weeklyrecap

Week 18 Recap & Wild Card Insights

Weekly Recap| Insights
January 09, 2026•32 min read

As the NFL regular season wraps up, this edition covers everything from Week 18: our newsletter picks, key trends and stats, and a full recap of the slate—plus a few important takeaways that carried over from our Week 17 analysis. We’ll close with final thoughts on teams heading into the offseason (including draft position outlooks) and our early insights on the Wild Card matchups. It’s been a fast, chaotic season with plenty of surprises—but we learned a lot, made money along the way, and built an even stronger edge heading into next year.

Week 18 Newsletter Picks 2-1 ✅

  • Panthers +3 (-112, Pinnacle). ✅

Analysis: The Bucs haven't covered the spread in the last 8 games, haven't performed with their best players in the line up, and Panthers have played their best when they've been underdogs.

Review: The game lined up exactly how we predicted. The Panthers made a late comeback attempt that helped cover the spread. The Buccaneers increased their streak of not covering the spread to 9 straight games.

  • Seahawks vs. 49ers Total Points o47.5 (-106, Pinnacle). ❌

Analysis: This game decides the top seed in NFC. Both teams have been playing solid football, but one trend that's stayed true is high scoring games.

Review: The Seahawks defense was dominant and held the 49ers to 3 points. There were a lot of points taken off the board from going for it on 4th downs, but even if those field goals go through, the total was not close to going over.

  • Steelers +3.5 (-104, Pinnacle). ✅

Analysis: It's easy to take the Ravens spread after Derrick Henry scored 4 touchdowns last week, but historically, the Steelers have owned the Ravens. It's Rodgers' last season and he is heavily incentivized to make the playoffs for bonuses, but more than that, he will also try to make what could be his last game special. With this, +3.5 is a safe play.

Review: The Steelers won the game outright at home. Regardless of the missed field goal at the end of the game the spread was going to cover no matter what. The lines moved from +3.5 to +4.5 when news came out that Lamar Jackson was starting over Huntley. We recommended the +4.5 for those who didn’t take the bet already. (We lock bets in for underdogs right before the game because public bettors always take the favorite). We also recommended those who wanted more value to wait for +7.5 which was offered right after the Ravens scored the first touchdown. We even got the opportunity to take +10 live at -134 odds.

Trends

In Week 18, bettors naturally gravitate toward player incentives because team motivations are often unclear. The mistake is assuming every incentive is bettable. Many aren’t. For example, Dawson Knox needing seven receiving yards is an incentive, but there’s no market to bet that directly. This means you have to filter through incentives and then evaluate whether the available lines actually make sense or offer value.

To gain an edge, you must be ahead of the market—not reacting to it. That’s why we started targeting incentives in Week 17 instead of waiting for sportsbooks to adjust in Week 18. We played Deebo Samuel over 43.5 receiving yards when he needed 61 yards to unlock a major bonus; he finished with 68. We also took Dawson Knox over 18.5 receiving yards when he needed 37 for an incentive, and he finished with 30. In both cases, we beat the market by acting early.

In Week 18, those same incentives were widely known and fully priced in. Knox to score a touchdown cashed, but Samuel’s reception and yardage incentives were never close. The takeaway is simple: the value isn’t in reacting to incentive data—it’s about using it to find value in bets before everyone is betting on them. Filtering through these bets takes a lot of time and some incentives are unrealistic, which are not worth considering. The ones with value only hold value for a short amount of time because sportsbooks will adapt the lines and remove the edge. Preparation and timing matter more than the incentive itself.

A spot in Week 18 that there was true value was monitoring the NFL Awards section while the games were on. The odds between multiple players for offensive rookie of the year fluctuated all game. Tyler Shough went from +350 to +750 to +2200 within minutes despite him getting a touchdown in real time. A small bet on him was worth the value considering he was padding his stats and the lines were moving the wrong way.

Out of 16 games:

Moneyline

  • Favorites won: 11 of 16 (69%)

  • Underdogs won: 5 of 16 (31%)

  • 13 of 16 (81%) winning teams led time of possession.

Spread

  • Favorites covered: 6 of 16 (38%)

  • Underdogs covered: 9 of 16 (56%)

  • Pushes: 1 of 16 (6%)

  • Average margin: 11.9 points

  • Most common margin: 2 points

Total

  • Games went Over: 8 of 16 (50%)

  • Games went Under: 8 of 16 (50%)

  • Average total: 39.2 points

  • Most common total: 48 points

  • Average first half total: 20.5 points

  • 11 of 16 (69%) finished under 24.5 points in the first half.

