recap

Week 17 Recap & Week 18 Insights

Weekly Recap| Insights
December 31, 2025•36 min read

Week 16 Newsletter Picks 3-0 ✅

u40 total points scored (-114, any Kambi provider). ✅

Analysis: Saturday’s matchup is defined by defensive strengths on both sides rather than offensive upside. Houston enters on a seven-game winning streak but leans heavily on a defense ranked second in DVOA. Their pass rush presents a significant challenge for a Chargers offensive line missing two All-Pro-caliber tackles, limiting both pass protection and run efficiency. On the other side, Houston’s offense ranks 21st in DVOA, 25th in yards per play, and 19th in points per game, reflecting inconsistency driven by offensive line issues and missed time from C.J. Stroud. The Chargers’ defense has steadily improved to ninth in DVOA and is peaking late in the season, allowing just 10 points to Kansas City, 19 to Philadelphia, and 17 to Dallas in recent weeks. With both offenses facing top-10 defenses that excel at generating pressure and restricting efficiency, sustained scoring should be difficult, making this matchup profile strongly under-leaning.

Review: It was an uncharacteristic start with the Texans scoring 2 touchdowns in the first quarter, but the scoring eased off after that. The Texans only kicked field goals from there out and although the Chargers scored 2 touchdowns, a failed PAT gave them no chance to force overtime at the end of the game. As anticipated the score went below 40 points, landing on 36. The Texans won 20-16.

Trey McBride o69.5 Rec Yards (-111, Betano). ✅

Analysis: McBride has had a historic year at his position, and he is now coming off one of his worst games of the year last week. He will look to rectify this by exploiting the league-worst defense against the tight end: The Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have surrendered the most targets, touchdowns, yards and receptions to the tight end, and McBride is playing like the best tight end in the league. The Bengals have given up over 300 yards more than the second-worst defense against the tight end. Expect the Cardinals to move the ball through McBride throughout a likely shootout.

Review: McBride was the most targeted Cardinal with 10 receptions. He tallied 76 receiving yards and covered the over 69.5 with an 18-yard touchdown pass early in the 4th quarter. This bet fit the game script perfectly as the betting lines projected the Bengals to win and inferred that the Cardinals would be forced to throw the ball.

Dawson Knox o18.5 Rec Yards (+100, Caesars). ✅

Analysis: Dawson Knox may be the TE2 on the team, but he has cleared 18.5 receiving yards in 6/8 of his last games. Knox has also notably cleared 18.5 receiving yards in 3/3 of his last home games. Further, he will likely be a necessary piece of the offense against an Eagles team that will force a shootout in Buffalo, especially with few targets as proven as Knox on the field. The Eagles are the toughest matchup for TE and have allowed the fewest yards to the position in 2025, but that said, the Bills feature their tight ends consistently and defensive attention is primarily on TE1 Kincaid. Knox also has several contract incentives on the line: Knox needs 1 reception for $100k, 1 touchdown for $100k, and 37 receiving yards for $100k. All these present an opportunity for Knox to be a sneaky value at +100 odds.

Review: TE Dawson Know had 5 receptions for 30 yards, covering the over 18.5 prop. He got a 100k incentive for the first catch and only needs 7 more yards next week to secure another incentive. He was inches short of getting a touchdown, but will be a go to redzone target next week if the Bills decide to play their backups.

Trends

Christmas Day once again showed why blindly following public narratives is dangerous, with every underdog covering the spread—mirroring what we saw on Thanksgiving. This season, sports media has consistently pushed data and trends that suggest past angles are the only way to bet games, only for games to unfold in the exact opposite way. That’s why independent analysis and accountability for your own picks matter more than ever. Media personalities and former players aren’t professional bettors; they’re paid to talk, often guided toward certain narratives and stats that influence public betting behavior. If you’re easily swayed by what you hear on TV, it’s a reminder to step back, do your own research, and protect your hard-earned money.

Moneyline:

- Favorites won: 10 of 16 (62%)

- Underdogs won: 6 of 16 (38%)

- 10 of 16 (62%) winning teams led time of possession.

Spread:

- Favorites covered: 7 of 16 (44%)

- Underdogs covered: 9 of 16 (56%)

- Average winning margin: 11.0 points

- Most common winning margin: 7 points

Total:

- Games went Over: 7 of 16 (44%)

- Games went Under: 9 of 16 (56%)

- Average total: 44.8 points

- Most common total: 51 points

- Average first half total: 23.9 points

- 10 of 16 (62%) finished under 24.5 points in the first half.

Playoff Picture

Clinched in AFC:

Denver Broncos

New England Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars

Buffalo Bills

Los Angeles Chargers

Houston Texans

The winner of the Steelers vs. Ravens gets the last spot in the AFC.

