Week 9 Recap
Week 9 Recap
Newsletter Picks: 3-1
De’Von Achane over 56.5 rushing yards ✅
Achane tallied 67 yards against the Ravens in a game script where the Dolphins threw the ball. This shows a weakness for the Ravens defense failing to stop the run.
Colts -2.5 ❌
Colts winning streak comes to an end in Pittsburgh losing 27-20. A late effort to make a comeback was encouraging for team morale, but not enough time to win the game.
Saints u14.5 ✅
The Saints scored 10 points in the first half and that was enough for them. Playing with a backup QB Tyler Shough, the Saints were not set up to succeed. The team total under 14.5 was a great pre-game take against a strong LA Rams defense.
Mahomes u275.5 ✅
Mahomes threw for 250 yards. He is now 5/5 covering his under-passing yards against the Bills. In this game they went up early but then were playing from behind for the rest. Typically this would be the perfect live script to take an over, but Mahomes struggled to convert 3rd downs forcing more punts.
Headlines:
BAL 28 @ MIA 6
Ravens (3-5): Lamar is back and ready to put his team on his back to make a playoff run. RB Henry broke out for 119 yards and all receivers were involved including TE Andrews who tallied 2 touchdowns. Easy schedule for the next few weeks but need to continue to win and build team chemistry so they are prepared if they make the playoffs.
Dolphins (2-7): Dolphins struggle on all levels. The temperature reaches its boiling point and the GM gets fired. Week 10 the Dolphins host the Bills who are hot after taking down the Chiefs.
SF 34 @ NYG 24
49ers (6-3): Mac Jones has a perfect first half going 14/14. RB McCaffrey led the 49ers with 28 carries for 106 rushing yards and 67 receiving yards. Jones has stepped up for this 49ers team this season, but McCaffrey is a one man show. 49ers rematch the Rams in Week 10, who they beat as underdogs earlier this season.
Giants (2-7): The Giants are missing Cam Skattebo after a season ending injury that he suffered last week against the Eagles. It is clear that their rush game has been impacted. QB Dart led the Giants with 56 rushing yards. RB Devin Singletary took the majority of the snaps with 8 carries and 2 receptions, while RB Tyrone Tracy had 5 carries and 3 receptions. Wan’Dale Robinson still the clear WR1 with Nabers out as he tallied 9 receptions, 4 more than any other Giants player. The Giants travel to Chicago to face the Bears who are finding new ways to score every week.
LAC 27 @ TEN 20
Chargers (6-3): The Chargers defense is depleted with injuries. They trailed 14-7 in the first quarter to the Titans who are the worst team in the NFL. This is unacceptable for a team of this caliber. Luckily they have a strong enough offense to combat this and pulled off a 27-20 win, but they cannot expect to beat good teams with that type of defense. After RB Kimani Vidal went nuclear in Week 8, he regressed majorly in this game only gaining 30 yards on 12 carries. His lack of production put him at 2.5 yards per carry, the lowest on the team. Herbert almost doubled Vidal’s yards with 57. Herbert’s rushing yards are something to consider betting the over on. The Chargers host the Steelers in Week 10. The Steelers should be able to capitalize on the Chargers injured defense.
Titans (1-8): Got off to a hot start, which is showing signs of improvement, but need to capitalize when other teams are having bad games. QB Ward only completed 12/21 passes and threw for 145 yards. These numbers are not going to win games in the NFL unless your defense is one of the best in the league, but the Titans are not. Titans have a bye for Week 10.
MIN 27 @ DET 24
Vikings (4-4): Speaking of capitalizing when other teams have bad games, this is exactly what the Vikings did. J.J McCarthy only went 14/25 and had 143 yards, but the team was able to score 27 points because the offense scored when they were given the chance and they stopped the Lions on 4th downs. Addison led the receivers with 48 yards which amplifies how the Vikings capitalized on offense opportunities. Typically if the leading receiver had 48 yards, that team would lose the game. In this game, the Vikings just got the ball in good field position. Vikings host the Ravens in Week 10 who will be another tough challenge.