Last Week’s Recaps Highlights

  • Dawson Knox was inches short of getting a touchdown, but will be a go to redzone target next week if the Bills decide to play their backups.

  • The Vikings are -6.5 favorites and the total is set at 37.5 points. The reason for this line is due to the Packers sitting their starters. With no importance on this game, the Vikings will probably cover this spread to finish out the season on a high note.

  • The Falcons will not make the playoffs with a win here, but since they are favored we are taking Shough over 227.5 passing yards. This fits the script of the Saints being underdogs and Shough throwing the ball to stack up points for OPOY.

  • The Jaguars are -12.5 favorites and are motivated to get this win as they will be the AFC South champions if the Texans lose.

  • The Buccaneers have fallen off a cliff this season and haven’t covered the spread in 8-straight games. In addition to this crazy stat all of their players that have been injured throughout the season are back and healthy. The Panthers have played their best as underdogs this season and if the trend continues they should win this game. However, Panthers +3 is the side to be on.

  • The Dolphins are +11.5 point underdogs and the total is set at 45.5 points. The Patriots have been rolling over everyone most of the season including the Jets last week. Motivated to get the number one seed in the AFC, we expect the domination to continue.

  • The Seahawks are -1.5 favorites and the total is set at 49.5 points. This game is accurately priced with Seattle as the favorites due to having the better defense. We lean for the Seahawks to win the game.

  • The Giants are +5.5 underdogs, but we love the over in this game. Both teams have nothing to play for but padding their stats. If Prescott and Dart are the starting QBs then the over is the play.

  • I’d take the Chiefs in a teaser to get them at +2 just as a safety net.

  • Allen’s health is a priority for a successful playoff run and the Jets are such a weak opponent that Trubisky can lead them to a victory for seeding purposes.

Week 18 Recaps

CAR 14 @ TB 16 (Divisional)

Panthers (8-9-0): The Panthers fell just short against the Buccaneers in this divisional matchup, and the biggest issue was sustaining drives. They converted just 1 of 8 third downs (12%) compared to Tampa Bay’s 53% and held the ball for 14 fewer minutes. QB Bryce Young threw for 266 yards with 2 touchdowns, but the run game never got going as Chuba Hubbard had 5 carries for 10 yards and Rico Dowdle added 7 carries for 10 yards. A lot of attention was on Dowdle’s incentives, as he needed 7 rushing yards for a $1 million bonus (which he got) and a touchdown for another $250k, but bettors chasing it with anytime TD props and parlays like 25+ rushing yards increased risk and neither leg hit, showing that even on incentive week, parlays don’t automatically create an edge. WR Jalen Coker was the top target with 6 receptions for 47 yards on 7 targets and scored a touchdown, while Tetairoa McMillan had 4 receptions for 85 yards, further establishing himself as the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Carolina’s late touchdown helped us cash our +3 newsletter pick, and despite not winning, the Falcons beating the Saints eliminated the Buccaneers from the playoffs and granted the Panthers the NFC South title. The Panthers host the Rams in the wild card round as +11 home underdogs with a total of 46.5, and it’s worth noting that on November 30th the Panthers beat the Rams 30-27 with a similar spread.

Buccaneers (8-9-0): The Buccaneers edged out the Panthers 16-14 in a close divisional game behind a balanced approach, but the win wasn’t enough to keep their season alive. QB Baker Mayfield threw for 203 yards with 1 touchdown, while Bucky Irving led the ground game with 26 carries for 85 yards and Rachaad White added 7 carries for 23 yards. TE Cade Otton was the top target with 7 receptions for 94 yards on 9 targets and a touchdown. Despite winning, the three-way tie scenario meant the Panthers advanced to the wild card round and the Buccaneers’ season ends here. We don’t expect a major overhaul this offseason since they have key pieces in place, but they’ll look to improve their roster with the 15th overall pick in the draft.

