Week 7 Recap
Welcome to the Week 7 Recap. In this post we break down everything from this past week and keep you updated with information that can be valuable for Week 8. We also cover some interesting topics including anytime touchdown bets and how to look at parlay betting when you have a few legs left.
Newsletter Picks (3-1)
Eagles Moneyline ✅
The Eagles beat the Vikings 28-22.
Panthers ML ✅
The Panthers beat the Jets 13-6.
Cowboys o27.5 team total ✅
The Cowboys win and score 44 points against the Commanders.
Packers -6.5 ❌
The Packers win but they struggle to prevent the Cardinals from putting points on the board.
Blog Picks (5-6)
Kyren Williams Anytime TD ❌
Involvement is streaky in the redzone, stay away for now.
Rome Odunze Anytime TD ❌
Bears moving into a run game focus taking away redzone targets from receivers, stay away for now.
D’Andre Swift over 56.5 rushing yards. ✅
In games that Bears are favoured this can still be a good bet, but be careful of backup RB Monangai being more involved.
Dolphins over 16.5 points. ❌
Dolphins +3 ❌
Not much to discuss here, the Dolphins are not a good football team right now. Stay away from betting on bad teams at this point.
Patriots 1st half team total over 12.5 points ✅
Continue the trend to make it 6 straight games covering this line.
Raiders +12.5 ❌
Somehow it's possible to be worse than the Dolphins. The Raiders literally had 96 yards of offense. Several players across the league produced more yards themselves.
Giants +7.5 ✅
The Giants continue to impress, but blow a 19-0 lead in the 4th which means there is still lots for this young team to learn.
Colts +1.5 ✅
Continue to surprise everyone with dominant performances, but there is nothing to be surprised about. This team is lethal.
Cowboys/Commanders over 54.5 ✅
As expected this game sailed over and landed on 66.
Falcons +2.5 ❌
Hard to watch how bad they performed after beating the Bills but let’s remind ourselves they lost 30-0 to the Panthers. They looked like that version this week.
Headlines
PIT 31 @ CIN 33
Steelers (4-2): QB Rodgers has been amazing for the Steelers this season. 249 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns is typically enough to beat any opponent, but the defensive struggles were evident tonight. RB Jaylen Warren reclaims RB1 usage with 127 rushing yards, making this a great bet on his over or 50+ milestone prop going into future weeks. TE Pat Freiemuth played a big role in this game with 5 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers utilized his tight ends all night and this could be something to watch going forward for live betting when the Steelers are trailing. Steelers host the Packers in Week 8, which will be another close matchup.
Bengals (3-4): QB Flacco finds chemistry with his new receivers. He passed for 342 yards and had 3 passing touchdowns. The best bet for future weeks will be his over 1.5 passing touchdowns. He loves to throw the ball and now has a talented group of receivers to catch touchdowns. Despite having a bad start to the season, RB Brown gets going with 108 yards on 11 carries. This game was a one off for him and I don’t expect him to maintain those numbers in future weeks. WR Chase set Bengals record with 16 receptions in a single game. He led the team with 161 yards and a touchdown. There is value on his any time touchdown at plus money odds, he was +135 for this game. WR Higgins also had a great performance. 96 receiving yards and a touchdown. The Bengals host the Jets next week and are -6.5 favorites. I expect them to cover the -6.5 with ease as the Jets have nothing going for them and Flacco should have his way with offense.
LAR 35 @ JAX 7
Rams (5-2): QB Stafford kept it short and simple. He threw 5 touchdowns, setting an international games record. The game script did not line up for him to throw for many yards because he was in the lead the entire time and this affected all of the receivers' props to go under. The leading game script projected that it would force the running backs to pick up yards on the ground, but they slipped most of the reps leading to them not getting many. This has become a tough team to bet on for RB props as the splits between Williams and Corum have been inconsistent throughout the last few games. In the wide receiver room as long as Nacua is out, Adams will be the target to throw to. Adams now takes top rank in terms of expected touchdown scorers. The Rams have a bye week and host the saints in Week 9. Expecting them to blow out the Saints who only have won 1 game thus far.
