB Travis Etienne Jr. led the team with 16 carries for 50 yards. WR Parker Washington was the top target with 6 receptions for 145 yards on 10 targets and 1 touchdown. Brenton Strange had 5 receptions for 39 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Indianapolis to play the Colts. The Jaguars are another hot team that continue to impress everyone. They are -6 against the Colts and should have no problem covering if they play the same way.
Broncos (12-3-0): Broncos fell short in a 14-point loss to Jaguars. QB Bo Nix threw for 352 yards with 1 touchdown but threw 1 interception. RB RJ Harvey led the team with 7 carries for 50 yards and 1 touchdown. RB Jaleel McLaughlin added 5 carries for 37 yards. The backfield was split between RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin. WR Courtland Sutton was the top target with 6 receptions for 86 yards on 12 targets and 1 touchdown. Pat Bryant had 5 receptions for 42 yards. In Week 17, they travel to play the Chiefs. The Broncos are -13.5 favorites with Mahomes and Minshew out at QB. This line should cover but we don’t recommend double digit favorites ever. The Broncos will be motivated to put a beat down on the Chiefs for all of the years of them losing to them, but also because they are looking to bounce back from a big loss last week.
ATL 26 @ ARI 19
Falcons (6-9-0): Falcons defeated Cardinals 26-19. They built a 16-point first half lead and held on. QB Kirk Cousins threw for 197 yards with 2 touchdowns but threw 1 interception. RB Tyler Allgeier led the team with 16 carries for 79 yards. RB Bijan Robinson added 16 carries for 76 yards. The backfield was split between Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson and the Falcons are usually the team that comes out on top when both of these guys are heavily involved. RB Bijan Robinson was the top target with 7 receptions for 92 yards on 11 targets and 1 touchdown. WR Kyle Pitts Sr. had 7 receptions for 57 yards. In Week 17, they host the Rams and are +8 underdogs. Expect the Rams to beat them and cover, but also like the over 49.5 as the Falcons can score.
Cardinals (3-12-0): Cardinals came up short in a 7-point defeat against Falcons. QB Jacoby Brissett threw for 203 yards with 1 touchdown but threw 1 interception. RB Michael Carter led the team with 11 carries for 65 yards. RB Corey Kiner added 6 carries for 32 yards. WR Elijah Higgins was the top target with 7 receptions for 91 yards on 8 targets. Trey McBride had 4 receptions for 27 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. We have McBride over rec yards as a newsletter pick as the Bengals struggle against the TE position.
PIT 29 @ DET 24
Steelers (9-6-0): Steelers edged out Lions 29-24. QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 266 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Jaylen Warren led the team with 14 carries for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns. RB Kenneth Gainwell added 9 carries for 50 yards. WR Kenneth Gainwell was the top target with 5 receptions for 78 yards on 7 targets and 1 touchdown. Adam Thielen had 4 receptions for 49 yards. This game was a huge upset that ended the Lions playoffs hopes. In Week 17, they travel to Cleveland to play the Browns. As -3 favorites this line seems low which indicates a trap. Buy down to -2.5 or take the Steelers ML.
Lions (8-7-0): Lions fell just short against Steelers. QB Jared Goff threw for 364 yards with 3 touchdowns. Montgomery led the team with 4 carries for 14 yards while RB Jahmyr Gibbs had 7 carries for 2 yards. It was a terrible rushing duo performance. Jahmyr Gibbs was the top target with 10 receptions for 66 yards on 13 targets and had 1 touchdown. Jameson Williams had 5 receptions for 70 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Minnesota to play the Vikings. We expect the Lions to win and cover but are not high on this team now that they are out of the playoffs. At the end of last game, Goff threw the ball to St. Brown who committed offensive pass interference by pushing off the defender. He created room for himself to catch the ball and before going down he handed it off to Goff who “scored” a touchdown. The play was deemed not a scoring play as there was pass interference and then St. Brown had stopped forward progress before handing the ball off. Since the clock was at 0:00 when the interference was called, the game was over at that point. That clears up that final play of the game.
LV 21 @ HOU 23
Raiders (2-13-0): Raiders fell just short against Texans. They made a second-half push, scoring 14 points after the break. QB Geno Smith threw for 201 yards with 2 touchdowns but threw 1 interception. RB Ashton Jeanty led the team with 24 carries for 128 yards and 1 touchdown. WR Brock Bowers was the top target with 5 receptions for 33 yards on 5 targets and 1 touchdown. Tre Tucker had 4 receptions for 43 yards. In Week 17, they host the Giants and as we discussed they have the edge in this game. The Giants are getting the betting tickets but the Raiders are getting a large amount of money % indicating a big edge for those that follow the money. The Raiders offense has been a struggle all year but when they put it together they stood a chance against one of the best units.
Updated: No longer a strong play on the Raiders due to roster changes and the line movement caused by those changes.
Texans (10-5-0): Texans edged out Raiders 23-21. They built a 13-point first half lead and held on. QB C.J. Stroud threw for 187 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Woody Marks was injured and was replaced by Jawhar Jordan who led the team with 15 carries for 53 yards. RB Nick Chubb added 6 carries for 33 yards. WR Dalton Schultz was the top target with 5 receptions for 35 yards on 5 targets and 1 touchdown. Jawhar Jordan had 5 receptions for 17 yards. In Week 17, they travel to Los Angeles to play the Chargers. This is a tight matchup but the Chargers should win the game. We do like the under and have this as a newsletter pick.