SEA 13 @ SF 3 (Divisional)

Seahawks (14-3-0): The Seahawks defeated the 49ers 13-3 with a controlled, dominant performance in this divisional matchup. They outgained San Francisco 361 to 173, converted 6 of 13 third downs (46%) compared to the 49ers’ 22%, and held the ball for 15 more minutes, showing clear efficiency on both sides of the ball. QB Sam Darnold threw for 198 yards, cashing in on a $500k incentive, while Kenneth Walker III led the backfield with 16 carries for 97 yards and Zach Charbonnet added 17 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown. Charbonnet continues to profile as the red zone back, which matters for anytime touchdown markets. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the top target with 6 receptions for 84 yards on 8 targets and remains in the Offensive Player of the Year conversation alongside Rams WR Puka Nacua. With the win, the Seahawks secured the 1st seed in the NFC, earned a first-round bye, and will host in the divisional round.

49ers (12-5-0): The 49ers scored 3 points in the first half and were shut out after the break, as the Seahawks prevented them from generating any consistent offense. QB Brock Purdy threw for 127 yards, Christian McCaffrey led the team on the ground with 8 carries for 23 yards, and he was also the top target with 6 receptions for 34 yards on 7 targets. TE George Kittle had 5 receptions for 29 yards, but the entire unit struggled to create plays or sustain drives. The 49ers now travel to Philadelphia for the wild card round as +4.5 road underdogs with a total of 44.5. Both teams have playoff experience, and while the Eagles have recent Super Bowl runs, they’re winning more with defense this season, so we lean toward the 49ers +4.5 given the key number and expectation of a more complete performance.

NO 17 @ ATL 19 (Divisional)

Saints (6-11-0): The Saints outgained the Falcons by 132 yards but couldn’t convert it into a win, despite going 3-for-3 on fourth down. QB Tyler Shough threw for 259 yards and added both a rushing and passing touchdown, while Audric Estime led the run game with 21 carries for 63 yards. WR Dante Pettis was the top target with 5 receptions for 60 yards on 5 targets, and the absence of WR Chris Olave contributed to the Saints struggling to finish drives. Even though the season is over, the Saints may have found their quarterback, as Shough didn’t begin playing until Week 9 and has built a case for Offensive Rookie of the Year, currently sitting 3rd at +2000 on FanDuel. After grabbing him at +2200, we can cash out now for a small profit. The Saints will look to add a game changer this offseason with the 9th overall pick in the draft.

Falcons (8-9-0): The Falcons edged out the Saints 19-17, but it wasn’t a clean performance offensively. QB Kirk Cousins threw for 180 yards and a touchdown, while Bijan Robinson struggled with 15 carries for 33 yards and Tyler Allgeier added 7 carries for 16 yards. Kyle Pitts Sr. led the passing game with 6 receptions for 58 yards on 9 targets, and Drake London had 4 receptions for 78 yards. Despite finishing 8-9, Atlanta’s season is over and their 13th overall pick goes to the LA Rams. The Falcons also fired head coach Raheem Morris, showing they are making immediate changes heading into the offseason.

CLE 20 @ CIN 18 (Divisional)

Browns (5-12-0): The Browns edged out the Bengals 20-18 despite being outgained by 164 yards and holding the ball for 11 fewer minutes, winning primarily through defensive scoring. Devin Bush had a 97-yard pick-six and Sam Webb returned a fumble for a 47-yard touchdown, swinging the game on high-impact plays. QB Shedeur Sanders threw for 111 yards, Dylan Sampson led the backfield with 10 carries for 32 yards, and Raheim Sanders added 5 carries for 26 yards. WR Malachi Corley was the top target with 2 receptions for 20 yards on 2 targets. Even with the record, there were positives, including Myles Garrett breaking the single-season sack record with 23, and Cleveland now holds the 6th overall pick. The Browns fired head coach Steven Stefanski, and while Sanders fell to the 5th round due to ego concerns, he handled himself well publicly this season and earned respect, setting up a real opportunity to compete for the starting job next year. There has been speculation about Watson returning to start next season, but that feels unlikely.

Bengals (6-11-0): The Bengals fell just short against the Browns in a frustrating loss that summarized their season, as they outgained Cleveland by 164 yards but couldn’t convert it into a win. QB Joe Burrow threw for 236 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, Chase Brown had 13 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown, and Samaje Perine added 8 carries for 42 yards. Ja’Marr Chase led the team with 8 receptions for 96 yards on 10 targets and scored a touchdown, while Tee Higgins finished with 6 receptions for 67 yards. Cincinnati’s season is over, but they have the 10th overall pick and should be a playoff-caliber team next season if Burrow is healthy. Burrow missed time this year, which played a major role in them falling out of contention, and he also made comments about not wanting to be in Cincinnati if it isn’t fun, though a trade still feels unlikely given the team locked down Chase and Higgins last season.