Jaguars (4-3): This is the ugliest the Jaguars have looked all year. Between coaching miscues, a non-existent run game, bad QB accuracy and brutal WR drops, it’s a marvel that this team is 4-3. WR Thomas Jr. got hurt late in the game, not long after WR/CB Hunter broke for a long TD play, so a shift in offensive distribution could be coming in Hunter’s favour. The trailing game script led to a good opportunity to bet on QB Lawrence over 249.5 yards. There are not many positive takeaways from this game, but WR Hunter played a big role on both sides of the ball. He had some snaps on defense covering Davante Adams which successfully prevented him from gaining yards and on the offensive side he led the Jaguars with 6 receptions for 101 yards. The Jaguars move to 4-3 and have a lot to figure out to get into their regular form. Jaguars have a bye for week 8, but get back into against the Raiders in Week 9, who they should dominate.
NO 14 @ CHI 26
Saints (1-6): QB Rattler turned the ball over three times, allowing the Bears to run all over them and their susceptible rush defense. WR Olave has a career day with 5 receptions for 98 yards and 2 TDs. RB Miller suffers a torn ACL and is out for the year, leaving RB Kamara to be fed volume. QB Rattler had a slow start to this game, but in the second half he completed more of his throws that led to both touchdown passes.. The only thing the Saints have going for them is boosting their top players for better trade packages. There will be a lot of teams interested in Olave like the Buffalo Bills who are struggling in that space right now. RB Kamara has rumored that he doesn’t want to be traded and that he will retire if the Saints go against his wishes. It is clear that he wants to be a Saint for life, but the Saints might move him anyway. Saints host the Buccaneers in Week 8 as +4.5 underdogs. Anticipating the Buccaneers to bounce back from a bad game this week and cover -4.5 against the Saints.
Bears (4-2): It was an ugly day for QB Williams, who fumbled twice and threw an interception. It didn’t matter much because the run game was once again on fire between RB Swift and rookie RB Monangai, who put up 232 yards between the two of them. The latter’s usage was intriguing, playing a season-high 45% of snaps to Swift's 54%. This could just be because of Swift’s injury coming into the game, or it could be an incoming timeshare to monitor. D’Andre Swift cashes over 56.5 yards with 124 rushing yards on 19 carries. Swift also had one catch for 14 yards. We’ve often labelled Swift as a catching back, but it's clear that HC Ben Johnson has changed the game plan to get him yards on the ground. Despite another great performance for Swift, backup RB Kyle Monangai is someone to keep an eye on. He had 13 carries for 81 yards. Monangai is explosive and this could lead to more redzone snaps making him a top target for touchdowns as the season goes on.
MIA 6 @ CLE 31
Dolphins (1-6): QB Tagovailoa is battling Geno Smith for the “worst starting QB” title. Tua drops just 100 passing yards and throws three INTs. RB Achane is efficient as usual, but fails to find the endzone in the lopsided gamescript. WR1 Waddle is nearly invisible, and he may be a name to watch as the trade deadline approaches.
Browns (2-5): Without necessity, the passing game was a non-factor in this game. Instead, the Browns elected to let rookie RB Judkins cook, and Judkins responded with 84 rushing yards and three TDs. They even let him play QB in multiple wildcat formations, demonstrating trust in him over QB Gabriel.
NE 31 @ TEN 13
Patriots (5-2): QB Maye is cementing himself as a top 5 QB in the league. In this game, he broke his team’s franchise completion % record, previously held by Tom Brady. He also leads the league in deep ball accuracy, elevating the offensive environment around him. RB Stevenson is overwhelmingly the bellcow, with rookie RB Henderson an afterthought.
Titans (1-6): Their first game since HC Callahan was fired, QB Ward and the offense initially looked promising in this game, with rookie WR Dike stepping up in WR Ridley’s absence. They quickly fell apart, though, failing to score a single point in the second half.
