Week 7 Insights
Week 7 Insights
This post contains insights and analysis for Week 7. This is not a capping service, this is for educational purposes only. We do not bet every single pick that is posted. This is to help provide you with information of where we see value based on trends and matchups. If you take any bets from our posts, that is your responsibly. We take no responsibility for your bankroll management or financial losses or gains. 1pm and 4pm slate posted. The blog post will be updated for later games.
Steelers @ Bengals (+5.5)
Our pick of the game was Bengals +5.5. Bengals getting +5.5 at home gave this side the value.
Rams @ Jaguars
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-120). Williams has hit this in his last 2 games and is getting the RB1 role. He has been getting receptions as a catching back and with Puka Nacua out this week, he will be leaned on even more. Posted to Instagram before game.
Saints @ Bears
Rome Odunze Anytime TD (+105). The Bears rank 32nd in giving up 2.6 passing TDs per game. WR Rome Odunze did not get in the end zone last week, but has hit in every other game this season, making him a good target at +105 odds.
D’Andre Swift over 56.5 rushing yards. Bears HC Ben Johnson showed last week that D’Andre Swift has a big role with this team. With a leading game script, I expect him to run the ball more often. His line is 56.5. He’s averaged 59 per game this season, but has only covered this line in 2 of 5 games. Last week he ran for 108 yards against the Commanders and it showcased his true ability.
Dolphins @ Browns
Dolphins over 16.5 points. The Dolphins have hit the team total over 16.5 in their last 5 games. They face a strong Browns defense, but there are some defensive players questionable and I can see Tua slinging the ball to Achane, Waddle, and Waller all day.
Dolphins +3 (-126). Both teams are 1-5 this season. Browns QB Dillion Gabriel is mediocre at best and TE David Njoku is out. This game is a coin flip, presenting the value on Dolphins ML +120. The spread is +2.5 for the Dolphins, but you can buy up to +3 (-126, Bookmaker).
Patriots @ Titans
Patriots 1st half team total over 12.5 points. The Patriots are -300 favorites. In games like this they are expected to score, especially when facing one of the worst teams in the league. Each week the Patriots have proven themselves to like to come out quick. In their last 3 of 4 away games, the Patriots have scored more than 12.5 points in the first half. This line is -125 on DraftKings and presents good value as I expect them to come out strong. All they need is a touchdown and 2 field goals.
Raiders @ Chiefs
Raiders +12.5. In a divisional matchup, this is where we see the unexpected. The Raiders were a successful field goal away from beating the Chiefs last season. These games are always close and the Raiders have covered +12.5 in their last 3 games head to head against the Chiefs. This is a very unpopular side, meaning the public is all over the Chiefs -12.5. It is hard to argue their reasoning after the Chiefs beat the Lions by 13 last week. I always think that fading the Chiefs is a bad idea like we discussed in Week 6 Weekly Recap, but I also never take double digit spreads. This is a lean, meaning I am not playing it, but this is the side I would take.
Eagles @ Vikings
Eagles Moneyline (-124, Bookmaker). In a divisional matchup, the Eagles are -124 on the moneyline. They are on the road against the Vikings who are still playing with Wentz at QB. We talked about how bad the Eagles have been, but I do not see them losing 3 in a row and think that the will get back to utilizing Barkley in the run game, which they got away from.
Giants @ Broncos
Giants +7.5 (-130, theScore). The Giants beat the Eagles last week by 17. The Broncos barely got past the Jets in a low scoring 13-11 game as -6.5 favorites. The Giants have proven they are a good football team, while the Broncos are having offensive consistency problems.
Colts @ Chargers
The public is all over the Colts +1.5 in this matchup and it’s hard to disagree. Colts are 5-1 facing the 4-2 Chargers who are at home. The Colts are in rhythm and despite playing weaker teams, they are still playing great football. Today will be a true test for them, but the Chargers have not looked great and their RB situation is changing weekly. WR Johnston is back in the line up which will give them a deep threat. I would lean to take the Colts on the spread, but wait for a live opportunity to get them at a key number like +3.5.
Commanders @ Cowboys
Cowboys o27.5 Total Points (+102, Betway). Every Cowboys game thus far has been a shootout thanks to the dynamic offense and brutal defense. Due to their proven inability to win games consistently, pivoting to a bet on their points scored is advisable, and with the likely return of top WR Lamb, this makes the bet even more enticing. We believe this game will be high scoring so the game total over could also be a good play, and buying down the total in a teaser is a good call too.
Panthers @ Jets
Panthers ML (-113, Pinnacle). The Panthers have been gaining some momentum in recent weeks, and the opposite can be said for the struggling Jets. The ascension of WR1 McMillan is real, and the emergence of RB Dowdle combined with the horrid rushing defense of the Jets should result in a win for Carolina. It's also worth noting that the already-thin passing weapons for the Jets will be without clear WR1 Garrett Wilson. I like the ML more than the -1.5 spread because it pushes if the game ends in a tie and if they win by 1 or 2, it'll cash. The Jets are 0-6. The Panthers are 3-3 and have shown their offense can score points. Panthers moneyline -125 is a great pick and we know the public is on this one, but there is no data to back up the Jets here.
Packers @ Cardinals
Packers -6.5 (-110, BetMGM). The Packers are elite on both sides of the ball and go up against a 2-4 Cardinals team that is likely missing their QB1, RB1 and WR1 due to injury. Backup QB Brissett performed relatively well against the Colts, but that defense was missing their top 3 cornerbacks. The Packers, at nearly full health, should dominate this matchup.
Falcons @ 49ers
Lots of sharp action on the Falcons +2.5. After how they played last week, there is a reason to justify this play. They dominated the Bills and looked fantastic. This week they go up against a team who in the standings look good, but are decimated with injuries now on the backend. If a similar game is played by the Falcons, we will see them win this game outright. The 49ers have TE George Kittle back which is one of their key weapons, but it might not be enough to overcome the this Falcons team.