GB 3 @ MIN 16 (Divisional)

Packers (9-7-1): The Packers came up short in a 13-point loss to the Vikings in a game where the outcome was largely expected due to rest and lineup decisions. They were down 16-0 before kicking a field goal, and some bettors suspected it was done to cover +13.5, but realistically no coach wants a zero on the board if they can take points. Third-string QB Clayton Tune threw for 34 yards, Chris Brooks led the run game with 13 carries for 61 yards, and Emanuel Wilson added 18 carries for 44 yards. WR Jakobie Keeney-James was the top target with 2 receptions for 15 yards on 2 targets. We expected Green Bay to sit players with the playoffs ahead, so the result was priced into the pregame line. They travel to Chicago to play the Bears in the wild card round as -1.5 favorites with a total of 45.5, but injuries have changed the ceiling of this team after Micah Parsons tore his ACL in Week 15, alongside issues this year for Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Tyler Kraft, and Christian Watson.

Vikings (9-8-0): The Vikings defeated the Packers 16-3 and controlled the game from start to finish, outgaining Green Bay 363 to 121 and averaging 5.7 yards per play compared to the Packers’ 2.4. J.J. McCarthy threw for 182 yards, Jordan Mason led the backfield with 14 carries for 94 yards, and Ty Chandler added 10 carries for 23 yards. Justin Jefferson was the top target with 8 receptions for 101 yards on 11 targets, extending his streak of 1,000 receiving yards to six straight seasons and joining Randy Moss and Mike Evans with that accomplishment. The streak is even more impressive given the Vikings’ QB situation and Jefferson’s inconsistent target volume. The Vikings moved on from Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones in the offseason to commit to McCarthy, but injuries made it a rollercoaster year and ultimately cost them a playoff spot. Minnesota will pick 18th overall in the draft.

DAL 17 @ NYG 34 (Divisional)

Cowboys (7-9-1): The Cowboys fell short in a lopsided 34-17 loss to the Giants and struggled to stay on schedule offensively. They converted just 2 of 8 third downs (25%) compared to the Giants’ 57%, and while they allowed zero sacks on offense, their defense did manage 4 sacks of Jaxson Dart. Dak Prescott started the game, but with the blowout, Joe Milton III finished and threw for 73 yards. Backup RB Jaydon Blue got the start and led the team with 16 carries for 64 yards and a rushing touchdown, while Phil Mafah added 5 carries for 18 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Flournoy was the top target with 5 receptions for 68 yards on 7 targets, and although key starters like Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson played, they weren’t heavily involved. The season is over, but it was a step forward from last year, with Prescott in the Comeback Player of the Year conversation. Trading Micah Parsons was shocking, but it created cap flexibility to acquire George Pickens and Quinnen Williams, and Jerry Jones has said it was the right deal despite the difficulty of moving on. Dallas holds the 12th overall pick, and if they improve defensively, they can be back in the playoffs next season.

Giants (4-13-0): The Giants dominated the Cowboys 34-17 and finished the season with real optimism about their young core. Jaxson Dart threw for 230 yards and 2 passing touchdowns, Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the run game with 18 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown, and Devin Singletary added 9 carries for 26 yards and a touchdown. Gunner Olszewski was the top target with 8 receptions for 102 yards on 9 targets, and Tracy added 8 receptions for 56 yards, showing his versatility. Despite the record, the Giants appear to have found their quarterback in Dart, and they also have depth in the backfield with Tracy and Singletary alongside Cam Skattebo. The team opened the season with Russell Wilson, but quickly turned to Dart, who showed signs of being a long-term answer. With Malik Nabers missing much of the year, the offense should look different when healthy next season, and with the 5th overall pick, New York has a chance to add another cornerstone piece.

TEN 7 @ JAX 41 (Divisional)

Titans (3-14-0): The Titans were blown out 41-7 in a result that matched the tone of their season, scoring once early and then getting shut out in the second half. Cam Ward scored a rushing touchdown but left the game injured, forcing Brandon Allen to finish, and Allen threw for 72 yards without producing points. Tony Pollard led the backfield with 14 carries for 48 yards, falling short of the 66 yards he needed to secure a $250k incentive. Tennessee’s season was a disaster overall, but this was still a development year for Ward, who has potential and will need more help around him. The Titans hold the 4th overall pick in the draft.