Clinched in NFC:

Seattle Seahawks

Chicago Bears

Philadelphia Eagles

San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles Rams

Green Bay Packers

The winner of the Panthers vs. Buccaneers gets the last spot in the NFC.

Last Week’s Recaps Highlights

  • The Seahawks are -7 favorites and the total is set at 42.5, I would tease the Seahawks spread down and the over down. (Seahawks -1 / over 35.5)

  • WR Deebo Samuel is incentivized by his contract to get 2 more receptions for $450k and 61 rec yards for another $250k. His line is set at o43.5 -114 Fanduel so taking the over against the Cowboys is a strong bet.

  • In Week 17, the Cowboys travel to Washington to play the Commanders. They are -6.5 to -7 favorites and would be the side I’d lean to take.

  • The Saints ML -143 or -2.5 -110 is the side to be on. QB Tyler Shough has been playing lights out and if he wants to be considered for Rookie of the Year then the only way he makes a case for himself is by winning out. Beating the 1st overall pick will look good on his resume.

  • Easy to see the Bengals cover with how they played last week.

  • The Pats beat the Jets by 13 earlier this season, but the Pats are playing better football now than they were and the Jets are significantly worse with Cooks at QB. Can’t recommend betting a -13.5 fav but buying them down in a teaser is a smart play.

  • The Raiders are no longer a play. They have put TE Brock Bowers on IR and Max Crosby has been told to sit. This is a clear indication they are tanking this game as the loser of this game will get the first overall pick. Early indicators made this a good bet, but due to the changes during the week the Raiders are now +2.5 and no longer a blog pick.

  • Rico Dowdle needs 70+ yards in his last 2 weeks to get $1 million. We assume he will be running his tail off. Over 46.5 rushing yards is -114 at Fanduel.

  • We have McBride over rec yards as a newsletter pick as the Bengals struggle against the TE position.

  • Consider WR Diggs to get the ball who has a lot of incentives to cash in on. 4 more receptions for $500k.

  • The 49ers are -3 favorites at home. I can see this being a high scoring game so lean is to over 50 points.

Week 17 Recaps

DAL 30 @ WSH 23 (Divisional)

Cowboys (7-8-1): Cowboys defeated Commanders 30-23 with a solid performance in this divisional matchup. They built a 14-point first half lead and held on. They were perfect on fourth down, converting all 6 attempts. They were penalized 11 times for 89 yards. Their offensive line struggled, allowing 6 sacks, but they controlled the clock, holding the ball for 17 more minutes than the Commanders. QB Dak Prescott threw for 307 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Malik Davis led the team with 20 carries for 103 yards. RB Javonte Williams added 13 carries for 54 yards and scored 1 touchdown. Javonte Williams got the red zone touches, which is worth noting for touchdown props. WR CeeDee Lamb was the top target with 5 receptions for 46 yards on 10 targets. George Pickens had 4 receptions for 78 yards. In Week 18, they travel to play the Giants in a divisional matchup. The Cowboys are -4 favorites and the total is set at 51.5 points.

Commanders (4-12-0): Commanders came up short in a 7-point defeat against Cowboys. They were outgained by 152 yards, which proved costly. They struggled on third down, converting just 1 of 6 attempts (17%) compared to Cowboys' 40%. They were penalized 10 times for 71 yards, hurting their field position and drives. Their 3rd string QB Josh Johnson threw for 198 yards. RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the team with 11 carries for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. WR Terry McLaurin was the top target with 5 receptions for 63 yards on 7 targets. WR Deebo Samuel hit his over 43.5 prop that was value driven by his incentive. In Week 18, they travel to Philadelphia to play the Eagles in a divisional matchup. The Commanders are +7.5 point underdogs and the total is set at 41.5 points. There is a one-point middle that covers a key number. -6.5 on Fanduel and +7.5 on Bet105. If you have these two sportsbooks, this is a low risk, high reward bet.

DET 10 @ MIN 23 (Divisional)

Lions (8-8-0): Lions came up short in a 13-point defeat against Vikings in this divisional matchup. Their offensive line struggled, allowing 5 sacks. They controlled the clock, holding the ball for 5 more minutes than the Vikings, but that shows how ineffective they were on offense. QB Jared Goff threw for 197 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Jahmyr Gibbs led the team with 17 carries for 41 yards. RB David Montgomery added 10 carries for 25 yards. There is a strong correlation between Gibbs' performance and the Lions' success. When he performs they win games and when he doesn’t they lose games. This clearly points out that they are too dependent on one player and need to find other ways to get other players involved. Montgomery is being overshadowed by Gibbs, but the team had more success last season when they split the backfield. It’s become clear that Montgomery has become frustrated with the organization and might want to be traded. Montgomery came from the Bears and might want to go back because of the connection with Ben Johnson who knows his worth. The Lion’s biggest loss was former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson who is cooking it up as a head coach in Chicago with a team who was awful last season. Ironically the Lions travel to Chicago to play the Bears in a divisional matchup for their last game of the season. The Lions are +2.5 underdogs and the total is set at 50.5 points. The Lions cannot be trusted, but the Bears might elect to sit starters.