LV 0 @ KC 31
Raiders (2-5): QB Smith is playing terribly, and without his top pass catching weapons in TE Bowers and WR Meyers, he failed miserably. RB Jeany unable to get anything going in negative game script. Complete blowout.
Chiefs (4-3): The return of WR Rice was welcomed by QB Mahomes, who funneled the offense through Rice all day and generated two TDs out of it. The run game is pedestrian at best, but RB Hunt briefly left the game with injury and rookie RB Smith stepped up in his place. He could be a name to watch as a late-season breakout candidate with his speed, youth and receiving skill.
PHI 28 @ MIN 22
Eagles (5-2): Hurts left a lot to be desired on the ground, but he finally got cooking through the air. WR Brown dropped 121 yards and scored two TDs on only 6 targets, but WR Smith exploded for 183 yards and a TD on 11 targets. This could be spelling an even split between the two going forward. RB Barkley was extremely inefficient at 2.44 YPC and didn’t contribute as a receiver either; he may be on the decline.
Vikings (3-3): QB Wentz throws two interceptions and zero TDs. RB Mason plays well and comes away with a TD. WR Addison out-targets WR Jefferson and generates 128 yards to the latter’s 79. Addison has quietly been hyperproductive since his return to the field in week 4, averaging 141.5 yards per game.
NYG 32 @ DEN 33
Giants (2-5): The vibes in New York have been picking up lately with rookies Dart and Skattebo boosting morale, but this was a crushing loss that shouldn’t have happened. Both QB Dart and RB Skattebo had great games, and WR Robinson was the only receiver to record a catch. Both TEs Bellinger and Johnson scored, showing a commitment to the run game and prioritization of the tight ends.
Broncos (5-2): The Broncos pulled off an all-time comeback, scoring all 33 of their points in the 4th quarter to ultimately win 33-32. QB Nix delivered when it mattered most, throwing 2 TDs, rushing 2 TDs, and throwing two 2-PT conversions all in the last quarter. RB Dobbins continues to own the backfield. WRs Sutton and Mims are the biggest contributors in the receiving game.
IND 38 @ LAC 24
Colts (6-1): QB Jones has a good, turnoverless day. WR Pittman scores a TD and a 2-PT conversion. RB Taylor is unequivocally the funnel of this offense, and he shines in this game with 132 yards and three TDs.
Chargers (4-3): QB Herbert throws for a whopping 420 yards and three TDs, but it isn’t enough to beat the depleted Colts defense. The run game was nonexistent, but WRs Allen, McConkey and Johnston all contributed. Perhaps the biggest breakout of the week belongs to rookie TE Gasden, who torches the Colts for 164 yards and a TD. With the rate this offense is throwing, he’s a name to watch
WAS 22 @ DAL 44
Commanders (3-4): Without top WRs McLaurin and Samuel, the QB Daniels has struggled and is forced to run more often than he should. As a result, Daniels ends up injuring himself and is questionable to miss next week. RB Croskey-Merritt is unable to capitalize on a soft matchup, only garnering 33 yards on 13 carries.
Cowboys (3-3): The Cowboys offense is historic and seemingly scores at will. They put up 44 points this week on the back of QB Prescott, WR Lamb, TE Ferguson and RB Williams, who all scored. While the defense is awful, it only promotes a more dynamic, necessary offense that can be predictably explosive week-to-week for betting purposes.
CAR 13 @ NYJ 6
Panthers (4-3): QB Young only threw 138 yards and a TD, and somehow he was still the best QB in this game. RB Hubbard returns to the lineup and starts over Dowdle, a perplexing decision given Dowdle’s insane last few weeks and his superior efficiency in this game. WR Legette outshines WR1 McMillan in yardage and targets, but the limited sample size doesn’t suggest this will stick.
Jets (0-7): This is the worst game of QB Fields’ career, only mustering 46 passing yards on 12 attempts. He was injured, returned to the game, and then ultimately benched for veteran QB Taylor. No offensive weapon was a factor in this game. The rumblings of Fields losing his starting job are justified.