Jaguars (13-4-0): The Jaguars dominated the Titans 41-7 and continued their surge to close the regular season, building a 24-point halftime lead and controlling the game throughout. They outgained Tennessee 319 to 194, converted 4 of 9 third downs (44%) compared to the Titans’ 29%, and averaged 5.5 yards per play to Tennessee’s 3.7. Trevor Lawrence threw for 255 yards and 3 passing touchdowns, Travis Etienne Jr. led the rushing with 14 carries for 32 yards, and Bhayshul Tuten added 5 carries for 23 yards and a touchdown, with Tuten getting red-zone touches that matter for TD props. TE Brenton Strange led the pass game with 6 receptions for 52 yards on 6 targets and a touchdown, and Parker Washington had 5 receptions for 87 yards. Jacksonville hosts the Bills in the wild card round as +1.5 underdogs with a total of 51.5, and while public action is backing Josh Allen, the Jaguars have been stronger on both sides of the ball lately. We expect a shootout, and Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns is a prop we love in this spot given the total and his recent multi-touchdown production.

IND 30 @ HOU 38 (Divisional)

Colts (8-9-0): The Colts came up short in a 38-30 loss, but the biggest takeaway was rookie Riley Leonard making his first NFL start and looking the part. Leonard threw for 270 yards with 2 passing touchdowns and added a rushing touchdown, doing it against a Texans team that played starters in the first half, which naturally raises the question of whether he should have been starting earlier. Indianapolis started 8-2 through the first 10 weeks, then collapsed after the bye and lost seven straight. Daniel Jones revived his career after leaving the Giants, signing with the Vikings, and landing in Indianapolis, where his style fit well alongside Jonathan Taylor and rookie TE Tyler Warren, but Jones suffered a season-ending injury. The Colts kept things interesting by bringing back Phillip Rivers out of retirement for three starts at age 45, and while they didn’t win those games, he played better than expected and created one of the season’s most memorable storylines. The Colts’ 16th overall draft pick goes to the Jets from the Sauce Gardner trade.

Texans (12-5-0): The Texans finished the regular season with a 38-30 win and continued their late-season rise after opening the year 0-3. C.J. Stroud threw for 169 yards and a passing touchdown, British Brooks led the run game with 13 carries for 63 yards, and Woody Marks added 10 carries for 48 yards. Xavier Hutchinson was the top target with 5 receptions for 84 yards on 9 targets, and Dalton Schultz had 4 receptions for 73 yards. Houston has now won nine straight and has beat the Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, and the Colts twice in that stretch, which is even more impressive considering Stroud missed four games and the Texans won three of them without him. This team was slept on for much of the season, and while the offense was overlooked, the defense has played like a top unit for most of the year and carries that identity into the wild card round against the Steelers. Houston is -3 with a total of 38, and the line opening at -3.5 before moving suggests sharp money bought Pittsburgh at +3.5.

NYJ 8 @ BUF 35 (Divisional)

Jets (3-14-0): The Jets were dominated and looked like a team in full collapse, getting outgained by 348 yards and holding the ball for 16 fewer minutes while averaging just 2.7 yards per play compared to Buffalo’s 6.5. Brady Cook threw for 60 yards and a passing touchdown, Khalil Herbert led the rushing with 12 carries for 42 yards, and Kene Nwangwu added 7 carries for 18 yards. Isaiah Williams was the top target with 5 receptions for 24 yards on 7 targets, and John Metchie III added 3 receptions for 20 yards. The Jets are in full rebuild mode and hold the 2nd overall pick in the draft.

Bills (12-5-0): The Bills cruised to a 35-8 win with Mitchell Trubisky doing most of the work, as Josh Allen started only long enough to hand the ball off once to maintain his consecutive-start streak before resting due to an ankle injury. Trubisky threw for 259 yards with 4 touchdowns, Ray Davis led the run game with 21 carries for 151 yards and a touchdown, and Ty Johnson added 13 carries for 36 yards and scored two touchdowns. Gabe Davis was the top receiver with 5 receptions for 41 yards on 7 targets and a touchdown, while Dalton Kincaid had 3 receptions for 48 yards. Buffalo travels to play the Jaguars in the wild card round as -1.5 favorites, and if you shop around you can potentially find both sides at +1.5 for a middle, though a 1-point game is still uncommon. The media narrative that Buffalo has a clear path without Mahomes isn’t accurate, because Jacksonville is a serious hurdle, and with Buffalo’s defensive issues, the Jaguars have a real edge in this matchup.

