Week 8 Recap
Week 8 Recap — Newsletter Picks: 0-3 (Correction from Week 7: 3-1)
Bad week? Absolutely.
Looking closely, I questioned my process — but the issue wasn’t strategy, it was context. The losses came entirely from pre-game bets, not live plays.
When zooming out, Week 8 was statistically historic:
Favorites went 11–2 (84.6%), their best win rate in a single week since December 1985.
All 11 favorites covered by 7+ points, the most in any week over the last 30 years.
For someone who thrives on finding value with underdogs, key numbers, and contrarian positions, this was an impossible week to win. The public feasted, and value-driven bettors were left holding the bag. Still, every loss holds a lesson — and learning to identify outlier weeks like this is part of growing as a bettor.
Game Reviews
49ers ML ❌
The 49ers finally decided to play like the team we expected when we didn’t bet on them. Earlier this season, we faded Mac Jones and the injured Niners only to watch them dominate. When the numbers finally lined up — 3-0-1 head-to-head vs. a weak Texans offense — they couldn’t move the ball and failed to deliver.
Bengals -6.5 ❌
Cincinnati came out sharp, built an early lead, then completely collapsed. They not only failed to cover but lost outright, handing the Jets their first win of the season. A classic case of momentum loss and mental letdown after success.
Cowboys +3.5 ❌
In Week 7, Dallas won by 22. In Week 8, they lost by 22. This inconsistency is exactly why we avoided their spread the week before. The team total over continues to be the sharper angle going forward — Cowboys games have become shootout magnets.
Trends
Across 13 games in Week 8:
11 of 13 winning teams also led time of possession.
10 of 13 first halves went Under 24.5 points.
9 of 13 games had more second-half scoring than first-half scoring.
These trends are telling:
Time of possession remains a strong indicator of which team will win.
First halves are slower-paced and lower scoring.
Second halves open up with more rhythm and points.
Looking Ahead — How to Apply This in Week 9
Factor in time of possession during pre-game analysis. Teams that sustain drives and control pace often dictate outcomes and spreads.
Capitalize on inflated live totals after early scores. If a team scores on its opening drive, first-half totals can jump from 24.5 → 27.5 → 31.5. Betting the Under on those inflated lines offers value.
Stay disciplined. Not every week will align with value betting principles — but consistency wins long-term.
Headlines
MIN 10 @ LAC 37
Vikings (3-4): QB Wentz was under duress all game and only managed 144 passing yards before suffering a season-ending injury. No RB made an impact due to game script. WR Addison found the end zone, but neither he nor WR Jefferson posted notable stats.
Chargers (5-3): QB Herbert threw 3 TDs and 227 yards on 25 attempts. WR McConkey is heating up, while early-season breakout WR Johnston is fading. Rookie TE Gadsden has emerged as a reliable weapon, and RB Vidal shined as the workhorse against a strong Vikings defense.
MIA 34 @ ATL 10
Dolphins (2-6): QB Tagovailoa was mistake-free, throwing 4 TDs on 6 incompletions. RB Achane led the backfield, while RB Gordon is becoming a factor in this more run-heavy offense. WRs Waddle and Washington each scored.
Falcons (3-4): With backup QB Cousins starting, the Falcons managed only a field goal and a late rushing TD from RB Allgeier. RB Robinson and TE Pitts were the only active starters, so improvement is expected once QB Penix and WR London return.
CHI 16 @ BAL 30
Bears (4-3): QB Williams cooled off with 285 yards, 1 INT, and no TDs. RB Swift remained consistent, while WRs Odunze and Moore put up yardage without scoring. Avoid TD props until Williams rebounds.
Ravens (2-5): With QB Jackson out, RB Henry carried the load, scoring 2 TDs. WR Flowers remains the only dependable target, but all pass-catchers should improve when Jackson returns.
NYJ 39 @ CIN 38
Jets (1-7): QB Fields redeemed himself with 244 yards and no turnovers. RB Hall was the star — 133 rushing yards, 2 TDs, plus a passing TD on a trick play.
Bengals (3-5): The offense was fine, the defense wasn’t. QB Flacco accounted for 3 TDs, RBs Brown and Perine combined for 3 more, and WR Chase dominated with 19 targets to WR Higgins’ 2. Bengals games are best targeted for totals, not sides.