NE 28 @ BAL 24
Patriots (12-3-0): Patriots edged out Ravens 28-24. QB Drake Maye threw for 380 yards with 2 touchdowns but threw 1 interception. RB Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 8 carries for 51 yards and 1 touchdown. RB TreVeyon Henderson only had 5 carries for 3 yards as he was injured at the beginning of the game and didn’t return. WR Stefon Diggs was the top target with 9 receptions for 138 yards on 10 targets. WR Mack Hollins had 7 receptions for 69 yards. In Week 17, they travel to New Jersey to play the Jets. Expect a blowout for the Patriots. Also consider WR Diggs to get the ball who has a lot of incentives to cash in on. 4 more receptions for $500k and 131 more yards for $500k.
Ravens (7-8-0): Ravens fell just short against Patriots. QB Lamar Jackson threw for 101 yards before getting injured and being replaced by backup Huntley. RB Derrick Henry led the team with 18 carries for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns, but was benched in the 4th quarter for no apparent reason. RB Keaton Mitchell added 9 carries for 13 yards. WR Zay Flowers was the top target with 7 receptions for 84 yards on 7 targets. DeAndre Hopkins had 4 receptions for 41 yards. The Ravens have a coaching problem and it was on full display in this matchup. Why bench one of the best backs in the league when they were having a great game and gave the team the best chance to win? Week 17, they travel to Green Bay to play the Packers. We like the Packers to cover because the Ravens are playing with no motivation to win. QB Lamar Jackson is out and backup QB Tyler Huntley will get the start.
SF 48 @ IND 27
49ers (11-4-0): 49ers dominated Colts 48-27. QB Brock Purdy threw for 295 yards with 5 touchdowns but threw 1 interception. RB Christian McCaffrey led the team with 21 carries for 117 yards. RB Brian Robinson Jr. added 5 carries for 20 yards. Christian McCaffrey clearly has the RB1 role, with Brian Robinson Jr. serving as the backup. WR George Kittle was the top target with 7 receptions for 115 yards on 8 targets and 1 touchdown. Christian McCaffrey had 6 receptions for 29 yards. In Week 17, they host the Bears. The 49ers are -3 favorites at home. I can see this being a high scoring game so lean is to over 50 points.
Colts (8-7-0): Colts fell short in a 21-point loss to 49ers. QB Philip Rivers threw for 277 yards with 2 touchdowns but threw 1 interception. RB Jonathan Taylor led the team with 16 carries for 46 yards and 1 touchdown. WR Josh Downs was the top target with 5 receptions for 65 yards on 9 targets. Alec Pierce had 4 receptions for 86 yards. In Week 17, they host the Jaguars who are hot coming off a big win against the Broncos. We expect the Jags to continue their hot streak.
Week 16 Newsletter Picks
Saturday, December 27th
4:30PM - Texans @ Chargers
u40 total points scored (-114, any Kambi provider).
Saturday’s matchup is defined by defensive strengths on both sides rather than offensive upside. Houston enters on a seven-game winning streak but leans heavily on a defense ranked second in DVOA. Their pass rush presents a significant challenge for a Chargers offensive line missing two All-Pro-caliber tackles, limiting both pass protection and run efficiency. On the other side, Houston’s offense ranks 21st in DVOA, 25th in yards per play, and 19th in points per game, reflecting inconsistency driven by offensive line issues and missed time from C.J. Stroud. The Chargers’ defense has steadily improved to ninth in DVOA and is peaking late in the season, allowing just 10 points to Kansas City, 19 to Philadelphia, and 17 to Dallas in recent weeks. With both offenses facing top-10 defenses that excel at generating pressure and restricting efficiency, sustained scoring should be difficult, making this matchup profile strongly under-leaning.
Sunday, December 28th
1:00PM - Cardinals @ Bengals
Trey McBride o69.5 Rec Yards (-111, Betano). McBride has had a historic year at his position, and he is now coming off one of his worst games of the year last week. He will look to rectify this by exploiting the league-worst defense against the tight end: The Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have surrendered the most targets, touchdowns, yards and receptions to the tight end, and McBride is playing like the best tight end in the league. The Bengals have given up over 300 yards more than the second-worst defense against the tight end. Expect the Cardinals to move the ball through McBride throughout a likely shootout.
4:25PM - Eagles @ Bills
Dawson Knox o18.5 Rec Yards (+100, Caesars).
Dawson Knox may be the TE2 on the team, but he has cleared 18.5 receiving yards in 6/8 of his last games. Knox has also notably cleared 18.5 receiving yards in 3/3 of his last home games. Further, he will likely be a necessary piece of the offense against an Eagles team that will force a shootout in Buffalo, especially with few targets as proven as Knox on the field. The Eagles are the toughest matchup for TE and have allowed the fewest yards to the position in 2025, but that said, the Bills feature their tight ends consistently and defensive attention is primarily on TE1 Kincaid. Knox also has several contract incentives on the line: Knox needs 1 reception for $100k, 1 touchdown for $100k, and 37 receiving yards for $100k. All these present an opportunity for Knox to be a sneaky value at +100 odds.
Blog bets and leans are found within the recaps.
Merry Christmas & Happy New Year from The Side Hustle Sports Team!