DET 19 @ CHI 16 (Divisional)

Lions (9-8-0): The Lions edged out the Bears 19-16 as +3.5 underdogs after building a 13-point halftime lead and hanging on through Chicago’s 4th-quarter push where they scored all 16 points late. Detroit outgained the Bears 433 to 270, controlled the clock by 11 minutes, and moved the ball consistently throughout the game. Jared Goff threw for 331 yards and a passing touchdown, Jahmyr Gibbs had 19 carries for 80 yards and added a receiving touchdown, and David Montgomery added 8 carries for 42 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the top target with 11 receptions for 139 yards on 15 targets, and Jameson Williams had 6 receptions for 74 yards. Detroit’s season is over, and despite finishing with a winning record, the offense struggled to find consistency, with the biggest loss being offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Montgomery has publicly expressed frustration with his usage and could be on the move this offseason. The Lions hold the 17th overall pick in the draft.

Bears (11-6-0): The Bears fell just short in a 19-16 loss but again showed late-game fight, scoring all 16 of their points in the 4th quarter. Caleb Williams threw for 212 yards with 2 passing touchdowns, while D’Andre Swift led the rushing with 10 carries for 40 yards and Kyle Monangai added 6 carries for 14 yards, continuing the split that matters for props on either back. Colston Loveland led the team with 10 receptions for 91 yards on 13 targets and a touchdown, and Luther Burden III had 3 receptions for 35 yards. As the 2nd seed in the NFC, the Bears host the Packers in the wild card round and are +1.5 underdogs with a total of 44.5. With the injuries Green Bay has dealt with and their recent performance, we like the Bears +1.5 at home.

LAC 3 @ DEN 19 (Divisional)

Chargers (11-6-0): The Chargers came up short in a 19-3 loss to the Broncos with backup QB Trey Lance starting, and while we expected him to generate enough offense to keep it close, the unit struggled to finish drives. Lance threw for 136 yards and led the team with 9 carries for 69 yards, while Jaret Patterson added 8 carries for 29 yards. Keenan Allen was the top target with 7 receptions for 36 yards on 13 targets, which secured him $1 million in incentives. The Chargers travel to New England in the wild card round as +3.5 underdogs with a total set at 46.5. We expect the Patriots to win, but the +3.5 could be the right side for the spread.

Broncos (14-3-0): The Broncos won 19-3 and controlled the tempo, holding the ball for 8 more minutes than the Chargers and leaning into a conservative, clock-controlling approach. Bo Nix threw for 141 yards and also led the team on the ground with 8 carries for 49 yards, while R.J. Harvey had 15 carries for 28 yards and Jaleel McLaughlin added 6 carries for 41 yards. Pat Bryant was the top target with 4 receptions for 31 yards on 5 targets, and Evan Engram had 3 receptions for 45 yards. Denver earned a first-round bye and will host in the divisional round.

KC 12 @ LV 14 (Divisional)

Chiefs (6-11-0): The Chiefs fell just short against the Raiders in a 14-12 loss, but the bigger concern was the offensive line, which allowed 8 sacks and never gave the quarterbacks a chance to operate comfortably. Chris Oladokun started but left with an injury, and Shane Buechele finished by throwing for 88 yards. Brashard Smith led the rushing with 12 carries for 56 yards, Kareem Hunt added 5 carries for 14 yards, and Hollywood Brown was the top target with 3 receptions for 64 yards on 6 targets, while Noah Gray had 3 receptions for 30 yards. The Chiefs season is over, and the offseason will revolve around Patrick Mahomes’ ACL recovery and Travis Kelce’s retirement decision, with the expectation that the roster will look different next year.

Raiders (3-14-0): The Raiders edged out the Chiefs 14-12 behind a grind-it-out performance on offense. Backup QB Aidan O’Connell threw for 102 yards, Ashton Jeanty carried the load with 26 carries for 87 yards, and Michael Mayer led the pass game with 3 receptions for 47 yards on 5 targets. Las Vegas holds the 1st overall pick and will likely look to draft a quarterback.