Vikings (8-8-0): Vikings defeated Lions 23-10 in a divisional matchup. Despite being outgained by 70 yards, they found a way to win. Their offensive line struggled, allowing 7 sacks. They struggled to sustain drives, holding the ball for 5 fewer minutes. QB Max Brosmer threw for 51 yards. RB Aaron Jones Sr. led the Vikings with 18 carries for 53 yards and 1 touchdown. RB Ty Chandler added 7 carries for 24 yards. Chandler is the RB3, but with Mason out was a RB2 in this game. WR Justin Jefferson was the top target with 4 receptions for 30 yards on 5 targets. Aaron Jones Sr. had 3 receptions for 10 yards. Scoring 23 points and only having 51 passing yards to beat the Lions is a wild stat, but once again showcases how bad the Lions have been this year. In Week 18, the Vikings host the Packers in a divisional matchup. The Vikings are -6.5 favorites and the total is set at 37.5 points. The reason for this line is due to the Packers sitting their starters. With no importance on this game, the Vikings will probably cover this spread to finish out the season on a high note.

DEN 20 @ KC 13 (Divisional)

Broncos (13-3-0): Broncos defeated Chiefs 20-13 with a subpar performance in this divisional matchup. They dominated the yardage battle, outgaining the Chiefs by 164 yards (303 to 139). They converted 11 of 18 third downs (61%), significantly better than Chiefs' 36%. They controlled the clock, holding the ball for 18 more minutes than the Chiefs. QB Bo Nix threw for 182 yards with 1 passing touchdown and had a 9 yard rush for a touchdown. RB RJ Harvey led the team with 14 carries for 43 yards, 5 receptions for 33 yards, and 1 touchdown. RB Jaleel McLaughlin added 7 carries for 40 yards. Courtland Sutton had 4 receptions for 40 yards. In Week 18, they host the Chargers in a divisional matchup. The Broncos opened at -7.5 favorites, but the Chargers have announced they will sit all of their starters so the line has now moved to -12.5 and the total is set at 37.5 points. I would lean to the +12.5 on the Chargers as backup QB Trey Lance is a solid quarterback and can get them in range to score. Some starters might be looking for incentives and then sit once they get them so this game isn’t completely one sided.

Chiefs (6-10-0): Chiefs came up short in a 7-point defeat against Broncos in this divisional matchup. QB Chris Oladokun threw for 66 yards with 1 passing touchdown. RB Kareem Hunt led the team with 7 carries for 38 yards. RB Isiah Pacheco added 9 carries for 32 yards. TE Travis Kelce was the top target with 5 receptions for 36 yards on 6 targets. JuJu Smith-Schuster had 3 receptions for 16 yards. Despite the Chiefs being +13.5 point underdogs, they put up a fight against the Broncos, showing their competitive spirit. In Week 18, they travel to Las Vegas to play the Raiders in a divisional matchup. The Chiefs are -5.5 favorites and the total is set at 36.5 points. The Raiders have made it clear they are tanking on purpose so the smart play is to take the Chiefs on the spread.

HOU 20 @ LAC 16

Texans (11-5-0): Texans edged out Chargers 20-16 in a close contest. They took a 11-point first half lead and maintained it. They kept their quarterback clean with zero sacks allowed, while their defense sacked Chargers' QB 5 times. They were more efficient, averaging 5.8 yards per play compared to the Chargers' 4.7. QB C.J. Stroud threw for 244 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Woody Marks led the team with 19 carries for 71 yards. RB Jawhar Jordan added 8 carries for 36 yards. WR Nico Collins was the top target with 3 receptions for 57 yards on 4 targets. Jaylin Noel had 3 receptions for 54 yards. In Week 18, they host the Colts in a divisional matchup. The Texans are -10.5 favorites and the total is set at 40.5 points. The Texans are facing a backup QB in his first NFL start so that is why they are double digit favorites. It is best to see if the Texans plan to start their best players before picking a side. Early lean is the under 40.5.