GB 27 @ AZ 23
Packers (4-1): QB Love predictably spread the ball out in the passing game, slightly favouring WR Doubs and TE Kraft in this matchup. RB Jacobs was a game-time decision to play due to illness and a calf injury, but ended up playing and scoring 2 TDs.
Cardinals (2-5): QB Brissett managed a relatively impressive performance given the poor run game and difficult defensive matchup. The WRs all failed to make a sizable impact, but top target TE McBride put up 74 yards and 2 TDs on 10 receptions.
ATL 10 @ SF 20
Falcons (3-3): QB Penix has a fine day, throws one TD and commits zero turnovers. RB Robinson is the team’s offensive engine, and while he doesn’t find much room to run, he contributes in the passing game and is second in team receiving yards. WR London comes back down to earth after a massive performance last week, which could be partially due to the return of WR Mooney to the lineup.
49ers (5-2): QB Jones and the entire receiving corp underwhelms, but likely because RB McCaffrey was the entirety of the offense. With 31 touches, 201 total yards and two TDs, they could afford to not force downfield plays and focus on running and short area check downs. It was easily CMC’s most efficient game of the year at 5.38 YPC.
DET 24 @ TB 9
Lions (5-2): Outside of a TD from QB Goff to WR St. Brown, this offense was entirely on RB Gibbs’ back. With 218 all-purpose yards and two TDs, Gibbs outplayed every other Lion on offense and demonstrated his explosiveness on a 78 yard rush TD.
Buccaneers (5-2): It was an uncharacteristically down day for QB Mayfield, who was inefficient as a passer and only threw one TD to rookie WR Tez Johnson. The run game was putrid and the receiving game wasn’t much better. Veteran WR Evans returns to action but breaks his collarbone, likely ending his season.
HOU 19 @ SEA 27
Texans (2-4): It’s beginning to feel like a long time since QB Stroud’s sensational rookie season. The third year QB only completed 47% of his passes and managed a 1:1 TD to INT ratio. To Stroud’s credit, the run game has been equally subpar, with neither RB Chubb or RB Marks making much of an impact. WR1 Collins gets a concussion, and in a short week, will likely miss this coming matchup against SF.
Seahawks (5-2): QB Darnold has a down day, but that doesn’t prevent star WR Smith-Njigba from lighting up the box score with 123 yards and a TD, on pace for nearly 2000 yards this season. RB Charbonnet owns the goal line carry role for the backfield, making RB Walker a risky Anytime TD bet and conversely Charbonnet a solid one.
Betting on Anytime Touchdowns
Betting on any time touchdown scorers is more of a recreational bet. Sportsbooks charge a heavy fee on all of the players so when it is broken down, the house has a major edge. This is why I like to categorize the top players on each team scoring touchdowns and then line shop. Finding the best odds will give the house less of an edge and line your pockets with more profit when risking the same amounts.
For example, if Josh Jacobs is -210 at most sportsbooks to score a touchdown, but -185 somewhere else then you can have a higher payout if you were to risk $100. Betting $100 at -210 gives you a $47.62 profit, whereas a $100 bet at -185 gives you $54.05 profit. This is an example of how line shopping will get you more profit when the outcome wins.
The next thing I like to do is wait for the game to start and bet on players who are on my list to score, but have not done so yet. During the game, the odds will move. They get better and better as the game progresses because there is less time on the clock which equals less of a chance of them scoring. The odds will increase and when comparing these odds to the closing lines, we are getting a better price. For example, when Josh Jacobs did not score after the first half, his line went to +175 to score a touchdown. This was major value for someone who is in the game, getting redzone touches, and on a streak. We knew he would get more chances, he just had not yet. I did the exact same thing in this game for Tucker Kraft. He was +170 pre game, but live he moved up slightly to +180. This bet had way less value as it only moved up slightly, but the conditions in the game still made this a good bet. Now you know a strategy to bet on anytime touchdown scorers live.