Lions (5-3): The Lions run game was non-existent. This is the third time this season that the running backs had off games. This is not a good sign for the Lions. This is their identity and if teams learn how to shut them down, we will be seeing more sighs from HC Dan Campbell. Lions look to bounce back against the Commanders in Week 10, who will have backup QB Mariota starting. Lions should be able to cover this spread with the bounce back motivation and how poorly the Commanders played against the Seahawks last week.
ATL 23 @ NE 24
Falcons (3-5): QB Penix plays a great game and connects with WR London on 3 TDs. The Pats defense was able to hold RB Robinson to 46 rushing yards, but he made contributions through the air to make up for it. Between a missed extra point and a brutal sack for loss in scoring territory at the end of regulation, the Falcons had several chances to win this game but couldn’t execute when it mattered most. Falcons travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts in Week 10. This will be a tough game for the Falcons just like the Patriots game and will need all hands on deck to pull an upset.
Patriots (7-2): QB Maye throws 2 TDs and 259 yards but throws an INT and loses a costly fumble near the end of the first half that resulted in a Falcons TD. WR Douglas records his first 100 yard game of his career. RBs Henderson and Jennings split the rushing workload but Henderson dominates snaps. The Patriots face the Buccaneers in Week 10. This will be a game I can see the Patriots winning, but it will come down to getting stops on defense.
IND 20 @ PIT 27
Colts (7-2): Colts started the game off normally scoring a touchdown, but then struggled to score in the 2nd quarter which was the stand alone quarter that cost them the game. Despite their offensive struggles in the 2nd and 3rd quarter, they moved the ball well in the 4th quarter and had 3 scores. Ultimately they ran out of time, but the end of game push was good for team morale.
Steelers (5-3): Continue to be underestimated but prove they can compete against good teams. RB Warren punched 2 touchdowns in from the goal line, which makes him a player to watch for any short and goal reps.
DEN 18 @ HOU 15
Broncos (7-2): The Broncos pulled off another win with a last minute field goal to overcome the Houston Texans. The Broncos were not impressive in this match and lost the possession battle by almost 10 full minutes. This shows that they took advantage of the opportunities they were given and got stops on the other side of the ball. The Broncos have not been very consistent, but are doing enough to win games. They face the Raiders to kick off Week 10 and are -9.5 favourites.
Texans (3-5): QB Stroud only threw for 79 yards before exiting the game with a concussion. This changed the game for the Texans and they were not able to find their way into the endzone. This is not the first game this season they haven’t scored a touchdown in a game. That stat alone makes them a team you do not want to bet on if they can only kick field goals. They are slight underdogs at home against the Jaguars in Week 10. The Jaguars should pick up the win as Stroud has been ruled out. Both teams are not consistent at getting into the endzone, but the Jaguars do have a new wide receiver on their squad Jakobi Meyers who might give them a boost. The lean is under 37.5.
CHI 47 @ CIN 42
Bears (5-3): The Bears very nearly blew this game in historic fashion, leading 41-27 with 2:46 left in the game and allowing the Bengals to equalize that score with under a minute of game remaining. QB Williams had his best game of his career, contributing 280 passing yards, 53 rushing yards, 3 passing TDs and a receiving TD. Rookie RB Monangai was electric in the first start of his career, turning 26 carries and 3 receptions into 198 total yards. Fellow rookie TE Loveland had himself a breakout game as well with 118 yards and 2 TDs. WR1 Odunze was invisible and failed to record a catch; WR Moore and Zaccheaus picked up the slack.
Bengals (3-6): QB Flacco showed an incredible amount of poise under pressure, especially toward the end of the game with a near-comeback. He threw for 470 yards and 4 TDs. WR Higgins was the best weapon on the field for the Bengals, recording 121 yards and 2 TDs. RB Brown was limited in the run game due to game script but did record 14 targets, making his receiving props intriguing in games where the Bengals are expected to trail.
CAR 16 @ GB 13
Panthers (5-4): The Panthers got out played in almost every statistical category, but were able to pull off a huge upset as +12.5 underdogs. This shows that on any given Sunday underdog teams can beat heavy favorites. There is no such thing as a sure thing, that is why the games are played. RB Rico Dowdle punched in 2 touchdowns who is a top player in this offense. Consider him to score a touchdown next week against the Saints.