Chargers (11-5-0): Chargers fell just short against Texans. They made a second-half push, scoring 13 points after the break, but it was not enough. A failed extra point ultimately changed the game as they would have been more motivated to get into range at the end to kick a field goal to force overtime. They played a disciplined game with only 3 penalties, while Texans had 8. Their offensive line struggled, allowing 5 sacks. QB Justin Herbert threw for 236 yards with 1 touchdown. QB Justin Herbert led the team with 6 carries for 37 yards. RB Omarion Hampton added 14 carries for 29 yards, 8 receptions for 31 yards, and 1 touchdown. Quentin Johnston had 5 receptions for 98 yards. In Week 18, they travel to Denver to play the Broncos in a divisional matchup. The Chargers are +12.5 point underdogs, but we like the backup quarterback Trey Lance to cover the spread.

BAL 41 @ GB 24

Ravens (8-8-0): Ravens dominated Packers 41-24 in a convincing victory. They took a 13-point first half lead and maintained it. They converted 10 of 14 third downs (71%), significantly better than the Packers' 50%. They controlled the clock, holding the ball for 20 more minutes than the Packers. QB Tyler Huntley threw for 107 yards with 1 passing touchdown. RB Derrick Henry led the team with 36 carries for 216 yards and 4 touchdowns. A performance that confirms exactly what we were talking about in last week’s recap. If they play the best player on the team at this time of year when it’s cold and no one wants to tackle him then he will win the game for them on his own. RB Keaton Mitchell added 9 carries for 31 yards. WR Zay Flowers was the top target with 4 receptions for 30 yards on 5 targets and 1 touchdown. Mark Andrews had 4 receptions for 28 yards. In Week 18, they travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers in a divisional matchup. This game will decide who makes the last playoff spot in the AFC. The Ravens are -3.5 favorites and the total is set at 41.5 points. It is clear as day that the Ravens have been a better team with Huntley at QB. Lamar Jackson has been off all season and with Huntley getting the start and the Steelers being inconsistent all season, we lean to the Ravens ML. Not a fan of the -3.5 because it doesn’t cover the key number, buying down to -3 or taking the Ravens in a teaser is the best advice we can give.

Packers (9-6-1): Packers fell short in a lopsided loss to Ravens. QB Malik Willis threw for 288 yards with 1 touchdown. QB Malik Willis led the team with 9 carries for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. RB Josh Jacobs only had 4 carries for 3 yards. WR Christian Watson was the top target with 5 receptions for 113 yards on 6 targets and 1 touchdown. Jayden Reed had 4 receptions for 41 yards. In Week 18, they travel to Minnesota to play the Vikings in a divisional matchup. The Packers are +6.5 point underdogs because they are resting their starters.

ARI 14 @ CIN 37

Cardinals (3-13-0): Cardinals fell short in a lopsided loss to Bengals. They fell behind by 16 points in the first half and couldn't recover. They were outgained by 196 yards, which proved costly. They struggled on third down, converting just 3 of 13 attempts (23%) compared to Bengals 67%. Their offensive line struggled, allowing 4 sacks. They struggled to sustain drives, holding the ball for 21 fewer minutes. They averaged just 4.3 yards per play, well below Bengals 5.8. QB Jacoby Brissett threw for 212 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Michael Carter led the team with 7 carries for 29 yards. RB Emari Demercado added 5 carries for 11 yards showcasing the run game was poor. WR Trey McBride was the top target with 10 receptions for 76 yards on 13 targets and 1 touchdown. McBride cashed one of our newsletter picks of the week. Michael Wilson had 5 receptions for 89 yards and is emerging as the WR1 which can make him a good trade candidate in the off season with Harrison Jr. being their true WR1. In Week 18, they travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams in a divisional matchup. The Cardinals opened as +9.5 point underdogs, but the line has moved down to +7.5 after the Rams lost to the Falcons. We will wait to see if the Rams decide to sit or start players. They want to avoid injuries, but they clearly need the extra reps right now and this is a good opportunity to work out the kinks before the playoffs.

Bengals (6-10-0): Bengals dominated Cardinals 37-14 in a convincing victory. QB Joe Burrow threw for 305 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Chase Brown led the team with 22 carries for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. WR Ja'Marr Chase was the top target with 7 receptions for 60 yards on 9 targets and 2 touchdowns. Chase hadn’t scored since week 8 and made it clear in the media that scoring a touchdown was a top priority for him in this game. Tee Higgins had 4 receptions for 59 yards. In Week 18, they host the Browns in a divisional matchup. The Bengals are -7 favorites and the total is set at 44.5 points. We lean to the over in this oneness both teams are out of playoff contention and neither team should be considered about their defense. The only person who cares about getting a sack is Myles Garett who will do anything he can to sack Joe Burrow for the all-time record. Once he gets it then I think the defense will be more lax and it will open up the scoring.