To take this one step further I tracked Rams RB Kyren Williams anytime touchdown odds pre game to the third quarter:
Pre-game (-140)
2nd drive 1st quarter 5:15 (-105)
End of 1st quarter (+130)
3rd drive 2nd quarter 11:08 (+160)
4th drive 2nd quarter 4:37 (+230)
5th drive 2nd quarter 1:28 (+260)
Halftime (+370)
3rd quarter (+800)
From this data we can see that as the game goes on, the odds get higher. We’eve discussed why this occurs. The reason I like to use halftime as a good benchmark is because it gives a big enough number with still two full quarters to get a score. As you get further into the game, it becomes hard to measure what fair odds should be because the game script is changing and in some cases it could become a blowout to where that player is no longer in the game.
Another way to get better odds is to use a boost. It favours those with small bankroll because the max on the boosts are typically $25. Either way, the boost will give you odds that can beat out competitors' prices and get you closer to the true odds or in some cases make it a +EV bet.
To continue off of this, some sportsbooks like Fanduel have a market to bet either Josh Jacobs or Tucker Kraft to score. I do not know the odds this was set at for this game, but for those who do not have those markets, you can always bet both live at plus odds and make a profit if one of them scores. For example, if you bet $100 at +175 for Jacobs and $100 for Kraft at +180, if one of them scores you make either $75 or $80 profit. In the case of neither score, your total loss is $200, but if you win both, you profit $155. So here is another way you can approach live betting anytime touchdowns.
Why I personally bet on anytime touchdown scorers despite it not being a good bet
Betting on touchdowns is a very niche market and it makes the sportsbooks a lot of money because people love to make parlays off of them. There is nothing like having a touchdown parlay on a football Sunday and watching each leg get closer and closer to paying you out. It’s not so much that people think it will pay out, but it’s a modern day lottery ticket that gives bettors entertainment.. It is for these reasons that I bet on these markets. I get to have fun on Sundays watching each leg go by and hitting or losing and I get to make myself look like a degenerate gambler, which in the eyes of the sportsbooks makes me a great customer and increases my limits on other markets that I use to make real money on.
When it comes to making money on any time touchdown scorers, I broke down how I will take bets that beat the closing line value that will make me money overtime. In summary, I make money on the 2-3 legs touchdown parlays like the one that I’ve discussed in Week 6’s recap.
If you want to bet on touchdown scorers the first thing to do is make your list for each team. Then compare who they are facing that week, see if those players are healthy and likely playing, then line shop for the best price. You get the best odds on same game parlays because sportsbooks offer boosts. When you can get a 2 players on your list in the same game to score, sportsbooks will allow you to use the SGP boosts, so you can get extra value when your picks are in the same game. I frequently focus on the running backs like I did in the Falcons and 49ers game this week. Having a SGP with Robinson and McCaffrey was a smart way to make profit as both of them lead the offense with touchdowns and usage. Finding these key games is a great way to get boosted odds in a multi leg parlay.
Speaking of multi leg parlays, last week I hit a +2287 anytime touchdown parlay. TE Tucker Kraft, TE Tyler Warren, and TE Darren Waller. What was good about this bet is that all of them had touchdowns the week before and I knew they were going to be involved.
For Week 7, I had a 6-leg parlay. It included RB Johnathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Rachaad White. The odds were only +1786 which meant it was more likely to happen based on the odds, but in reality it wasn’t. Last week, I only needed 3 people in the endzone and I got better odds. 3 people to get a touchdown is more likely than 6. I knew last week's odds individually were mispriced and I cashed in big. This week I added more risk by selecting more players to score and at worse odds meaning it was not a good bet.
Going into the Monday night football game, I had 4 of 6 that hit and my cashout was $131.15. If I cashed out, I would have profited $31.15, which to me was not worth it. Gibbs got into the endzone and the cashout increased to $218.15. Now a $118.15 profit. Again with only one-leg remaining those cashout odds were terrible. I would have been better off to find a sportsbook with anytime touchdown scorer NO to see how much I could have arbitrage bet it for. You will know if it's a good cashout if you’re being offered more profit then what you could hedge out for, but in a case like this the arb will always secure more profit. Unfortunately, I did not have a sportsbook to hedge this live, so I took the loss. The loss from this was already covered with profits from other bets made over the weekend.