Packers (5-2-1): The Packers did not look like themselves in this game. The worst part wasn’t even that they lost the game, it was that TE Tucker Kraft got injured and is out for the season. This is a player who led the team with the most receiving touchdowns and cannot be easily replaced. This is a huge setback for a team who looked to be a top contender. The Packers have a tough matchup against the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 10 and it will take everything they got to not lose back to back games. Consider the Eagles +2.5.
NO 10 @ LAR 34
Saints (1-8): As expected, the Saints struggled to get going in this game. They had the same amount of points as first downs, 10. The only positive thing going for the Saints is that backup QB Tyler Shough is getting reps. Other than that, this team is horrendous. The Saints traded one of their top receivers Rsahid Shaheed to the Seattle Seahawks. Saints travel to Carolina to face the Panthers in Week 10, expecting another low scoring team total.
Rams (6-2): The Rams dominated this matchup in every category. 43:53 of possession, 30 first downs and 77 total plays. QB Stafford spread the ball out to all of his key players. WR Nacua had 95 receiving yards and a touchdown on 7 catches. Davante Adams had 60 yards, 2 touchdowns on 5 receptions. RB Kyren Williams had 25 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown. Despite playing a bad Saints defense, this is exactly what we want to see from this Rams team as they go on to rematch the 49ers in Week 10. Expect them to roll this momentum and come out with a win.
JAX 30 @ LV 29
Jaguars (5-3): Jaguars get the win in overtime after the Raiders failed their 2-pt attempt. QB Trevor Lawrence rushed for 2 touchdowns. RB Etienne had 22 carries for 84 yards which is encouraging for a team who has struggled with the run game this season. RB Etiene also had 5 catches for 31 yards, establishing he will be leaned on as a catching back when needed. WR Parker Washington led the team with 8 receptions and 90 yards. Jaguars pick up WR Jakobi Meyers who will be a solid target for Lawrence.
Raiders (2-6): Raiders play surprisingly well. All offense goes through TE Brock Bowers who had 12 receptions, 127 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bowers is their best player to throw the ball to, but Geno Smith has struggled to throw the ball to him consistently. It was a matter of time before he had a breakout game. Despite a strong performance, they still couldn’t get a win. Their choice to go for the 2-pt conversion in overtime was the difference between them winning or losing. An extra point would have put them in a position to tie. They are off to Denver in Week 10, which is expected to be a low scoring game.
KC 21 @ BUF 28
Chiefs (5-4): For the first time in Mahomes career, he was under 50% in completions. RB Kareem Hunt takes back field duties with Pacheco out. Hunt had 49 yards and a touchdown. TE Kelce and WR Rashee Rice tie for the lead in receptions.
Bills (6-2): The Bills continue to follow their trend of beating the Chiefs in the regular season. The test they seem to fail is beating them in the playoffs. QB Josh Allen is the favorite to win the MVP after his big performance. 2 rushing touchdowns and extremely accurate in the passing game completing 23 of 26 passes. RB James Cook also produced with 27 carries and 114 yards. Cook was robbed of a touchdown by backup Ty Johnson. It is tough to see Cook do all of the ground work and not get rewarded with a touchdown. It seems that the Bills can be inconsistent on who will run the ball in the endzone between Cook, Allen or other running backs. I suggest betting on the team’s over rushing touchdowns instead of individual players to score. Bills travel to Miami to rematch the Dolphins in Week 10. Expecting them to cover -9.5 with ease, some sportsbooks have -8.5.
SEA 38 @ WAS 14
Seahawks (6-2): The Seahawks had a perfect first half with QB Sam Darnold completing 14/14 passes and the team scoring 31 points. The second half was slower for them, but finished with 38 points overall. WR Tory Horton is a key player to watch for anytime touchdowns. Darnold connected with Horton for 2 touchdowns. WR Smith-Njiba led the Seahawks with 8 receptions and 129 yards. He remains one of the top receivers in the league and can be counted on for any milestone props as he covers main lines consistently.
Commanders (3-6): The Commanders season is no repeat of last year. Injuries have haunted them all season and in this game they lost QB Jayden Daniels who suffered a dislocated elbow. The Commanders are depleted and don’t stand much of a chance against the Lions in Week 10.