PIT 6 @ CLE 13 (Divisional)

Steelers (9-7-0): Steelers came up short in a 7-point defeat against Browns in this divisional matchup. They were shut out in the second half after scoring 6 points earlier. They struggled on third down, converting just 3 of 15 attempts (20%) compared to Browns 36%. They failed on all 3 fourth-down attempts, missing key opportunities. QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 168 yards. RB Jaylen Warren led the team with 12 carries for 64 yards. RB Kenneth Gainwell added 7 carries for 26 yards. WR Jonnu Smith was the top target with 5 receptions for 18 yards on 5 targets. Pat Freiermuth had 3 receptions for 63 yards. In Week 18, they host the Ravens in a divisional matchup for all of the marbles. The Steelers are +3.5 point underdogs but will be without TE Darnell Washington. Washington isn’t someone who makes a huge impact on the stats sheet but with his size allows Rodgers to hold the ball for that extra second. He is a bigger loss than people think for this game.

Browns (4-12-0): Browns upset the Steelers 13-6 in a divisional matchup. QB Shedeur Sanders threw for 186 yards with 1 passing touchdown. The run game didn’t make a huge impact as RB Dylan Sampson led the team with 27 yards, RB Raheim Sanders had 21 yards, and QB Sanders had 20 yards. In the passing game, WR Jerry Jeudy was the top target with 5 receptions for 54 yards on 7 targets, but TE Harold Fannin Jr. had the only touchdown of the game. In Week 18, they travel to Cincinnati to play the Bengals in a divisional matchup. The Browns are +7 underdogs and we already covered the significance of Myles Garett getting a sack.

NO 34 @ TEN 26

Saints (6-10-0): Saints defeated Titans 34-26 with a big second half comeback. They were more efficient, averaging 8.1 yards per play compared to Titans 4.7. QB Tyler Shough threw for 333 yards with 2 touchdowns adding to his resume for offensive rookie of the year. RB Audric Estime led the team with 14 carries for 94 yards and 1 touchdown. WR Chris Olave was the top target with 8 receptions for 119 yards on 11 targets and 1 touchdown. Juwan Johnson had 4 receptions for 95 yards. It was a heavy pass game, with 320 passing yards compared to 103 rushing. In Week 18, they travel to Atlanta to play the Falcons in a divisional matchup. The Saints are +3.5 point underdogs and the total is set at 43.5 points. We didn’t think that we would be in a spot this season to recommend the Saints to win as many times as we have, but we have been riding the Shough wave. With the Falcons beating the Rams and Bills this season we have to give them some respect knowing that they are capable of competing with the best. The Falcons will not make the playoffs with a win here, but since they are favored we are taking Shough over 227.5 passing yards. This fits the script of the Saints being underdogs and Shough throwing the ball to stack up points for OPOY.

Titans (3-13-0): Titans came up short in a 8-point defeat against Saints. Their offensive line struggled, allowing 4 sacks. QB Cam Ward threw for 251 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Tony Pollard led the team with 18 carries for 85 yards. WR Chimere Dike was the top target with 4 receptions for 55 yards on 5 targets. Elic Ayomanor had 4 receptions for 37 yards. In Week 18, they travel to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars in a divisional matchup. The Titans are +12.5 point underdogs and the total is set at 47.5 points.

JAX 23 @ IND 17 (Divisional)

Jaguars (12-4-0): Jaguars edged out Colts 23-17 in a close contest in this divisional matchup. They dominated the yardage battle, outgaining the Colts by 166 yards (370 to 204). They were more efficient, averaging 5.4 yards per play compared to the Colts' 3.7. QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 263 yards. RB Travis Etienne Jr. led the team with 17 carries for 76 yards. WR Parker Washington was the top target with 8 receptions for 115 yards on 10 targets. Jakobi Meyers had 6 receptions for 39 yards. In Week 18, they host the Titans in a divisional matchup. The Jaguars are -12.5 favorites and are motivated to get this win as they will be the AFC South champions if the Texans lose.

Colts (8-8-0): Colts fell short against Jaguars in this divisional matchup. QB Philip Rivers threw for 147 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Jonathan Taylor led the team with 21 carries for 70 yards and 1 touchdown. WR Tyler Warren was the top target with 5 receptions for 43 yards on 5 targets. Mo Alie-Cox had 3 receptions for 20 yards. In Week 18, they travel to Houston to play the Texans in a divisional matchup. The Colts are +10.5 point underdogs as they will start Rookie Riley Leonard at QB. The days of Phillip Rivers starting are over. He will be the backup in case of an injury.