ARI 20 @ LAR 37 (Divisional)

Cardinals (3-14-0): The Cardinals lost 37-20 and the theme of their season showed again, as they can score but cannot defend and it resulted in their ninth straight loss. They converted 4 of 11 third downs (36%) compared to the Rams’ 56% and their offensive line struggled, allowing 6 sacks. Jacoby Brissett threw for 243 yards and 2 passing touchdowns, Emari Demercado had only 2 carries for 29 yards, and Michael Carter added 7 carries for 18 yards. Trey McBride was the top target with 7 receptions for 65 yards on 8 targets, and Michael Wilson finished with 5 receptions for 99 yards. Arizona holds the 3rd overall pick and could consider drafting a quarterback, as Brissett may not have many years left and it appears the organization may be moving on from Kyler Murray. Murray still carries trade value and could land with a team that needs a starter but doesn’t draft one.

Rams (12-5-0): The Rams dominated the Cardinals 37-20, built an early lead, and never let Arizona back into the game. Matthew Stafford threw for 259 yards with 4 passing touchdowns, Kyren Williams had 12 carries for 60 yards, and Blake Corum added 13 carries for 59 yards. Puka Nacua led the way with 10 receptions for 76 yards on 11 targets and a touchdown, while Tyler Higbee added 5 receptions for 91 yards. The Rams enter the playoffs as the 5th seed in the NFC and travel to Carolina for the wild card round as -10.5 favorites, with a revenge angle after losing to the Panthers earlier this season.

MIA 10 @ NE 38 (Divisional)

Dolphins (7-10-0): The Dolphins were shut out in the second half after scoring 10 points early and were completely overwhelmed, getting outgained by 277 yards and averaging just 3.3 yards per play compared to the Patriots’ 8.2. Quinn Ewers threw for 137 yards and a passing touchdown, Jaylen Wright led the rushing with 13 carries for 23 yards, and Ollie Gordon II added 9 carries for 9 yards. Miami’s season is over and they have the 11th overall pick in the draft, and despite Mike McDaniel being told he would stay and be involved in the GM process, he was fired once Harbaugh became available. The expectation is that more changes are coming, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Tua Tagovailoa is moved before next season.

Patriots (14-3-0): The Patriots dominated the Dolphins 38-10 and overwhelmed them in every phase, outgaining Miami 457 to 180 and sacking the Dolphins quarterbacks four times while allowing zero sacks themselves. Drake Maye threw for 191 yards and a passing touchdown, and the run game exploded behind Rhamondre Stevenson, who had 7 carries for 131 yards and 3 touchdowns, and TreVeyon Henderson, who added 13 carries for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hunter Henry was the top target with 5 receptions for 56 yards on 5 targets, which secured him a $250k incentive, and Stefon Diggs had 3 receptions for 43 yards to secure another $500k. As the 2nd seed in the AFC, New England hosts the Chargers in the wild card round as -3.5 favorites, and while we expect them to win, it could be closer than the market expects.

WSH 24 @ PHI 17 (Divisional)

Commanders (5-12-0): The Commanders defeated the Eagles 24-17 in a divisional game that featured mostly backups, and Washington controlled the tempo by holding the ball for 8 more minutes. Third-string QB Josh Johnson threw for 131 yards and a passing touchdown, Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the run game with 16 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt added 13 carries for 29 yards. Terry McLaurin was the top target with 4 receptions for 57 yards on 4 targets. Washington’s season is over and they hold the 7th overall pick, and with Zach Ertz retiring they may look to add a tight end. Injuries played a major role in their regression this season, and the goal is a healthier, more stable year next season.

Eagles (11-6-0): The Eagles lost 24-17 and hurt themselves repeatedly with 9 penalties for 123 yards, while also holding the ball for 8 fewer minutes than Washington. Backup QB Tanner McKee threw for 241 yards and a passing touchdown, Tank Bigsby led the rushing with 16 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown, and Kylen Granson led the team in receiving with 4 receptions for 30 yards on 5 targets, while DeVonta Smith had 3 receptions for 52 yards. Philadelphia hosts the 49ers in the wild card round as -4.5 favorites, and with the line opening at -3, sharp action has supported the Eagles early.