AZ 27 @ DAL 17
Cardinals (3-5): With QB Jacoby Brissett now behind the wheel, the Cardinals defeat the Cowboys 27-17. The Cardinals led the time of possession battle with 33:20 of the 60 minutes. RB Emari Demercado led the backfield with 14 carries and 79 yards. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. recovered with 7 receptions, 96 yards, and a touchdown. TE Trey McBride also contributed with a touchdown. The Cardinals exceeded expectations in this game and they will need to continue this momentum in Week 10 as they go on to face their divisional rival, the Seattle Seahawks.
Cowboys (3-5-1): QB Dak Prescott used his key players, but it was not enough to combat the Cardinals offense. RB Javonte Williams was efficient with 15 carries and 83 yards. WR CeeDee Lamb 7 receptions 85 yards, George Pickens 6 receptions 79 yards, TE Jake Ferguson 5 receptions, 50 yards. The positive is that all of the key players for the Cowboys were involved, they just weren’t able to finish drives in the endzone. The Cowboys are an extremely aggressive team. Going for it on 4th and short when they have the league’s best kicker continues to hurt them. The Cowboys are on bye for Week 10.
Trends
Time of possessions leaders went 10-4 this week, a trend down from last week.
Over the past few weeks we’ve tracked the first half under 24.5. This week the script writers wanted a high scoring first half with only 7 of 14 games going under.
After last week's heavy favorites covering, we expected some of the underdogs to win outright. Perhaps the most likely upsets were the Bills and Broncos, but the shocking ones were the Panthers and Vikings.
Week 10 Early Insights
The biggest thing to keep in mind now that we are entering a point in the season where we are getting more rematches is that teams usually split series. We already got a glimpse of it with the Giants and Eagles last week. The Giants won game one, and the Eagles won game two.
4 rematches include Rams vs. 49ers, Bills vs. Dolphins, Texans vs. Jaguars, Seahawks vs. Cardinals.
Newsletter Picks
Bills (-8.5) vs. Dolphins
Bills cover the spread against the Dolphins. This goes against the splitting trend, but for good reason. The Bills are coming off a strong win against the Chiefs. The Dolphins did not score a touchdown last week.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Seattle -6.5 against the Cardinals. This game also goes against the splitting trend. The Seahawks have dominated this divisional matchup winning 9 of the last 10 head to head. The Seahawks have also covered the spread in 7 of these 10 games. If Darnold can play similarly as he did against the Commanders, he will be tough to stop.
Underdog Pick of the Week:
Patriots +3. Tampa Bay is great at home, but have not been as consistent as we’ve liked when playing in the big games. The Patriots have been on fire so we expect them to keep up the momentum on the road.
Blog Picks
Texans vs. Jaguars
Under 37.5. Texans QB Stroud is out, the Texans have a strong defense. The Jaguars are inconsistent on offense which can prevent them from scoring touchdowns. Can buy the under up to 44.5 in a teaser.
Rams vs. 49ers
Rams vs. 49ers is a tough one. Based on the trend to split, I like the Rams moneyline, but I think the better bet is the over 49.5 points.
Recreational Running Back Anytime TD Parlay (+887)
Jonathan Taylor -295
Has scored in 6/9 games this season. Did not score last week and they lost the game, which makes it clear they need him scoring to win games. This game is in Berlin, but it counts as a home game and he has scored in the last 4/4 home games.
Derrick Henry -145
With Lamar now back, the Ravens will get more redzone chances. Henry is guarenteed to get some redzone opportunities. He punched one in last game and we expect him to set the tone of this game early.
Rico Dowdle -145
Dowdle has taken over RB1 duties with Hubbard out and has performed. Last week he scored 2 touchdowns against the Packers who have a strong defense. This week Dowdle goes up against one of the worst teams. Dowdle has scored in 4 of his last 5 home games.
Christian McCaffrey -170
McCaffrey is the 49ers identity. If he isn’t scoring with all of the injuries they have, they have no chance at winning. He has scored in 5 of his last 6 games and already scored against the Rams this season.
Josh Jacobs -160
Jacobs is even more likely to find the endzone this week without TE Tucker Kraft in the lineup. The Packers will lean on him to punch in at least one touchdown, but I can see him getting 2.