TB 17 @ MIA 20

Buccaneers (7-9-0): Buccaneers fell just short against Dolphins. QB Baker Mayfield threw for 346 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB Bucky Irving led the team with 9 carries for 19 yards. WR Jalen McMillan was the top target with 7 receptions for 114 yards on 9 targets. Chris Godwin Jr. had 7 receptions for 108 yards. It was a heavy pass game, with 327 passing yards compared to 53 rushing. In Week 18, they host the Panthers in a divisional matchup to determine who gets the last playoff berth in the NFC. The Buccaneers are -3 favorites and the total is set at 44.5 points. The Buccaneers have fallen off a cliff this season and haven’t covered the spread in 8-straight games. In addition to this crazy stat all of their players that have been injured throughout the season are back and healthy. The Panthers have played their best as underdogs this season and if the trend continues they should win this game. However, Panthers +3 is the side to be on.

Dolphins (7-9-0): Dolphins edged out Buccaneers 20-17 in a close contest. They took a 10-point first half lead and maintained it. Despite being outgained by 82 yards, they found a way to win. They were penalized 10 times for 77 yards, hurting their field position and drives. Rookie QB Quinn Ewers threw for 172 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB De'Von Achane led the team with 18 carries for 83 yards. RB Jaylen Wright added 5 carries for 56 yards. WR Greg Dulcich was the top target with 5 receptions for 58 yards on 6 targets and 1 touchdown. De'Von Achane had 3 receptions for 29 yards. In Week 18, they travel to New England to play the Patriots in a divisional matchup. The Dolphins are +11.5 point underdogs and the total is set at 45.5 points. The Patriots have been rolling over everyone most of the season including the Jets last week. Motivated to get the number one seed in the AFC, we expect the domination to continue.

NE 42 @ NYJ 10 (Divisional)

Patriots (13-3-0): Patriots dominated Jets 42-10 in a convincing victory in this divisional matchup. They built a 32-point first half lead and held on. They dominated the yardage battle, outgaining the Jets by 133 yards (440 to 307). They were more efficient, averaging 7.1 yards per play compared to the Jets 4.9. QB Drake Maye threw for 256 yards with 5 touchdowns. RB TreVeyon Henderson led the team with 19 carries for 82 yards. RB Rhamondre Stevenson added 8 carries for 47 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson got the red zone touches, which is worth noting for touchdown props. WR Stefon Diggs was the top target with 6 receptions for 101 yards on 6 targets and 1 touchdown. Diggs got one of his incentives last week with the help of Hollins and Boute out, but has more incentives this week to chase. In Week 18, they host the Dolphins in a divisional matchup. The Patriots are -11.5 favorites and are still in the hunt for the number one seed in the AFC with a win and a Broncos loss.

Jets (3-13-0): Jets fell short in a lopsided loss to Patriots in this divisional matchup. QB Brady Cook threw for 152 yards. RB Breece Hall led the team with 14 carries for 111 yards and 1 touchdown. RB Kene Nwangwu added 6 carries for 31 yards. WR Isaiah Williams was the top target with 4 receptions for 30 yards on 5 targets. John Metchie III had 3 receptions for 41 yards. In Week 18, they travel to Buffalo to play the Bills in a divisional matchup. The Jets are +7.5 point underdogs and the total is set at 39.5 points. Although Hall got injured during the last game he is expected to play. The Bills should win this game even with the backups starting.

SEA 27 @ CAR 10

Seahawks (13-3-0): Seahawks dominated Panthers 27-10 in a convincing victory. They dominated the yardage battle, outgaining the Panthers by 149 yards (288 to 139). They converted 9 of 16 third downs (56%), significantly better than Panthers 9%. They controlled the clock, holding the ball for 8 more minutes than the Panthers. They were more efficient, averaging 4.4 yards per play compared to Panthers 2.7. QB Sam Darnold threw for 147 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Zach Charbonnet led the team with 18 carries for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns. RB Kenneth Walker III added 15 carries for 51 yards. Charbonnet is the redzone guy. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn’t get in the endzone, but was the top target with 9 receptions for 72 yards on 12 targets. AJ Barner had 3 receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown. In Week 18, they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers in a divisional matchup. The Seahawks are -1.5 favorites and the total is set at 49.5 points. This game is accurately priced with Seattle as the favorites due to having the better defense. Offensively, the Seahawks have been strong this season but the defense has been amazing. This game also will determine who gets the number one seed and the division. Early lean is to the over 49.5.