BAL 24 @ PIT 26 (Divisional)

Ravens (8-9-0): The Ravens missed a field goal that would have sent them to the playoffs, and after it went wide right, they fired their head coach. Lamar Jackson battled injuries all season, but couldn’t beat the Steelers when it mattered most, and Baltimore’s season ends in another painful divisional loss. Derrick Henry led the offense with 20 carries for 126 yards, and Zay Flowers was the top target with 4 receptions for 138 yards on 6 targets and 2 touchdowns. The Ravens hold the 14th overall pick in the draft and head into an offseason with major questions after the coaching change.

Steelers (10-7-0): The Steelers edged out the Ravens 26-24 and won through efficiency and control, converting 9 of 16 third downs (56%) compared to Baltimore’s 33% and holding the ball for 8 more minutes. Jaylen Warren led the rushing with 14 carries for 66 yards, and Kenneth Gainwell was the top target with 8 receptions for 64 yards on 9 targets and a touchdown, continuing to show that Gainwell receiving props are key to Pittsburgh’s offensive success. Marquez Valdes-Scantling added 5 receptions for 34 yards, and the Steelers now host the Texans in the wild card round as +3 underdogs with a total of 38.5, with early line movement showing action on Houston after opening at -2.5.

Playoff Picture

AFC Bye: Denver Broncos

2. New England Patriots vs. 7. LA Chargers (Line: NE -3.5, Total: 46.5)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. 6. Buffalo Bills (Line: BUF -1.5, Total: 51.5)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. 5. Houston Texans (Line: HOU -3, Total: 38.5)

NFC Bye: Seattle Seahawks

2. Chicago Bears vs. 7. Green Bay Packers (Line: GB -1.5, Total: 45.5)

3. Philadelphia Eagles vs. 6. San Francisco 49ers (Line: PHI -4.5, Total: 44.5)

4. Carolina Panthers vs. 5. LA Rams (Line: LAR -10.5, Total: 46.5)

Who we want to see win vs. Who we think will win

Want: Patriots, Bills, Steelers, Packers, 49ers, Rams.

Likely: Patriots, Jaguars, Texans, Bears, Eagles, Rams.

Divisional Round Newsletter Picks

Saturday, Jan 10th

4:30PM - Rams @ Panthers

  • Jalen Coker o30.5 Rec Yards (-114, Fanduel). Coker has quietly been one of the most consistent offensive weapons for the Panthers in the last two months. In that time, he's averaged 46.9 yards per game, but specifically in week 13, he put up a season-best 74 receiving yards and a TD against the Rams. With plenty of defensive attention going Tet McMillan's way and the run game to account for, Coker is a sneaky play in a "prove it" game for Bryce Young and the Panthers.

Sunday, Jan 11th

1:00PM - Bills @ Jaguars

  • Trevor Lawrence o1.5 Passing TDs (-105, Betano). Lawrence has covered this line in 6 out of his 7 last games, and in the game he didn't cover, he still rushed for two TDs. While that rushing ability wouldn't help this bet, it does signal frequent trips to the red zone and plentiful scoring opportunities. In a projected shootout with the Bills that have shut down the run in the last month, expect Lawrence to fire on all cylinders.

8:00PM - Chargers @ Patriots

  • Rhamondre Stevenson o53.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-110, Betway). After returning from injury and playing his normal snaps from week 13 onward, Stevenson has been playing at an extremely efficient level. He's averaged 8.5 YPC with 63.8 rushing yards per game and has added on 15 receptions for 171 receiving yards in that span. Despite early season fumbling issues, he's been the more trusted member of the backfield between himself and Henderson, so he will likely be leaned on in New England's first playoff appearance in years.

Monday, Jan 12th

8:15PM - Texans @ Steelers

  • Kenneth Gainwell o30.5 Rec Yards (-105, Betano). While the Texans have allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing offenses this season, the Texans have the third-best pressure ratethey are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to running backs (14th-most). This presents an expectation that primary down rusher Jaylen Warren will suffer more than Kenneth Gainwell, who has a firm grip on the third down and 2-minute drill role. Rodgers is a statue at this point in his career and has targeted Gainwell a staggering 59 times since week 9, and he has averaged 44.7 yards per game on that volume. Facing the defense with the 3rd-best QB pressure rate in the NFL, Rodgers should continue to pepper Gainwell with targets in this high-stakes game.

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