It is important to stick to your rules. If you want to win more parlays stick to 2-3 legs max. If you want the lottery tickets and the excitement, price that into your bankroll so it can be treated as fun money vs. trying to make consistent profit from it every week. For me, I hit a +2287, so if my budget is $100 a week on a parlay, then I am in profit no matter what the outcomes are for the rest of the season because I have won more than $1800 thus far. This is how I am able to afford to take these recreational bets and make profit off them over the course of a season.
Week 8 Insights
Anytime TD List Updated after Week 7:
Wide Receivers
WR Jam’mar Chase (CIN)
Now that Chase has a quarterback that can throw the ball, he is going to be getting a lot of targets. However due to how dominant he is, he might get double teamed a lot giving more value to WR2 Tee Higgins. Chase is still a great bet plus odds.
WR Davante Adams (LAR)
With Puka Nacua out, Adams moved into the WR1 slot and dominated with 3 touchdowns total. When Nacua comes back, Adams will continue to be a top redzone target, but might get less looks.
WR Rashee Rice (KC)
First game back from suspension and the Chiefs made a statement that he will be getting the ball. He got 2 TDs this week and we expect him to a center piece for this offense.
WR AJ Brown (PHI)
Just started getting targeted again after a low usage start to the season. Eagles have several weapons including QB Jalen Hurts, RB Saquon Barkely, WR Devonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert. Brown was a primary weapon in this week's game plan, but cannot confirm he will be involved every week.
WR Quentin Johnson (LAC)
Back from injury and gets right back at it as Herberts #1 deep threat. He has proven to be the top touchdown target for this team overall this season.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
Lots of weapons similar to the Eagles, but St. Brown gets a lot of short yardage plays and that means a lot of targets when in the redzone. If its 3rd or 4th down at the 30, he is likely getting a target. If it's 3rd and goal, they usually opt to run or pass a running back like Gibbs or Montgomery.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njiba (SEA)
Smith-Nijiba has made his name in Seattle. In his second year, he is leading the Seahawks in every category. He is this team's offensive weapon for anything related to the passing game. He should always be considered for a touchdown. Last season QB Darnold was passing to Justin Jefferson and now he's finding similar chemistry.
Running Backs
RB Quinshon Judkins (CLE)
Judkins is making QB Dillon Gabriel's job very easy. Judkins ran for 3 touchdowns, one of them a breakout 42-yard run. There is no better person to bet on to get in the endzone as this team is led by Judkins.
RB Cam Skattebo (NYG)
Skattebo is more than just hype, he can run through walls and is fearless. He got another touchdown to maintain his streak. There are a lot of options on this roster, but he has secured the RB1 role and anything short and goal is for his to take care of.
RB Johnathan Taylor (IND)
Taylor scores a hat trick. He will always be this team's top option.
RB Javonte Williams (DAL)
Did not score last week, but was determined to get into the endzone this week and he did so twice. Expect him to get lots of chances to get into the endzone even with Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson as alternate options.
RB Josh Jacobs (GB)
2 touchdowns this week.
RB Christian McCaffrey (SF)
McCaffrey is the king of LA. Everything that goes through SF goes through him. He tallied 2 TDs in this one and is the reason they are winning games. Even with the return of TE Kittle back in the lineup, the 49ers gave McCaffrey the thrown.
RB Bijan Robinson (ATL)
Another week that Robinson gets into the endzone. He is a beast, but back RB Alliegier can take away red zone snaps from him.
RB Jamhyr Gibbs (DET)
Huge bounce back spot this week for Gibbs. He got in the endzone twice and dominated in the rush and receiving game. Always expect him to get into the endzone despite backup RB Montgomery coming in for snaps.
RB Zach Charbonnet (SEA)
Charbonnet is the RB2 but is the preferred redzone option. He is a powerback that can get through walls whereas RB1 Walker makes more of an impact with open space.