Panthers (8-8-0): Panthers fell short in a lopsided loss to Seahawks. QB Bryce Young threw for 54 yards and threw 1 interception. RB Rico Dowdle led the team with 12 carries for 59 yards. Dowdle and Hubbard both had 3 targets, which was more than any receiver. Young throwing for 54 yards and the running backs being the most targeted players is concerning going into Tampa next week, but we know that there is a lot at stake in their next game. The Panthers play at their best when they are doubted the most and this is by far the best season we have seen out of Bryce Young. We lean +3 Panthers.

NYG 34 @ LV 10

Giants (3-13-0): Giants dominated Raiders in a 34-10 victory. They built a 14-point first half lead and didn’t take their foot off the gas. They dominated the yardage battle, outgaining the Raiders by 112 yards (343 to 231). They converted 6 of 13 third downs (46%), significantly better than Raiders' 23%. They were more efficient, averaging 5.4 yards per play compared to Raiders 4.3. QB Jaxson Dart threw for 207 yards and scored 2 rushing touchdowns. Dart made it clear that he cares more about a winning culture than getting the first overall pick. He also makes it clear that he’s the guy and he is there to stay so there is no need to waste the first pick on a quarterback. Second overall is good enough to give this team more depth. RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the team with 14 carries for 62 yards. RB Devin Singletary added 8 carries for 45 yards and scored 1 touchdown. WR Wan'Dale Robinson was the top target with 11 receptions for 113 yards on 14 targets. Devin Singletary had 4 receptions for 25 yards. In Week 18, they host the Cowboys in a divisional matchup. The Giants are +5.5 underdogs, but we love the over in this game. Both teams have nothing to play for but padding their stats. If Prescott and Dart are the starting QBs then the over is the play.

Raiders (2-14-0): Raiders fell short in a lopsided loss to Giants. The Raiders clearly didn’t try in this game and had their eyes set on the first overall pick in the draft. We have been saying this for weeks, but we know they’ve been tanking. QB Geno Smith threw for 176 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Ashton Jeanty led the team with 16 carries for 60 yards. WR Michael Mayer was the top target with 9 receptions for 89 yards on 10 targets. He benefited from Brock Bowers being out of the lineup. Tre Tucker had 5 receptions for 49 yards. In Week 18, they host the Chiefs in a divisional matchup. The Raiders are +5.5 point underdogs and will happily lose this game as well. I’d take the Chiefs in a teaser to get them at +2 just as a safety net.

PHI 13 @ BUF 12

Eagles (11-5-0): Eagles edged out Bills 13-12 in a close contest. They scored all 13 points in the first half and held on. Despite being outgained by 141 yards, they were lucky enough that Allen missed a wide open pass to Shakir for the win. The Eagles offense collapsed in the second half, but the defense held them together. QB Jalen Hurts threw for 110 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Saquon Barkley led the team with 19 carries for 68 yards. WR A.J. Brown was the top target with 5 receptions for 68 yards on 7 targets. TE Dallas Goedert only had 3 receptions for 8 yards but scored the first touchdown of the game. In Week 18, they host the Commanders in a divisional matchup. The Eagles are -8.5 favorites and the total is set at 42.5 points.

Bills (11-5-0): Bills lost at home to the Eagles. They made a 4th quarter push, scoring all 12 points in the last 5 minutes of the game. They outgained the Eagles by 141 yards but couldn't convert it into a win due to a miss throw from Allen to Shakir. Their offensive line struggled, allowing 5 sacks. They controlled the clock, holding the ball for 10 more minutes than the Eagles, but once again didn’t start scoring until the end of the game. QB Josh Allen threw for 262 yards. RB James Cook III led the team with 20 carries for 74 yards. RB Ty Johnson added 5 carries for 15 yards. WR Khalil Shakir was the top target with 6 receptions for 35 yards on 7 targets. TE Dawson Knox had 5 receptions for 30 yards which covered our over 18.5 prop. In Week 18, they host the Jets in a divisional matchup. The Bills are -7 favorites but are sitting their starters. QB Mitchell Trubisky will play instead of Josh Allen. The Bills need to rest Allen because he has been dealing with a few injuries. One of them includes his ankle which we have seen him constantly limping on the field. Allen’s health is a priority for a successful playoff run and the Jets are such a weak opponent that Trubisky can lead them to a victory for seeding purposes.