BUF 40 @ CAR 9
Bills (5-2): QB Allen threw for 163 yards and a TD but rushed for 2 more. RB Cook exploded for 216 yards and 2 TDs, establishing himself as a top-5 back.
Panthers (4-4): QB Dalton struggled, throwing for 175 yards and 1 INT. RBs Hubbard and Dowdle split touches again. WR McMillan led with 99 yards but limited TD upside.
SF 15 @ HOU 26
49ers (5-3): San Francisco had its lowest time of possession (18:39) in the Shanahan era. QB Jones failed to sustain drives, and all skill players — even RB McCaffrey — hit season lows.
Texans (3-4): QB Stroud completed 77% of passes and spread the ball well to WRs Hutchinson and Higgins. RB Marks is outperforming RB Chubb and looks poised to take over as the starter.
CLE 13 @ NE 32
Browns (2-6): QB Gabriel started hot but fizzled. RB Judkins was injured — status TBD. Rookie TE Fannin led the offense in yards.
Patriots (6-2): QB Maye and RB Henderson led a late surge. WR Diggs scored his first TD of the season, and WR Boutte added a deep one.
NYG 20 @ PHI 38
Giants (2-6): QB Dart played well but couldn’t replicate his earlier success. RB Skattebo and WR Nabers are both out long-term, likely ending the Giants’ season hopes.
Eagles (6-2): Their most dominant showing all year. QB Hurts and RB Barkley both shined, though Barkley left injured. RB Bigsby filled in effectively — monitor this closely.
TB 23 @ NO 3
Buccaneers (6-2): QB Mayfield threw for 152 yards and no TDs, but the defense scored twice. RB Tucker found the end zone, though RB Irving’s return could shift usage.
Saints (1-7): QB Rattler was benched for rookie QB Shough, who looked marginally better. RB Kamara continues to regress, while WRs Olave and Shaheed combined for 24 targets.
TEN 14 @ IND 38
Titans (1-7): QB Ward is improving but not yet enough to win. Rookie WR Dike has become their top playmaker. RB Spears out-touched RB Pollard and scored the team’s only TD.
Colts (7-1): QB Jones threw 3 TDs on 272 yards. RB Taylor erupted for 174 yards and 3 TDs, while WRs Pittman, Downs, and Pierce all contributed.
DAL 24 @ DEN 44
Cowboys (3-4-1): QB Prescott had his worst game of the year with 188 yards and 2 INTs. RB Williams scored twice on 13 carries, while WRs Lamb and Pickens had quiet days.
Broncos (6-2): QB Nix threw 4 TDs, and RB Harvey scored 3 on only 8 carries. WR Franklin led the receivers with 89 yards and 2 TDs.
GB 35 @ PIT 25
Packers (5-1-1): QB Love threw for 360 yards and 3 TDs. RB Jacobs scored again but shared work with RB Wilson, who looked sharper. No clear WR1 emerged.
Steelers (4-3): QB Rodgers threw 2 TDs and no turnovers. WRs Metcalf and Wilson both scored. The run game was efficient but lacked red-zone finishes.
WAS 7 @ KC 28
Commanders (3-5): QB Mariota threw 1 TD and 2 INTs. The run game was ineffective. WR McLaurin scored in his return but re-injured himself.
Chiefs (5-3): After 2 early INTs, QB Mahomes settled in with 299 yards and 3 TDs. WR Rice led the way with 93 yards and a TD, while TE Kelce added 99 yards and another score.
Week 8 Summary
Week 8 centered around Tight End props, which flooded social media and cost many bettors money. Most of the league’s top TEs — like Jake Ferguson (DAL) and Tyler Warren (IND) — failed to score despite heavy public backing.
The smarter approach in these narrative-driven weeks is to bet players individually rather than stacking parlays. My focus was on Ferguson, Warren, and Kraft, and only Kraft delivered.
Instead of chasing, I pivoted to running backs, who quietly dominated. Many RBs had strong first halves without TDs, creating live-betting value in the second half.
Example: Josh Jacobs (GB) opened at −410 Anytime TD, hadn’t scored by halftime, and was available live at −103 — later +185 — before scoring on the next drive.
This week reinforced the biggest lesson:
Live betting creates real value when you anticipate, not react.
Identifying the right players and moments comes naturally with consistent tracking and experience.