Tight Ends
TE Tyler Warren (IND)
Warren is QB Jones' favourite target in the redzone when he is passing. This is leading to Warren having a breakout rookie season and has to be considered in every game for a touchdown.
TE Jake Feguson (DAL)
QB Prescott has always loved targeting Feguson, but each week he is getting more and more targets in the redzone. This is a great bet because he is usually having pre game odds of +155 or more. This week Ferguson had 2.
TE Trey McBride (ARI)
QB Brissett made McBride the main target this week as he scored both of the touchdowns for the Cardinals. As long as Brisett is in, McBride is the top target.
TE Tucker Kraft (GB)
QB Jordan Love connected with Kraft a lot this season. To no surprise he gets into the endzone on a 7 yard pass. It’s pretty clear that Kraft is the top target when Love is throwing the ball in the redzone.
The Sunday of Week 8 is National Tight Ends Day. I like Warren, Ferguson, and Kraft to get into the endzone +1463.
More Data Insights:
One of the stats that winning teams typically lead in is possession time. In Week 7, 11 of 15 teams that led the possession time category won the game. Possession time is so important in any sport because it gives your opponent less time to score. In football, possessing the ball is a science. You want to run the ball when leading to milk the clock. When you are trailing you are trying to complete passes on the side of the field to stop the clock without using timeouts. Add average possession time into your pre game analysis when trying to make a pick on who is going to win the game.
Part of betting includes an ongoing education. I came across a video that discussed how often 1st half unders hit and for the key number to be 24. So I tracked it for Week 7 and noticed that it hit in 11 of 15 games. This is something to keep an eye on especially in games that start with early scores but you anticipated the pre game under for the full game to go under. This pushes the first half line up which can allow for betting under 27.5 or 24.5 live. Teams take a little bit to settle in most games and this can cause lower scoring in the first half. Teams are also not always trying to score a touchdown at the end of the first half, more so getting in range to kick a field goal. In the second half, we are guaranteed to get more wild plays happening with teams going for it on 4th downs, onside kicks, leading to either scoring from that team, or giving the ball up in good field positions for the other teams to put points on the board. There are more conservative plays in the first half and more desperate plays in the second half.
Picks:
San Francisco 49ers moneyline +118 Pinnacle
49ers are 3-1 head to head and 3-0-1 against the spread. They opened at +2.5 on the spread and are +2 to +1 on the spread showing that they are getting the action. I am not playing spreads here as it doesn’t cover a field goal. I am on the moneyline at plus money odds. 49ers are 5-2 this season and I’ve been betting against them due to their injury situation, but they have consistently showed that the injuries are not preventing them from winning games. The offense runs through RB McCaffrey and this will be TE Kittle’s seconds game back. On the other side, the Texans offense is one of the worst in the league. Stroud has declined this season and last week it was their defense that had their only touchdown until the final minutes of the game. The line is wrong here. You can take them pre game or live at better odds if they are trailing, which I doubt they will be. As a teaser, I would take the 49ers spread and buy points on the under as the Texans will struggle to move the ball. Conservative play will be 49ers spread.
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 -116 Pinnacle
The Cowboys are the highest scoring team. They do not have the best defense, but last week they were able to get more stops and win by 22 points. This week they face a defensively strong Broncos team who last week were losing 19-0 going into the 4th quarter. The Broncos offense is what has been inconsistent and if the Cowboys defense can get some stops, I think they will win this game outright because of how good the offense is. Taking +3.5 as Cowboys are 4-3 ATS and Broncos are 2-4-1.
Bengals -6.5 +100 theScore
Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season. The Bengals are 3-4 on the moneyline while the Jets are 0-7. The Bengals beat a strong Steelers team last week and with the new spark of life at QB with Flacco, they are in a good position to get another win and get back into playoff contention. They should have no problems covering a touchdown against the Jets who similarly to the Texans have major issues moving the ball on offense.
Leans
Steelers +3.5
Buccaneers -3.5
Giants +7.5
Patriots -6.5