CHI 38 @ SF 42

Bears (11-5-0): The Bears fell just short against the 49ers. They struggled on third down, converting just 6 of 12 attempts (50%) compared to 49ers's 70%. They held the ball for 7 fewer minutes, but were efficient, scoring 38 points. QB Caleb Williams threw for 330 yards with 2 touchdowns. RB D'Andre Swift led the team with 9 carries for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns. RB Kyle Monangai added 8 carries for 38 yards. The backfield was split evenly between D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, which is very important when considering their props. I thought it was more clear that Swift would have the majority of snaps in this game, but Monongai was used early. WR Luther Burden III was the top target with 8 receptions for 138 yards on 9 targets and 1 touchdown. Colston Loveland had 6 receptions for 94 yards. It was a heavy pass game, with 330 passing yards compared to 110 rushing. In Week 18, they host the Lions in a divisional matchup. The Bears are -2.5 favorites and we expect them to come out motivated to win for NFC seeding. HC Ben Johnson will have a little extra motivation to beat his former team as they head into the playoffs. However, if this game becomes a blowout, expect the Bears to rest certain key players for the playoffs.

49ers (12-4-0): The 49ers edged out Bears 42-38 in a close contest. They took a 7-point first half lead and maintained it. They controlled the clock, holding the ball for 7 more minutes than the Bears. QB Brock Purdy threw for 303 yards with 3 touchdowns. RB Christian McCaffrey led the team with 23 carries for 140 yards and 1 touchdown. WR Jake Tonges was the top target with 7 receptions for 60 yards on 9 targets and 1 touchdown. Ricky Pearsall had 5 receptions for 85 yards. In Week 18, they host the Seahawks in a divisional matchup. The 49ers are +1.5 point underdogs and the total is set at 49.5 points. We lean to the over 49.5 in this matchup and for the Seahawks to win the game.

LAR 24 @ ATL 27

Rams (11-5-0): Rams got blown out in the first half and made an attempt at a comeback but failed to beat the Falcons. They scored 24 points after the break, but couldn’t get into field goal range at the end of the game to force overtime. QB Matthew Stafford threw for 269 yards with 2 touchdowns. There was a pre-game middle on his yards between over 264.5 and under 272.5. Although it is hard to estimate the game script and how many yards a quarterback will throw, these are low risk high reward betting opportunities that are worth taking in the long run. RB Kyren Williams led the team with 13 carries for 92 yards. RB Blake Corum added 6 carries for 18 yards. WR Colby Parkinson was the top target with 6 receptions for 53 yards on 7 targets. Puka Nacua had 5 receptions for 47 yards. Nacua is one of the best receivers in the league, but in a game that the Rams are favored by 7 points his line of 106.5 reviving yards was extremely high. Even when the game script flipped and lined up for him to cover his yards he still wasn’t able to. Now he did have two catches that were called back that would have gotten him close to this line, but from a pre-game standpoint you could have taken the under and then waited to take the over live. In Week 18, they host the Cardinals in a divisional matchup. The Rams are -9.5 favorites and the total is set at 47.5 points.

Falcons (7-9-0): The Falcons beat the Rams at +280 underdogs. They built a 21-point first half lead and held on. They kept their quarterback clean with zero sacks allowed, while their defense sacked Rams's QB 3 times. QB Kirk Cousins threw for 126 yards with 1 touchdown. RB Bijan Robinson led the team with 22 carries for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns. RB Tyler Allgeier added 10 carries for 23 yards. Bijan Robinson was the top target with 5 receptions for 34 yards on 8 targets. Although Drake London was back in the lineup he was invisible all night with only 1 reception. The offense went entirely through Robinson. TE Pitts was also rarely involved. The Falcons defense made plays all night and caught 3 interceptions, one of them for a pick six. Despite being eliminated from the playoffs, they have beaten the Bills and the Rams. With a few adjustments in the off season, it’s clear that they will be a team in the hunt next season. In Week 18, they host the Saints in a divisional matchup. The Falcons are -2.5 favorites and the total is set at 43.5 points. If the Falcons get a similar start they should be able to beat the Saints. The Saints are a strong second half team but an early blowout might be too much for them to come back from just like it was for the Rams. Saints QB Shough is highly motivated to get this win to win OROY, so we lean to the over 45.5.

Week 18 Newsletter Picks

Saturday, Jan 3rd

4:30PM - Panthers @ Buccaneers

  • Panthers +3 (-112, Pinnacle). The Bucs haven't covered the spread in the last 8 games, haven't performed with their best players in the line up, and Panthers have played their best when they've been underdogs.

8:00PM - Seahawks @ 49ers

  • Total Points o47.5 (-106, Pinnacle). This game decides the top seed in NFC. Both teams have been playing solid football, but one trend that's stayed true is high scoring games.

Sunday, Jan 4th

8:20PM - Ravens @ Steelers

  • Steelers +3.5 (-104, Pinnacle). It's easy to take the Ravens spread after Derrick Henry scored 4 touchdowns last week, but historically, the Steelers have owned the Ravens. It's Rodgers' last season and he is heavily incentivized to make the playoffs for bonuses, but more than that, he will also try to make what could be his last game special. With this, +3.5 is a safe play.

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